As of late this morning, most betting shops had Philadelphia (11-6 straight up, 6-8-3 against the spread) installed as a three-point favorite tonight at Tampa Bay. The total was 43 points, while the Buccaneers were +135 on the money line.
For first-half wagers, the Eagles were -1 (although Circa and South Point had them -1.5) with a total of 20.5 points.
In general, I’m not overly enamored with Tampa Bay (9-8 SU, 11-6 ATS), which is the last team standing from an abysmal NFC South division. The Buccaneers are only 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS in eight home games, while Philadelphia is 5-4 SU and 4-4-1 ATS on the road.
However, similar to my thinking in successfully backing Kansas City -4 vs. Miami on Saturday, it just seems like you can only take Tampa Bay in this spot. The Eagles just have too many factors going against them after their late-season collapse.
For starters, they’re mired in a 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS slump since the start of December. Three of those losses have been by 17 points or more, including a 42-19 home loss vs. San Francisco, a 33-13 setback at Dallas and a 27-10 loss against the Giants as 5.5-point road ‘chalk’ last weekend.
The lone victory during this six-game slide was a 33-25 home win over the Giants, but the G-Men nearly pulled off a comeback win at ‘The Linc’ on Christmas Night. Trailing 20-3 at halftime, New York cut the Eagles’ lead to 20-18 late in the third quarter.
After Philadelphia extended the lead to 30-18 midway through the fourth quarter, Tyrod Taylor found Darius Slayton for a 69-yard touchdown pass to make it 30-25 with 5:22 remaining.
The Eagles got a field goal with 1:10 remaining for an eight-point lead, but the Giants drove 49 yards to the enemy 26-yard line. Taylor’s pass into the end zone on the game’s final play was intercepted, though.
Philadelphia’s defense has given up 34, 42, 33, 20, 25, 35 and 27 points in the last seven games. The Eagles’ stop unit is currently ranked #26 out of 32 NFL teams in total defense, #31 in pass defense and #30 in scoring ‘D,’ allowing opponents to score an average of 25.2 points per game.
That defense is going to be without starting safety Sydney Brown, who is ‘out’ tonight due to a knee injury. In 14 regular-season games during his rookie year, Brown contributed 45 tackles, three passes broken up, one tackle for loss and one 99-yard interception for a TD on New Year’s Eve vs. Arizona.
Another Brown who won’t be in uniform tonight is WR A.J. Brown, the 26-year-old superstar who had 106 receptions for 1,456 yards and seven TDs before leaving last week’s regular-season finale in the first half with a knee injury.
Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts, WR DeVonta Smith, CB Darius Slay and RB DeAndre Swift are going to play, but are any of them going to be 100-percent healthy? Slay (57 tackles, 14 PBU, 2 interceptions, 1 pick-six and 1 TFL) has missed four games in a row with a knee injury, while Smith (81 catches for 1,066 yards and 7 TDs) missed last week’s game with a leg injury.
Hurts left last week’s loss to the Giants after the middle finger on his throwing hand appeared to be dislocated, and Swift has missed practice time this week battling an illness.
The Bucs are 8-3 ATS with five outright wins in 11 games as underdogs this year. While Philadelphia has been horrible since the start of December, Tampa Bay has a 5-1 SU record and a 4-2 ATS mark, including a 34-20 win at Green Bay and a 30-12 home win vs. Jacksonville.
Baker Mayfield isn’t healthy, either, as he’s battling injuries to his ribs and ankle. Although Tampa Bay backup QB Kyle Trask has minimal NFL experience, he had a spectacular collegiate career and looked outstanding during preseason games back in August.
If Hurts’s finger is an issue again tonight, the Eagles have Marcus Mariota as their backup signal caller. I watched Mariota play a lot of terrible football for my Falcons last year, so I think the Bucs have the advantage if backup QBs are needed tonight.
PREDICTION: Give me Tampa Bay +3 for one unit and the Bucs +139 (Circa) on the money line for 0.25 units.