As of early Wednesday afternoon, most betting shops had Denver (4-2 straight up, 2-3-1 against the spread) installed as a seven-point home favorite for Sunday’s matchup vs. the New York Giants, who will come the Mile High City with extra rest after last Thursday’s surprising 34-17 win over Philadelphia as 7.5-point home underdogs.
The total was 40.5 points, while the Giants were in the +260 to +285 range.
The G-Men’s talented rookies worked the crowd into a frenzy with their inspiring play against the arch-rival Eagles, as they led their backers to cash money-line tickets in the +330 neighborhood. QB Jaxson Dart completed 17-of-25 passes for 195 yards and one touchdown without an interception. The Ole Miss product added 58 rushing yards and one TD on 13 attempts.
RB Cam Skattebo produced 98 rushing yards and three TDs on 19 carries, and he added a pair of receptions for 12 yards.
New York (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS) is winless in three road assignments with a 1-2 spread record. In Dart’s first career road start two weeks ago at New Orleans, the Giants raced out to a 14-3 lead early in the second quarter, but they were outscored 23-0 the rest of the way in a 26-14 loss as 2.5-point road underdogs.
Brian Daboll’s team had more total yards, first downs and time of possession compared to the Saints, but the G-Men were -5 in turnover margin. New Orleans got a defensive TD to extend its lead to 26-14 on the first play of the fourth quarter en route to its first win of the season.
Denver returns home after winning in comeback fashion at Philadelphia and vs. the New York Jets in London. The Broncos won their third straight game last week thanks to Will Lutz’s go-ahead, 27-yard field goal with 5:06 remaining to seal a 13-11 win over the Jets.
Dart has 167 rushing yards, two TDs and a 5.2 yards-per-carry average this season. In his first three NFL starts, he has produced 54, 55 and 58 rushing yards to go 3-0 to the ‘over’ for his player prop on rushing yards. Going back to his senior campaign at Ole Miss, Dart had 43, 77, 71, 50 and 47 rushing yards in his last five college games.
Therefore, he’s gone North of 42.5 rushing yards in eight consecutive starts.
We’ve been on his rushing yards prop to go ‘over’ in all three of his NFL starts, and we’ll continue to do so with the number remaining in the 40s.
PREDICTIONS: As of early Wednesday afternoon, Bet365 had Dart’s prop for rushing yards at 42.5, while the Hard Rock was at 43.5. Meanwhile, I was shocked to see Dart’s prop for an anytime TD offering at +390 payout (!) at DraftKings. Let’s risk 2.2 units to win two units on Dart’s rushing yards prop to go ‘over’ 42.5 yards (Bet365, but I’m fine with making this wager up to around 48.5 if it moves or other spots post it higher later in the week). Also, give me 0.5 units to win 1.95 units on Dart to score a TD at +390 odds via DraftKings.