The Washington Commanders went 14-6 straight up and 12-7-1 against the spread in Jayden Daniels’ rookie season, and it says here that there will be no sophomore slump.
In fact, I’m expecting bigger and better things from Dan Quinn’s club in the 2025 campaign.
As of May 19, FanDuel had Washington’s season win total at 9.5 flat (-110 odds either way). The Commanders had +230 odds to win the NFC East, +1000 odds (or 10/1) to win the NFC Championship Game and were 20/1 to win Super Bowl LX. Their number was -132 to make the playoffs.
I said that Daniels was the best quarterback in the 2024 NFL Draft well before he was selected with the #2 overall pick by Washington. Whether that turns out to be the case in the long run remains to be seen, as Chicago’s Caleb Williams and New England’s Drake Maye appear to have bright futures as well.
But the early returns point to Daniels, who led Washington to the NFC Championship Game and hooked up gamblers (hand raised) with a +800 payout to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors.
In 17 regular-season games, Daniels completed 331-of-480 passes (69.0%) for 3,568 yards with a 25/9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also produced 891 rushing yards, six TDs and a 6.0 yards-per-carry average.
In three postseason contests, Daniels connected on 75-of-114 throws (65.8%) for 822 yards and five TDs compared to only one interception. He had 135 rushing yards, one TD and a 3.9 YPC average.
Daniels led Washington to a 23-20 win at Tampa Bay and a 45-31 win at Detroit before losing at Philadelphia to the eventual Super Bowl winner.
During the 2024 regular season, Daniels had a 70.6 QBR that was the fourth-best in the NFL behind only Joe Burrow, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. It was better than the QBRs for Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, Jared Goff and others.
In the playoffs, Daniels had an 86.0 QBR that was #1 among the 14 signal callers playing in the postseason. The third-best QBR was Allen’s 77.2.
Washington made it an offseason priority to add an elite weapon for Daniels and to bolster the offensive line. The Commanders achieved those goals by trading for 30-year-old offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil and 29-year-old wide receiver Deebo Samuel. They also used their first-round pick on ex-Oregon OT Josh Conerly Jr.
Samuel was a first-team All-Pro in 2021 when he had 77 receptions for 1,405 receiving yards and six TDs. He also had 365 rushing yards and eight TDs with a 6.2 YPC average.
Washington only had to part with a fifth-round pick to acquire Samuel, who is highly motivated going into the last year of his contract.
In 81 regular-season games during his first six NFL seasons, Samuel has 334 career catches for 4,792 yards and 22 TDs. He also has 1,143 career rushing yards, 20 TDs and a 5.7 YPC average.
Samuel has played in 12 career postseason games, hauling in 46 receptions for 638 yards and two TDs. He has 288 rushing yards, one TD and a 5.5 YPC average.
Tunsil is a five-time Pro-Bowl selection who has played in all 17 regular-season games in two of the last three seasons, missing only three contests during the 2023 campaign. The Commanders didn’t have to give up a first-round pick to get one of the NFL’s premier OTs.
Washington returns its top three RBs in Brian Robinson, Austin Ekeler and Jeremy McNichols, and it adds Samuel who can also line up in the backfield at any time. Robinson has rushed for more than 700 yards in each of his first three NFL seasons, producing 799 rushing yards, eight TDs and a 4.3 YPC average in 14 regular-season contests in 2024.
Daniels had instant chemistry with veteran WR Terry McLaurin, who had 82 receptions for 1,096 yards and a career-high 13 TDs. The 29-year-old McLaurin, who has missed only three games in his first six NFL seasons, had 14 catches for 227 yards and three TDs in the playoffs. He now has five consecutive 1,000-yard seasons and was selected to the Pro Bowl for the second time in his career.
TE Zach Ertz and Noah Brown are also back. Ertz had 66 receptions for 654 yards and seven TDs in 17 regular-season games, while Brown had 56 catches for 453 yards and one TD despite missing six contests.
Brown led the Commanders in receiving yards (229) during the playoffs, catching 14 balls on 18 targets for one TD. Ertz had 25 receptions for 155 yards and one TD in the postseason.
Washington is hoping that rookie Jaylin Lane and veteran Michael Gallup can provide solid depth at WR. Gallup announced his retirement at the age of 28 before training camp last year, but he’s coming back after a one-year hiatus. He played six seasons for Dallas from 2018-23.
In 14 games in 2019, Gallup had 66 receptions for 1,107 yards and six TDs. He has 266 career catches for 3,744 yards and 21 TDS in 86 games.
Lane was the Commanders’ fourth-round pick out of Virginia Tech. He had 38 receptions for 466 yards and two TDs in 12 games for the Hokies last year. Lane also had 116 rushing yards, two TDs and a 6.4 YPC average on just 18 attempts.
Washington ranked third in the NFL in pass defense last year. Although the secondary lost safety Jeremy Chinn, the team’s second-leading tackler, the Commanders found a solid replacement in veteran Will Harris.
They obviously hit a grand slam in drafting Daniels with their first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, but second-round selection Mike Sainristil was a home run, too. The rookie CB had 93 tackles, 14 passes broken up, three tackles for loss, two interceptions, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery in 17 regular-season games. He added 11 tackles, four PBU and a pair of interceptions in the playoffs.
The other CBs are four-time Pro-Bowl selection Marshon Lattimore and Jonathan Jones, who was signed to a one-year deal worth $5 million in free agency. Jones had 69 tackles, 11 PBU, four interceptions, three forced fumbles and one pick-six in 16 games for the Patriots in 2024.
Bobby Wagner was Washington’s leading tackler last year when he earned his 10th career Pro-Bowl selection. He compiled 132 tackles, 15 TFL’s, four PBU, two fumble recoveries, two sacks and one forced fumble.
Wagner is back to team with LB Frankie Luvu, who had 99 tackles, 10 TFL’s, eight sacks, seven PBU, two fumble recoveries, one forced fumble and one interception last year. He added 17 tackles, 1.5 TFL’s, one sack and one fumble recovery in the playoffs.
The defensive line is where the Commanders need to see improvement after ranking #30 in the NFL in run defense. DT Jonathan Allen is gone, and the hope is that newly acquired Javon Kinlaw can finally live up to the potential that prompted the 49ers to make him the #14 overall pick with their first-round selection in the 2020 NFL Draft.
The 27-year-old Kinlaw spent four seasons in San Francisco before playing in all 17 games for the Jets last year. He put up career-best numbers with 40 tackles, eight TFL’s, 4.5 sacks, two forced fumbles and one fumble recovery.
DT Jer’Zhan Newton had a solid rookie campaign after Washington selected him in the second round with the #36 overall pick. In 16 regular-season games, the University of Illinois product recorded 44 tackles, seven TFL’s, two sacks, one PBU, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery.
EDGE Dorance Armstrong had 39 tackles, six TFL’s, five sacks and two forced fumbles last season. The Commanders are hoping to get help with their pass rush on the other side from Deatrich Wise, who was signed on a one-year contract for $5 million.
Wise had 314 tackles, 34 sacks, 18.5 TFL’s and five forced fumbles in eight seasons with New England.
Washington’s schedule is more daunting than the one it faced in 2024. The Commanders have eight games at home, eight road assignments and will meet Miami in Madrid, Spain, on Nov. 16. They get their open date the following week ahead of a home game vs. Denver, but the Broncos also have two weeks to prepare for that game.
DraftKings has Washington favored in 12 games and three of its underdog spots are when it is exactly +1.5 points – at Green Bay, at the Los Angeles Chargers and vs. Philadelphia. The other games for the Commanders as underdogs are at Kansas City (+3.5 on Monday Night Football) and +4.5 at Philadelphia.
When Washington closes the regular season at Philadelphia in Week 18, it will have a rest advantage of three days after playing on Christmas Day (Thursday) at home vs. Dallas. The Eagles play at Buffalo in Week 17 (on Sunday).
In addition to playing at Kansas City on MNF, DraftKings has the Commanders as 4.5-point home favorites vs. Chicago on MNF on Oct. 13. They’re on Sunday Night Football twice – vs. Seattle on Nov. 2 and vs. Denver on Nov. 30.
Washington is a 5.5-point home favorite vs. Dallas in Week 17 when it will have an extra day of rest compared to the Cowboys. The Commanders play the Eagles on Saturday in Week 16.
PREDICTION: I have Washington going 12-5 in the regular season. I have four of its losses coming at the L.A. Chargers, at Kansas City, at Philadelphia and vs. Detroit. I have the fifth loss coming either at Minnesota or at Dallas, as I see the Commanders splitting in those two contests.
Could Washington lose other games? Of course. I have the Commanders winning at Green Bay as 1.5-point road underdogs and doing the same thing at home vs. Philadelphia. I also have them winning at home vs. Denver as only 2.5-point ‘chalk.’
But Washington might sweep its road games against the Vikings and Cowboys. The Commanders might also win as 1.5-point home favorites vs. Detroit, and they can certainly beat Jim Harbaugh’s team as small road ‘dogs.
BETS:
#1: I’m on Washington ‘over’ 9.5 wins for three units, risking 3.3 units.
#2: Let’s go with Washington for one-half unit to go ‘over’ 11.5 wins (+270 at FanDuel) to win 1.35 units.
#3: Let’s risk 1.32 units to win one unit on Washington to make the playoffs.
#4: Let’s risk 0.25 units to win five units on Washington to win Super Bowl LX.