As of early Saturday afternoon, most books had Washington (10-5 straight up, 9-5-1 against the spread) listed as a 3.5-point favorite for Sunday night’s home game vs. Atlanta. The number had been at -4 for most of the week.
The total was 46.5 points at most spots, and the Falcons had money-line odds in the +160 to +175 range.
Atlanta (8-7 SU, 6-8-1 ATS) is 1-3 SU and 0-3-1 ATS in its last four road games. The Falcons’ lone road win in that stretch was an ugly 15-9 scalp at Las Vegas. They were on a four-game losing streak until winning their last two games over two of the worst teams in NFL in the Raiders and Giants.
Dan Quinn’s team has its momentum back after enduring a three-game losing streak. In two of those defeats vs. Pittsburgh (28-27) and at Philadelphia, Washington allowed fourth quarter leads to get away.
In a loss vs. Dallas, the Commanders missed a potential tying extra point with 21 seconds left.
Nevertheless, Washington has responded with a three-game winning streak, including this past Sunday’s 36-33 win over Philadelphia to end the Eagles’ 10-game winning streak. Jayden Daniels completed 24-of-39 throws for 258 yards and five touchdowns. He also had 81 rushing yards on nine attempts.
The Commanders overcame five turnovers and still beat Philadelphia. Daniels has a 10/3 TD-INT ratio in the last three contests.
For the season, Daniels has connected on 69.7 percent of his passes for 3,303 yards with a 22/8 TD-INT ratio. The LSU product also has 737 rushing yards, six TDs and a 5.8 yards-per-carry average.
Before the road win at Las Vegas two weeks ago, Atlanta lost 42-21 at Minnesota, 38-6 at Denver and 20-17 at New Orleans in its three previous road assignments.
I think the Commanders win by double digits, but I want to back them in other ways as well.
PREDICTIONS: Let’s buy the half-point at a -125 price to get Washington at -3 for the game, risking 2.5 units to win two. Also, let’s make half-unit plays on the following three picks: Washington -2.5 (at a -115 price at BetOnline) in the first half, Washington Team Total ‘over’ 13.5 in the first half and Washington Team Total ‘over’ 26.5 points for the game.