Let’s hit on some injury intel, ATS nuggets and much more going into Week 5 of the 2023 NFL season.
-The Colts and Jonathan Taylor have agreed on three-year, $42 million extension, including $26.5M in guaranteed money. As of Saturday afternoon, most books had Indianapolis (2-2 straight up, 2-2 against the spread) listed as a 2.5-point home underdog vs. Tennessee. The Colts are 0-2 both SU and ATS in a pair of home games, while the Titans are 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS in two road assignments.
Tennessee (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) has won five games in a row and six of the last seven against Indy both SU and ATS. The ‘under’ is 7-1 for the Titans in their last eight games. The ‘under’ has cashed in back-to-back games and three of the last four in this rivalry. The total was 42.5 points.
Indy will be without two starters on defense, DE Kwity Paye and LB Shaq Leonard. Taylor has practiced this week and has a chance of making his season debut. He was listed as ‘questionable’ Saturday afternoon.
The Titans will be without four players due to injuries, including WR Treylon Burks, DL Teair Tart, LB Luke Gifford and OT Nicholas Petit-Frere.
-As of Saturday afternoon, Detroit (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) was installed as a 9.5-point home favorite vs. winless Carolina. The Panthers are 0-2 both SU and ATS on the road, while the Lions are 1-1 both SU and ATS at home. They’ve had several extra days of rest and preparation after capturing a 34-20 win at Green Bay last Thursday.
Detroit star WR Amon-Ra St. Brown has been downgraded to ‘doubtful’ due to an abdomen injury. St. Brown has 26 receptions for 331 yards and two touchdowns. Rookie safety Brian Branch is ‘out’ with an ankle injury. Branch is the Lions’ second-leading tackler with 25 tackles, four passes broken up and one interception that he returned 50 yards for a TD.
Detroit has a slew of impact players listed as ‘questionable,’ including RB Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring), WR Josh Reynolds (groin), OT Taylor Decker (ankle), OG Halapoulivaati Vaitai (knee), WR Jameson Williams (non-injury) and CB Emmanuel Moseley (knee).
–Houston (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS), a 1.5-point underdog at Atlanta, will be looking for its third straight victory on Sunday. The Texans are in a four-way tie for first place in the AFC South with Indy, Jacksonville and Tennessee. They’re getting elite QB play from rookie C.J. Stroud, who has completed 62.3 percent of his passes for 1,212 yards with a 6/0 TD-INT ratio. WR Nico Collins has 22 catches for 428 yards and three TDs.
Atlanta (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) has lost back-to-back games at Detroit (20-6) and vs. Jacksonville (23-7) in London. The ‘under’ has hit at a 3-1 overall clip for the Falcons, who are ranked last in the NFL in passing yards (156.3 YPG) and are averaging a pedestrian 15.5 points per game.
The Texans are hoping to get three-time Pro-Bowl OT Laremy Tunsil back this week. He’s listed as ‘questionable’ after missing his team’s last three contests. I’m on Houston +1.5 because it has a better head coach and a better QB.
–Buffalo, a 5.5-point favorite vs. Jacksonville in London, will be without two defensive starters in CB Tre’Davious White and DE Greg Rousseau. However, Von Miller has a good chance of making his season debut, although he’ll probably be on pitch count in terms of his snaps.
-The Rams are the NFL’s best ATS team with a 3-0-1 spread record. The following clubs are 3-1 ATS: San Francisco, Seattle, Arizona, Tampa Bay, Detroit, Buffalo, Tennessee, Green Bay, Dallas, Miami and Baltimore.
-The Giants are the NFL’s worst ATS team with a 0-4 spread ledger. Carolina, Cincinnati, Denver and New Orleans are 0-3-1 ATS.
-The ‘over’ is perfect 5-0 for the Bears, who picked up their first win Thursday at Washington. The ‘over’ is 3-1 for the Dolphins, Broncos, Eagles, Colts, Cardinals, Packers and Dolphins.
-The ‘under’ is a perfect 4-0 for the Saints.
-After missing his team’s first four games, L.A. Rams star WR Cooper Kupp will make his season debut at home against Philadelphia. As of Saturday afternoon, most books had the Eagles listed as four-point road favorites. They’re 2-0 both SU and ATS in a pair of road assignments. Philadelphia is going to be without star DT Fletcher Cox and starting OG Cam Jurgens.
–New England (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) is going to be without two of its best defensive players, rookie CB Christian Gonzalez (shoulder) and Matthew Judon, at home vs. New Orleans. The Pats, who are 0-2 both SU and ATS going into this spot as short home ‘chalk,’ will be without Judon for at least two months. He has already had surgery for a lower bicep tendon tear.
–San Francisco (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) was a 3.5-point home favorite vs. Dallas at most books on Saturday afternoon. The 49ers have ousted the Cowboys by margins of six and seven points in the last two postseasons. I backed San Francisco -3 on the look-ahead line last week. They’ll meet at 8:20 p.m. Eastern in Santa Clara on Sunday night on NBC.
–Las Vegas will have QB Jimmy Garoppolo (5/6 TD-INT ratio) back for Monday Night Football when his team hosts Green Bay. He missed last week’s loss to the Chargers due to a concussion.