With the NFC North and the #1 seed in the NFC up for grabs on Sunday Night Football, Detroit (15-2 straight up, 12-5 against the spread) shook off a slow start offensively and poured it on Minnesota in the second half of a 31-9 win as a three-point home favorite. The 40 combined points dropped ‘under’ the 56.5-point total.
Bettors tailing my predictions collected another 2.5 units of profit (scroll down to predictions at the bottom of the page), as I went 2-0 backing the Lions -2.5 for one unit (the line last Monday morning) and their Team Total to go ‘over’ 29.5 points for 1.5 units. I produced 3.5 units of profit with a 2-0 record on Detroit in its Week 17 win at San Francisco.
Dan Campbell’s team covered the number for its backers on first-half bets, too, thanks to Jake Bates’s 48-yard field goal as time expired. Detroit went to halftime with a 10-6 lead after being favored by 1.5 points at most books for first-half wagers.
The Lions also got the cash in the first quarter as 0.5-point ‘chalk.’ RB Jahmyr Gibbs opened the scoring with 1:43 left in the opening stanza on a 25-yard touchdown run to cap a nine-play, 78-yard drive that chewed up more than five minutes of clock.
Gibbs finished with 139 rushing yards and three TDs on 23 attempts. He also had five catches for 31 yards, including a TD reception on the game’s biggest play.
Minnesota cut Detroit’s lead to 10-9 with 9:55 left in the third quarter on a 51-yard field goal by Will Reichard. On the ensuing drive, the Lions advanced to the Vikings’ 12 before Gibbs was limited to a two-yard gain on a third-and-four play.
Facing a fourth-and-two situation, QB Jared Goff recognized his mismatch with LB Andrew Van Ginkel responsible for Gibbs coming out of the backfield. He delivered a strike to Gibbs, who had easily sprinted past Van Ginkel, for a 10-yard TD pass to put his team ahead, 17-9.
With 13:06 left in the fourth quarter, Gibbs scored on a 13-yard TD scamper. He was in the end zone again to put the game on ice with 5:14 remaining on a four-yard TD run. That score put the Lions’ Team Total ‘over.’
“He’s as explosive as any player in the league,” Minnesota coach Kevin O’Connell said about Gibbs after the game.
Goff completed 27-of-33 passes for 231 yards and one TD with a pair of interceptions. Nevertheless, he still has a 19/4 TD-INT ratio in Detroit’s last nine games.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown hauled in six receptions for 77 yards, and TE Sam LaPorta had seven catches for 63 yards. But the story of the game was the defensive effort from the Lions, who have dealt with injuries galore throughout the season.
After missing six games with a broken forearm, LB Alex Anzalone was back in the lineup and had a team-high seven tackles, one QB hit, and one pass broken up. CB Amik Robertson enjoyed a terrific performance, contributing five tackles and one PBU. The fifth-year player helped limit Minnesota WR Justin Jefferson to merely three catches for 54 yards on nine targets.
Detroit DE Za’Darius Smith recorded three tackles, two QB hits, one sack and one PBU. Al-Quadin Muhammad had two tackles, one sack and one of the Lions’ 10 total QB hits on Sam Darnold, who connected on just 18-of-41 throws for 166 yards.
Minnesota (14-3 SU, 11-5-1 ATS) had its nine-game winning streak snapped. The Vikings hadn’t lost since a 30-20 setback at the Los Angeles Rams back on Oct. 24. Their three defeats have come against the Lions (twice) and the Rams.
O’Connell’s team is now the NFC’s #5 seed and will have a chance to avenge all three of those losses. Minnesota will face the Rams on Monday night and if it advances past Wild Card Weekend, will return to Detroit for the Divisional Round.
As of Monday afternoon, most books had the Vikings listed as 1.5-point road favorites against the Rams. The total was set at 47 points.
FanDuel has Detroit as the +320 ‘chalk’ to win Super Bowl LIX. The next-shortest odds belong to the Chiefs (+370), the Ravens (+550), the Bills (+600), the Eagles (+650) and the Vikings (+1400 or 14/1). The longshots include Tampa Bay (22/1), Green Bay (22/1), the L.A. Chargers (25/1), the L.A. Rams (35/1), Washington (40/1), Pittsburgh (85/1), Denver (85/1) and Houston (100/1).
The Lions are +130 favorites to win the NFC Championship Game. The Vikings have the third-shortest odds (+650) behind only the Eagles, who have +320 odds to get back to the Super Bowl for the second time in three seasons.