As of early Monday afternoon, most betting shops had Los Angeles (11-6 straight up, 12-5 against the spread) installed as a three-point favorite for Saturday’s showdown at Houston in the AFC’s wild card round. However, most of those books had a cheap price on the Chargers ranging from even money (+100) to -105. South Point in Las Vegas had the Bolts at -2.5.
Most spots had the total at 42.5 points, while the Texans were in the +130 to +141 (Circa) range on the money line.
For first-half wagers, Los Angeles was -1 with a total of 21 points.
L.A. enters the postseason on a three-game winning streak both SU and ATS. Since Week 8, the Chargers are 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS, with two of the defeats coming in one-possession games at home vs. Baltimore (30-23) and at Kansas City (19-17) when the Chiefs got a game-winning field goal on the game’s final play at Arrowhead Stadium.
Five of L.A.’s eight recent wins have been by double-digit margins and seven have been by at least seven points. Jim Harbaugh’s defense is ranked #1 in the NFL in scoring defense, limiting opponents to an average of 17.7 points per game.
QB Justin Herbert has enjoyed a stellar campaign, completing 65.9 percent of his passes for 3,870 yards with a 23/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The fifth-year pro also has 234 rushing yards, five TDs and a 4.3 yards-per-carry average.
Rookie WR Ladd McConkey has exceeded expectations, hauling in 82 receptions for 1,149 yards and seven TDs. WR Quentin Johnson is off a monster game with 13 catches on 14 targets for 186 yards in yesterday’s 34-20 win at Las Vegas. In 15 games this season, the second-year speedster out of TCU has snagged 55 balls for 711 yards and eight TDs.
Houston (10-7 SU, 7-8-2 ATS) is 4-5 SU and 4-4-1 ATS in its last nine games dating back to Week 9. The four wins came at Tennessee, vs. Miami, at Jacksonville and at Dallas.
The Texans have lost three of their last four home games outright, including a 32-27 loss to the Titans and a 31-2 loss vs. Baltimore. They’ve lost five of six games against teams that made the playoffs, with the lone win coming at home over Buffalo when WRs Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell were healthy.
Houston QB CJ Stroud has struggled without Diggs and Dell, who are out with season-ending injuries. In eight games this year, Diggs had 47 catches for 496 yards and three touchdowns. In 14 games this season, Dell had 51 receptions for 667 yards and three TDs.
Since Diggs went down, Stroud has a mediocre 9/9 TD-INT ratio. In 17 regular-season games, Stroud connected on 63.2 percent of his throws for 3,727 yards with a 20/12 TD-INT ratio. The Ohio St. product has a QBR that’s ranked #24 in the NFL compared to Herbert’s that’s #11.
Herbert has played at Houston twice in his career, throwing for 336 and 340 yards in those contests.
I like the Chargers, who are 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS in nine road assignments this year.
PREDICTION: Chargers -2.5 at Houston (South Point). To be clear, I’m just as bullish on Harbaugh’s bunch at -3.