The numbers for the sides and totals for all 16 Week 1 games have been posted after the NFL released its entire 2025 schedule Wednesday night.
We already hit on the numbers and props for Dallas at Philadelphia in their season openers on Thursday, Sept. 4.
Twenty-four hours later on Friday at Corinthians Arena in Sao Paulo, Brazil, the Kansas City Chiefs will take on the Los Angeles Chargers in an AFC West showdown. As of early Thursday afternoon, most books had Andy Reid’s team installed as a 2.5-point favorite with the total in the 43.5 to 44.5 range.
Jim Harbuagh’s squad had +130 money-line odds at BetOnline, and it was +118 at Caesars.
Kansas City has won seven games in a row over the Chargers, but six of those seven games have been one-possession contests. The Chiefs are only 4-3 against the spread in those seven victories, winning 17-10 as 6.5-point road favorites and 19-17 in a non-covering win as 4.5-point home ‘chalk’ last season.
The ‘under’ hit in both of those games and each of the last three head-to-head encounters.
The Week 1 games during Sunday’s early window at 1:00 p.m. Eastern include Pittsburgh at New York Jets, Miami at Indianapolis, Carolina at Jacksonville, New York Giants at Washington, Cincinnati at Cleveland, Las Vegas at New England, Arizona at New Orleans and Tampa Bay at Atlanta.
The late window has a pair of games kicking at 4:05 p.m. Eastern (Tennessee at Denver and San Francisco at Seattle) and two more that come off the board at 4:25 (Detroit at Green Bay and Houston at Los Angeles Rams).
Buffalo will host Baltimore on Sunday Night Football in a rematch of last year’s AFC semifinals thriller won by the Bills, 27-25, when Ravens’ veteran tight end Mark Andrews coughed up a fumble in the fourth quarter and dropped a tying two-point conversion pass from Lamar Jackson in the final minute.
On Monday Night Football, Chicago will take on Minnesota at Soldier Field. As of early Thursday afternoon, most books had the Bears listed as one-point home favorites with a total of 44.5 or 45.
The Vikings won 30-27 at Chicago in overtime as three-point road favorites last season, and they blasted the Bears 30-12 as seven-point home ‘chalk.’
However, Minnesota will likely be giving a rookie quarterback in JJ McCarthy, who missed all of last season injured after he was taken early in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, his first career start on the road in a division rivalry.
Most shops have Pittsburgh as a three-point home favorite vs. the Jets, who have a new head coach (former Detroit DC Aaron Glenn) and QB in former Steeler Justin Fields. The total is 39.5 points at most spots.
Mike Tomlin’s team is hoping to sign veteran Aaron Rodgers as its new starting QB in the coming weeks.
Most books have the Colts as one or 1.5-point home favorites vs. Miami. Indianapolis is set to have a QB competition at training camp between Anthony Richardson, the club’s 2023 first-round pick with the fourth overall selection, and Daniel Jones, the veteran who was the Giants’ starter for six seasons until that changed 10 games into the 2024 campaign.
Jacksonville is -2.5 or -3 vs. Carolina at most books, while the total is 46.5 points. The Panthers are +122 on the money line at Caesars.
Washington is a seven-point home favorite vs. the Giants, who will have Russell Wilson making his debut after signing a lucrative one-year deal with the club. This is my favorite play of Week 1, as I’ll be heavily endorsed with a play on the Commanders -7.
I’m also solidly invested on Washington’s season win total ‘over’ 9.5 wins at a -105 price at FanDuel. Furthermore, I’m backing the Commanders to win the NFC East for a +240 payout (FanDuel).
Why, you ask? Well, the main reason is Jayden Daniels, who is clearly one of the NFL’s top-five signal callers after enjoying a spectacular rookie campaign that ended in the NFC Championship Game. But I’m also bullish on a pair of offseason acquisitions in veteran OT Laremy Tunsil and WR Deebo Samuel.
The 30-year-old Tunsil is a five-time Pro-Bowl selection who remains one of the NFL’s premier OTs. Samuel, who is still in his prime at the age of 29, is going into a contract year.
Washington got both players without having to give up a future first-round pick. The Commanders also addressed the o-line with their first-round pick, Oregon OT Josh Conerly Jr., and then took Ole Miss CB Trey Amos in the second round. Many draft pundits had a first-round grade on Amos, who had 13 passes broken up, three interceptions and one forced fumble for the Rebels in 2024.
Most books have the Bengals installed as 5.5 or six-point road favorites at Cleveland. They ended a six-game losing streak at the Dawg Pound with a 21-14 win over the Browns as 5.5-point road ‘chalk’ last year.
The total is all over the place in the 45 to 46.5 range, while Cleveland is +210 on the money line.
Most spots have the Patriots as three-point home favorites vs. the Raiders with a total of 43.5. Las Vegas has +115 money-line odds.
Pete Carroll is the new head coach for owner Mark Davis, who has brought in his former Seattle QB in Geno Smith. The Raiders are hoping RB Ashton Jeanty, the team’s first-round pick with the sixth overall selection, is going to be the offense’s catalyst from the jump.
To help Smith and Jeanty, Las Vegas signed veteran free agents in OG Alex Cappa and RB Raheem Mostert. The Raiders also drafted three WRs, including second-rounder Jack Bech out of TCU and fourth-rounder Dont’e Thornton, a speedster who played at Tennessee.
New England has also made offseason noise by adding players like OT Will Campbell, WR Stefon Diggs, DE Harold Landry, CB Maxwell Hairston, EDGE Landon Jackson, WR Kyle Williams, DT Milton Williams and CB Carlton Davis.
Arizona is listed as a 4.5-point road favorite at New Orleans. The total is in the 41.5 to 42.5 range, and the Saints have +192 money-line odds.
With Derek Carr retiring in the last week, New Orleans will have three QBs – Jake Haener, Spencer Rattler and Tyler Shough – battling for the starting job at training camp. Shough was the club’s second-round pick after a standout year at Louisville.
Most books have Tampa Bay favored by 1.5 to 2.5 points at Atlanta, while the total is 48 or 48.5. The Falcons won both games last season and own a 4-1 record both straight up and ATS in the last five games in this NFC South rivalry. They won a 36-30 overtime thriller as 2.5-point home favorites last October before winning a 31-26 decision as 1.5-point road ‘chalk’ three weeks later.
The ‘over’ has cashed in three straight Atlanta-Tampa Bay games and four of the last five.
The rest of the spreads include Denver -7.5 vs. Tennessee (42 to 43.5 range), San Francisco -1.5 at Seattle (45.5), Detroit pick ’em at Green Bay (49.5), L.A. Rams -3 vs. Houston (45.5) and Buffalo -1.5 vs. Baltimore (52.5).
My favorite pick among those games is Detroit pick ’em at Green Bay. The Lions are going to be on a mission after their postseason collapse that was caused by more than a half-dozen injuries to starters on the defensive side of the ball.
Dan Campbell’s team dominated the Packers at Lambeau Field last season.