As of Monday morning, most books had Washington (7-2 straight up, 7-1-1 against the spread) installed as a 2.5-point home favorite for Sunday’s showdown vs. Pittsburgh. The total was 44.5 points, and the Steelers were +120 on the money line.
The oddsmakers continue to undervalue the Commanders, but we’re not complaining over here. Instead, we’re just picking, grinning and winning. We’ve backed Dan Quinn’s team in every game since Week 2, going 7-0-1 ATS.
Washington won seven of those eight games, including Sunday’s 27-22 win at the New York Giants as four-point road ‘chalk.’ Rookie QB Jayden Daniels was elite once again, completing 15-of-22 passes for 209 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. He added 35 rushing yards on eight attempts.
At this time last week on Monday morning, I sent out this tweet while in shock that I could get Washington at -3 “clean” without any extra juice. Once again, I’m hammering the Commanders, who are still -2 at Circa and -2.5 everywhere else.
I suspect that this number will settle at -3 at some point today or Tuesday. By later in the week, I think bettors will have to lay extra juice on plays backing the Commanders -3. I made Washington -4.5 vs. Pittsburgh, which has had two weeks to prepare and get healthy.
Even though that open date leaves the Steelers, who are 6-2 both SU and ATS, in an advantageous spot with rest advantage, that’s not nearly enough to give me pause about backing this red-hot squad again in Week 10.
For the season, Daniels has connected on 71.5 percent of his throws for 1,945 yards with a 9/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also has 459 rushing yards, four TDs and a 5.6 yards-per-carry average. Let’s also remember that the LSU product missed most of a 40-7 home win over Carolina in which he would’ve padded all of those season numbers.
Daniels posted a 96.0 QBR yesterday at New York. That was the second-best in the NFL behind only Lamar Jackson’s 97.1.
Daniels has the NFL’s third-best QBR (76.2) this season, with Jackson (77.3) and Joe Burrow (76.3) slightly ahead of him. His completion percentage is ranked third in the league, and he trails only Jackson for most rushing yards by a QB.
Washington WR Terry McLaurin is enjoying a breakout campaign, hauling in 42 catches for 598 yards and six TDs. The trade deadline is Tuesday, and there’s still a possibility this team will be buyers in search of another weapon for Daniels to target.
The Commanders are 4-0 both SU and ATS in four home games, while Pittsburgh is 3-1 both SU and ATS in four road assignments. Washington is also 4-0 both SU and ATS in four games as a single-digit favorite.
Quinn’s team is ranked third in the NFL in both total offense and rushing yards. Washington is #10 in the NFL in passing yards and fourth in scoring with its 29.2 points-per-game average.
The Commanders are ranked fifth in the NFL at defending the pass and #11 in scoring ‘D’ (21.0 PPG).
PREDICTION: I’m recommending a strong three-unit play on Washington -2.5.
By using the pull-down menus at this link on VegasInsider (we no longer have our own individual record pages for each sport), you can see that my picks across all sports in the last 30 days have cashed at a 41-29 ATS clip (59%, +8.5 units or +$850 on $100 plays). In the NFL, I’m on a 20-10 run (67%, +8.9 units) in the last 30 days. My overall NFL record is now 33-22 (60%, +8.49 units), which is the #1 winning percentage on VI and ranks #2 in profit leaders among all handicappers on the website.
Feel free to “tip your bartender” if the Commanders cash again. Good luck to us!