As of early Tuesday morning, most betting shops had Washington (2-2 straight up, 3-1 against the spread) installed as a three or a 3.5-point home favorite for Sunday’s home game vs. Cleveland.
Circa, Caesars and South Point had a -120 price on the Commanders at -3. Most of the shops at -3.5 had a -105 price, meaning gamblers can probably buy the half-point from -3.5 to the key number of -3 at a -125 price.
On every radio show and podcast that I did ahead of the 2024 NFL Draft, I made it crystal clear that I felt Jayden Daniels was the best quarterback in this class. I can’t declare that opinion to undoubtedly be correct at this early juncture of his rookie year, but it’s looking like a solid take to date.
In fact, the LSU product is clearly playing like a Top-10 QB in the entire NFL right now. Daniels has completed 87-of-106 passes (82.1%) for 897 yards with a 3/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also has 218 rushing yards, four TDs and a 4.7 yards-per-carry average.
Daniels was the catalyst again in Sunday’s 42-14 win at Arizona as a 3.5-point road underdog. He completed 26-of-30 throws for 233 yards and one TD, in addition to rushing for 47 yards and one TD on eight attempts.
I made the Commanders a 7.5-point favorite in this spot. We’ve obviously got an enormous advantage at the QB position. Daniels has the fourth-best QBR in the NFL (73.3).
Cleveland (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) QB Deshaun Watson has completed 61.5 percent of his passes for 727 yards with a 4/3 TD-INT ratio. However, many of his passing yards have come late in games when the Browns are trying to rally from big deficits. (They’ve been down double digits in the fourth quarter of all three of their defeats.)
Watson’s QBR (23.7) is ranked #31 in the NFL. Cleveland is ranked #31 in the NFL in total offense, #29 in passing yards, #26 in rushing yards and #27 in scoring with its 16.5 points-per-game average.
Forget about everything Watson did early in career with the Texans and during his iconic collegiate career at Clemson. Those days are long gone.
Since missing nearly all of two seasons due to off-the-field issues, Watson has played like a complete scrub since joining the Browns. He has no confidence whatsoever
On the flip side, Washington is ranked #3 in the NFL in both scoring (30.3 PPG) and rushing yards. The Commanders are #6 in total offense and #12 in passing yards.
Not only is Daniels brimming with confidence, but he’s injecting a similar bravado into his entire team.
Washington RB Brian Robinson is enjoying a breakout campaign to date, rushing for 307 yards and three TDs while averaging 4.7 yards per carry. I’m on the Commanders for a strong play against Cleveland in Week 5.
PREDICTION: Washington -3 for 2.5 units.