For starters, apologies to readers who tailed me on my garbage pick of Pittsburgh -3 at Houston last week. The Steelers were awful offensively (how has Mike Tomlin not given OC Matt Canada a pink slip yet?) and the Texans are clearly much better than I thought going into that game.
It was a rough 3-5 record for my Week 4 NFL picks, ending a 15-1 against-the-spread run that started on the Sunday of Week 2 and went into Week 3 when I went 9-0. Nevertheless, we’re still on an 18-6 ATS roll over our last 24 NFL selections.
Let’s start Week 5 by taking the ‘over’ (I got 44 earlier in the week, but I’m fine with 44.5 or even 45 it moves higher today) for tonight’s Bears-Commanders game at FedEx Field in Landover, MD.
The ‘over’ has hit at 4-0 clip for Chicago with combined scores of 59, 51, 44 and 58 points. The Bears are ranked #31 out of 32 NFL teams in scoring defense, allowing an average of 34.3 points per game. They’re #28 in total defense and #29 versus the pass.
Until committing a pair of fourth-quarter turnovers in last week’s 31-28 home loss to Denver, Chicago quarterback Justin Fields was enjoying a career performance. He completed 28-of-35 passes for 335 yards and four touchdowns compared to one interception in the heartbreaking loss to the Broncos.
Fields will face a Washington defense that’s given up 34, 37 and 33 points in its last three games. The ‘over’ is 2-1 for the Commanders in their last three games, with the two ‘over’ contests netting combined scores of 65 and 68 points.
Washington is ranked #29 in the NFL in scoring ‘D,’ surrendering an average of 30.0 PPG. Sam Howell bounced back nicely from his four-interception performance in a blowout home loss to Buffalo in Week 3.
In last week’s 34-31 overtime loss at Philadelphia, Howell completed 29-of-41 throws for 290 yards and one TD without an interception. He also had 40 rushing yards on six attempts.
The Pick: Chicago at Washington ‘over’ 44.5 points.