As of early Friday afternoon, most books had Detroit (2-1 straight up, 2-1 against the spread) installed as a 10-point home favorite for Sunday’s home game vs. Cleveland. The total was 44.5 points, while the Browns were +400 on the money line.
For first-half bets, most spots had the Lions at -6.5 with a total of 22.5 points, and Dan Campbell’s team was -2.5 (at juice ranging from -120 to -135) in the first quarter. Finally, Detroit’s Team Total was 27.5 points.
Detroit is off a 38-30 statement win at Baltimore as a 4.5-point road underdog. The Lions played turnover-free football, producing 24 first downs, 426 yards of total offense and 38 points. They held the Ravens to 318 yards of offense.
Veteran QB Jared Goff completed 20-of-28 passes for 202 yards and one TD without an interception. RB David Montgomery erupted for 151 rushing yards and two TDs on 12 attempts, while RB Jahmyr Gibbs had 67 rushing yards and two TDs on 22 totes. WR Amon-Ra St. Brown had seven receptions for 77 yards and one TD.
DL Al-Quadin Muhammad recorded four tackles and 2.5 sacks. LB Jack Campbell added eight tackles and one sack, and LB Derrick Barnes contributed seven tackles and one sack.
Cleveland (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) collected a 13-10 win over Green Bay as a 7.5-point home underdog thanks to Andre Szmyt’s 55-yard walk-off field goal as time expired.
Coming off of Monday Night Football leaves Detroit on a short week, which is always a red flag from a betting perspective the following week. However, the Browns’ stunning upset wins leaves them in a bit of a flat spot.
Couple that with the fact that the Lions are returning home, and I think we’re okay in looking to back Detroit. However, we aren’t looking to lay double digits for the game.
No, we’re most interested in the Team Total for Campbell’s squad that’s scored 52, 31, 31, 42 and 34 points in its last five home games. Detroit was limited to 23 points in a 23-20 home win over Chicago on Thanksgiving Day of last season, but it had 25 first downs and 405 yards of total offense. Goff and Co. simply couldn’t take advantage of five red-zone opportunities.
But if we go back to the three home games prior to the Bears on Thanksgiving, the Lions scored 52, 52 (again) and 42 points. Therefore, they’ve scored at least 31 points in eight of their last nine home outings and 42 or more in five of those.
Regardless of whether playing home or away, Detroit has scored at least 31 points in 13 of its last 18 contests.
Cleveland does have a solid defense, but it gave up 41 points at Baltimore in its lone road game this season. The Browns were fantastic on defense in last week’s win over the Packers, but that’s why we’re getting a number lower than 28 points for the Lions’ Team Total.
PREDICTIONS: Let’s risk 3.15 units to win three units on Detroit’s Team Total to go ‘over’ 27.5 points at a -105 price. We’ll also risk 1.12 units to win one unit on the Lions -5.5 (at a -112 price at DraftKings) in the first half.
*Note: Some books have Detroit -6.5 in the first half and we still like the play at that number.