As of Tuesday morning, most betting shops had Detroit (12-1 straight up, 9-4 against the spread) installed as a 1.5 or two-point home favorite for Sunday’s showdown vs. Buffalo. The total was 54.5 or 55 points.
Most spots had the Lions at a -125 or -130 price on the money line, while the Bills had +105 or +110 odds to win outright.
I made Detroit a four-point home favorite in this spot. Like I’ve said many times in recent months, I’d take the Lions as three-point home ‘chalk’ against any opponent in the NFL.
They’ve won 11 games in a row, going 8-3 ATS, but one of those ATS setbacks was last week when they closed as 3.5-point home favorites in a 34-31 win over Green Bay. I was on Detroit for winners in the first half (-2.5) when it led 17-7 at halftime, its Team Total ‘over’ 13.5 in the first half and its Team Total ‘over’ 27.5 for the game. I had Dan Campbell’s team -3 for the game, so that was obviously a push, as the line was mostly at -3 throughout the week.
Buffalo (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS) is off a 44-42 loss at the Los Angeles Rams this past Sunday. The Bills fell to 4-3 both SU and ATS in their seven road assignments, while Detroit is 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS in seven home contests.
Detroit quarterback Jared Goff has a 15/2 TD-INT ratio in those seven home contests. Like Goff, Buffalo QB Josh Allen is enjoying another spectacular campaign. Nevertheless, we’ll note that he has just a 5/3 TD-INT ratio in the Bills’ three previous road outings.
Finally, let’s point out how the spot certainly favors Detroit. The Lions have rest advantage here after beating Green Bay in a home game last Thursday.
On the flip side, Buffalo had to make the long flight back from Southern California to upstate New York that saw it get back home well after midnight with the taste of defeat in its mouth. Now the Bills are on the road for a second straight week.
PREDICTIONS: Let’s risk 2.5 units to win two on Detroit on the money line at a -125 price. I’ll also risk 1.18 units to win one on the Lions’ Team Total to go ‘over’ 27.5 points at a -118 price (FanDuel). And finally, let’s go with one-half unit on Detroit in the first half either at -1.5 (at even money via FanDuel) or -0.5 points at a -115 price at multiple shops.
As for the play on Detroit’s Team Total to go ‘over,’ the Lions have scored 42, 52, 52, 23 and 34 points in their last five home games. The lone outlier falling South of the 28-point mark was the 23-point output on Thanksgiving Day vs. Chicago. Detroit should’ve scored 38-42 points in that game.
However, 17 first downs and nearly 300 yards of offense in the first half resulted in merely 16 points. RB Jahmyr Gibbs had a fumble in the red zone. The Lions also settled for field goals of 30 and 36 yards on separate go-to-goal opportunities, and they also missed a field goal.
Whatever the case, I’m extremely confident that the Lions get to at least 31-35 points, especially against a Buffalo defense that was torched for 44 points this past weekend.