Updated on Tuesday, 1/9/24, at 2:45 p.m. Eastern.
The NFL’s Super Wild Card lineup is set. It all starts with a doubleheader on Saturday, followed by Sunday’s tripleheader before Philadelphia limps into Tampa Bay on Monday night.
Houston (10-7 straight up, 9-8 against the spread) won the AFC South after taking care of its business in Saturday night’s 23-19 win at Indianapolis. The Texans secured a postseason spot with their win over the Colts, but they needed Jacksonville to lose at Tennessee to win the division.
The Titans led 21-10 at halftime, 28-10 in the fourth quarter and held off the Jaguars, 28-20, as 3.5-point home underdogs Sunday afternoon.
With an assist from the Titans, Houston gets a home game Saturday vs. Cleveland at 3:30 p.m. Eastern on NBC. As of early Monday afternoon, most books had the Browns installed as 2.5-point road favorites with a total of 44.
The Texans were +120 on the money line.
DeMeco Ryans’ team hosted Cleveland on Christmas Eve, with the Browns winning 36-22 as three-point road ‘chalk.’ However, Houston star rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud missed the game due to a concussion. Furthermore, two of the Texans’ top players on defense, rookie Will Anderson and LB Blake Cashman, were also out with injuries.
All three players are healthy now. In fact, Stroud completed 20-of-26 throws for 264 yards and two touchdowns without an interception Saturday at Indianapolis. Cashman had 13 tackles against the Colts.
For the season, Cashman has recorded 106 tackles, nine tackles for loss, five QB hits, five passes broken up, two sacks, one interception and one fumble recovery in 14 games.
In 15 games, Anderson has 45 tackles, 22 QB hits, 10 TFL’s, seven sacks and one PBU. Stroud also played in 15 games, completing 63.9 percent of his passes for 4,108 yards with a 23/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Houston has a 9-4 record in Stroud’s last 13 starts after starting the year by losing its first two games. He also has 167 rushing yards, three TDs and a 4.3 yards-per-carry average.
The Texans will be without multiple starters on the offensive line, but it’s been that way for more than a month. Another key contributor they’ll be missing in the playoffs is rookie WR Tank Dell, who had 47 catches for 709 yards and seven TDs in 11 games.
Cleveland (11-6 SU, 11-6 ATS) won’t be shedding any tears for Houston’s injuries. The Browns have enjoyed a stellar campaign despite losing a slew of their best players throughout the year, including RB Nick Chubb, QB Deshaun Watson, OT Jack Conklin, OT Jedrick Willis, safety Grant Delpit and LB Anthony Walker.
With Watson’s various injuries (before the season-ender) causing him to miss games, Cleveland started rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson three times this year and P.J. Walker twice. The duo combined for an atrocious 2/9 TD-INT ratio.
Therefore, the Browns went and pulled a proven veteran from off the streets. Joe Flacco, who won a Super Bowl in 2012 and guided Baltimore to six postseason appearances and had a 10-5 record in 15 career playoff starts from 2008-14, was more than willing to sign with Cleveland at the age of 38.
(Side Note: In Flacco’s six starts that were the first game for the Ravens in the playoffs, they went 6-0.)
Flacco started five games for the Browns down the stretch, going 4-1. He proved he can still spin it, completing 60.3 percent of his passes for 1,616 yards with a 13/8 TD-INT ratio.
With its postseason bid secured, Cleveland rested a slew of key players like Flacco, WR Amari Cooper, DE Myles Garrett, CB Greg Newsome, TE David Njoku and safety Juan Thornhill in Sunday’s regular-season finale.
In Saturday’s primetime affair on Peacock at 8:15 p.m. Eastern, third-seeded Kansas City (11-6 SU, 9-8 ATS) will host sixth-seeded Miami in a rematch of the Chiefs’ 21-14 win over the Dolphins on Nov. 5 at Frankfurt Stadium in Germany.
As of early Monday, most spots had Andy Reid’s squad listed as a 3.5-point home favorite with a total of 44. The Dolphins were +160 on the money line.
In the first meeting, Kansas City took a 21-0 lead into halftime thanks to a pair of TD passes from Patrick Mahomes and a defensive TD from Bryan Cook on a 59-yard fumble return.
But Miami answered in the third quarter with TDs on a 31-yard pass from Tua Tagovailoa to Cedric Wilson and a 13-yard TD run from Raheem Mostert.
After forcing a Kansas City punt, Miami generated four first downs and advanced to KC’s 38. However, a six-yard loss on a running play and an 11-yard sack on Tagovailoa forced the ‘Fins to punt on 4th and 27.
Miami’s last drive advanced to KC’s 31 on a 19-yard run by Mostert, but the next three plays were incompletions. The Chiefs then secured a 21-14 win thanks to a stop on fourth down.
Miami lost 21-14 as a three-point home underdog last night vs. Buffalo, allowing the Bills to win the AFC East and garner the conference’s No. 2 seed.
Instead of hosting a home game on Sunday in South Florida, Miami (11-6 SU, 10-7 ATS) is now on a short week and has to play at a cold-weather venue. As of Monday, weather.com’s forecast for Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday night is calling for a low temperature of -3 degrees Fahrenheit and 10-15 mile per hour winds.
The Dolphins are 4-3 both SU and ATS in seven road assignments, while the Chiefs are 4-4 both SU and ATS in eight home games. Like the Browns in their regular-season finale, Kansas City rested many of its top players like Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce, CB L’Jarius Sneed, OT Donovan Smith, WR Rashee Rice and DT Chris Jones in Sunday’s 13-12 home win over the Chargers.
Miami was without three of its best players – Mostert, CB Xavien Howard and WR Jaylen Waddle (ankle) – in the loss to the Bills. Mostert, who had 1,012 rushing yards, 18 TDs, a 4.8 yards-per-carry average, 25 catches, 175 receiving yards and three TD receptions in 15 games, is listed as ‘questionable’ at Kansas City with an ankle injury.
Waddle (ankle) is also ‘questionable,’ while DE Bradley Chubb was lost to a season-ending injury in Week 17. In 14 games this season, Waddle had 72 catches for 1,014 yards and four TDs.
Miami announced Monday that three of its LBs – Andrew Van Ginkel, Jerome Baker and Cameron Goode – are now out for the season. Starting OLB Jaelan Phillips was lost to a season-ending injury earlier in the year.
The Dolphins also announced Monday that they don’t expect Howard back against the Chiefs. Howard, a Pro-Bowl selection in four of the past five seasons, has recorded 45 tackles, 12 passes broken up, one interception, one QB hit and one tackle for loss in 13 regular-season games this year. Van Ginkel has played in all 17 games, producing 69 tackles, 19 QB hits, eight TFL’s, eight PBU, six sacks, one fumble recovery for a 29-yard return and one interception returned 33 yards for a TD.
After those announcements on Monday, most spots nudged Kansas City up to -4.
Sunday’s tripleheader starts in Buffalo, where the Bills will host Pittsburgh at 1:00 p.m. Eastern on CBS. As of Monday, weather.com’s forecast for Buffalo on Sunday afternoon was predicting gusty winds from 20-30 miles per hour and a low temperature of 23 degrees.
Most books had Buffalo (11-6 SU, 7-9-1 ATS) as a 10-point home favorite with a total of 36. The Steelers were +400 on the money line.
The Bills are 7-1 SU and 4-4 ATS in eight home games, while Pittsburgh (10-7 SU, 10-7 ATS) is 5-3 both SU and ATS in eight road assignments.
Buffalo built itself a huge hole by losing four of six games from Oct. 8 to Nov. 13. Since then, though, the Bills are 6-1 SU and 4-2-1 ATS, including five wins in a row. The lone defeat in that stretch was a 37-34 overtime loss at Philadelphia.
Mike Tomlin’s team has faced the Bills eight times since he took over as head coach in 2007, producing a 5-3 SU record and a 4-4 ATS mark. The Steelers have played at Buffalo in five of those eight meetings, going 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS.
But when these teams met at Orchard Park last year, Buffalo won 38-3 as a 14-point home favorite. In 2021, however, Pittsburgh won 23-16 at Buffalo as a 6.5-point road underdog. The ‘under’ has cashed in each of the last four head-to-head meetings and is 7-1 in the last eight games in this rivalry.
Pittsburgh made the playoffs by winning its last three regular-season games both SU and ATS, including back-to-back road wins at Seattle and at Baltimore. The common theme in those three games was veteran backup QB Mason Rudolph, who made his first three starts of the year.
Rudolph has been spectacular. In those three starts (and one relief appearance when he attempted only three passes), Rudolph has connected on 55-of-74 throws (74.3%) for 719 yards and three TDs without an interception.
Pittsburgh is going to be without LB T.J. Watt and possibly safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, who have 10 Pro-Bowl selections between them in their 13 combined seasons in the NFL. Watt was ruled ‘out’ Tuesday, while Fitzpatrick is ‘questionable.’ Watt sprained his MCL in Saturday’s win at Baltimore, while Fitzpatrick has missed four straight games with a knee injury.
In 17 regular-season games, the 29-year-old Watt produced 68 tackles, 36 QB hits, an NFL-best 19 sacks, eight PBU, four forced fumbles, three fumble recoveries, one interception and one scoop-and-score TD on a fumble return.
In Sunday’s second game on FOX at 4:30 p.m. Eastern, second-seeded Dallas will host Green Bay in a renewal of one of the NFC’s most storied rivalries. As of early Monday, most spots had Dallas (12-5 SU, 10-7 ATS) installed as a 7.5-point home favorite with a total of 49.5. The Packers were +300 on the money line.
Dallas is undefeated in eight home games with a 6-2 ATS record, while Green Bay (9-8 SU, 9-8 ATS) is 4-5 both SU and ATS in nine road contests. The Packers have won four games in a row over Dallas both SU and ATS, and they’re 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head meetings.
The ‘over’ has hit in the last four games of this rivalry as well, with combined scores of 59, 58, 66 and 65 points. These teams met at Lambeau Field last season, with Green Bay capturing a 31-28 win in overtime as a four-point home underdog.
In Sunday’s primetime contest, Detroit (12-5 SU, 12-5 ATS) will host the Los Angeles Rams at 8:15 p.m. Eastern on NBC. As of early Monday, most betting shops had the Lions listed as 3.5-point home ‘chalk’ (at an even-money price at some books) with a total of 51.5.
The Rams (10-7 SU, 10-6-1 ATS) were +155 on the money line. They finished the regular season on a four-game winning streak and have won seven of their last eight. L.A.’s lone defeat during its 7-1 run was an overtime loss at Baltimore.
The ‘over’ has also cashed in three straight games and six of the last seven for the Rams, who are 4-3-1 ATS with two outright victories in eight games as underdogs this year.
Dan Campbell’s squad is 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS in eight home games, while the Rams are 5-4 SU and 5-3-1 ATS in nine road outings. Since an overtime loss vs. Seattle at home in Week 2, Detroit has won six of its last seven home games with five of those victories coming by double-digit margins.
Detroit might be without two playmakers on offense. TE Sam LaPorta and WR Jameson Williams are both listed as ‘questionable.’ LaPorta has enjoyed a terrific rookie campaign, hauling in 86 receptions for 889 yards and 10 TDs. He hyperextended his knee in Sunday’s 30-20 home win over Minnesota.
The good news on the injury front for the Lions was yesterday’s return of veteran DB C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who tore his pectoral muscle in Week 2. However, he returned for the regular-season finale and recorded four tackles and had the game-sealing interception.
Detroit might also get LB James Houston back this week. Houston, who had 11 QB hits and eight sacks in only seven games as a rookie in 2022, was injured in Week 2 just like Gardner-Johnson. He’s been practicing in recent weeks on a limited basis and is listed as ‘questionable’ vs. L.A.
I like the Lions -3 if you can get that number.
On Monday Night Football, Tampa Bay (9-8 SU, 11-6 ATS) will take on slumping Philadelphia in the Sunshine State at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ABC and ESPN. As of early Monday, the Eagles were 2.5-point road favorites with a total of 44. The Buccaneers were +125 on the money line.
Philadelphia (11-6 SU, 6-8-3 ATS) has had issues galore in the past month. The Eagles are 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in their last six games since the start of December.
Making matters worse, they saw two of their best players, QB Jalen Hurts (finger on throwing hand) and WR AJ Brown (knee), leave Sunday’s 27-10 loss to the Giants as 4.5-point road ‘chalk’ with injuries. In addition, starters like WR DeVonta Smith (leg), CB Darius Slay (knee) and RB DeAndre Swift (illness) didn’t dress out against the Giants.
Slay had knee surgery in mid-December and isn’t expected back this week. Hurts, Brown, Smith and Swift are considered day-to-day, and we should know more about their status later in the week.
Tampa Bay is 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS in eight home games, while the Eagles are 5-4 SU and 4-4-1 ATS in nine road assignments.
When these teams met at Raymond James Stadium in Week 3 on Sept. 25, Philadelphia won a 25-11 decision as a 5.5-point road favorite. The 36 combined points dropped ‘under’ the 44-point total.
After the Bucs tied the game at 3-3 midway through the second quarter, the Eagles scored 22 unanswered points to take a 25-3 lead with 13:28 remaining. Philadelphia had a 27-12 advantage in first downs and a 478-174 advantage in total yards.
Swift led the way with 130 rushing yards on 16 carries, while Brown had nine receptions for 131 yards. Hurts was intercepted twice, but he threw for 277 yards and one TD. He also had 28 rushing yards and one TD.
Tampa Bay won five of its last six games, going 4-2 ATS, to win the NFC South. The ‘under’ has cashed in three straight games for the Bucs to improve to 11-6 overall.
In Tampa Bay’s last five games, QB Baker Mayfield has a 10/2 TD-INT ratio. On the flip side, Hurts has only four TD passes compared to five interceptions in the Eagles’ last four games.
Update: The Eagles were up to -3 as of Tuesday afternoon.