Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints
Line: Cowboys -2.5
Total: 47.5
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
When: Sunday, 9/29, at 8:20 p.m. ET.
TV: NBC
When NFL opening lines were released for the entire season by CG Technology in May, the New Orleans Saints were slated as seven-point home favorites against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 4.
Things have changed.
Drew Brees is out for an extended period of time with a thumb injury. The Cowboys are off to a 3-0 start both straight up and against the spread, winning each game by double digits.
Dallas is now a 2.5-point road favorite — a 9.5-point adjustment from the preseason line. The total is down from 51 to 47.
Miami’s latest blowout loss came at the hands of Dallas, 31-6. Dak Prescott is off to a hot start, throwing for 920 yards and nine touchdowns through three games. He has thrown only two interceptions and rushed for 88 yards on 11 carries.
Ezekiel Elliot is also playing well early in the season. He has totaled 289 yards on 55 attempts and has scored two touchdowns. Backup running back Tony Pollard has 149 yards on 30 rushes.
Prescott’s favorite target has been Amari Cooper, who has caught 16 passes for 238 yards and four touchdowns. Michael Gallup, Randall Cobb and Jason Witten each have eclipsed the double-digit receptions mark.
New Orleans was forced to replace Brees when he was knocked out in the first quarter of the Saints’ Week 2 loss to the Los Angeles Rams. In his stead, Teddy Bridgewater has been efficient. He led the Saints to a road win against the Seattle Seahawks last week.
Bridgewater has completed 63 percent of his passes and hasn’t been intercepted yet on 57 pass attempts.
Alvin Kamara, the featured back for New Orleans, has carried the ball 42 times for 211 yards and a touchdown. He also has 17 receptions for 179 yards. Latavius Murray has 13 attempts for 52 yards.
The top target for the Saints has been Michael Thomas—and it isn’t close. Thomas has 25 receptions for 266 yards and a touchdown, whereas no other wide receiver on the roster has more than nine catches.
While Dallas has exceeded expectations in all three games to start the season, the Cowboys’ opponents have a combined 1-8 record. New Orleans is 7-2 ATS all-time at home against Dallas, but the Cowboys earned a win at home against the Saints last season.
The Saints are also 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.
According to Pregame, money has been all over the Cowboys so far, with 70 percent of the tickets and 68 percent of the cash on Dallas. Bettors also like the ‘over,’ as 85 percent of tickets and 68 percent of cash is on the ‘over.’
The Pick: Saints +2.5
There has been a massive correction to the preseason line between these two teams. Some of the move has been merited, no doubt, but the Saints seem to have value as underdogs here.
New Orleans has covered in five of its last six games as a home ‘dog, including four outright wins.
Dallas has been impressive through three games, but the Cowboys have not faced a real test so far. Bridgewater is one of the best backup quarterbacks in the NFL and the Saints crowd advantage in a prime time game is one of the best in the league, so New Orleans at +2.5 is a smart play.