As of Wednesday morning, most betting shops had the Los Angeles Chargers (2-2 straight up, 2-2 against the spread) installed as a three-point road favorite Sunday at Denver. The total was 35.5 points, and the Broncos were +135 on the money line.
Denver (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS) has ripped off three consecutive wins both SU and ATS, including a 26-7 win at Tampa Bay as a six-point road underdog, a 10-9 win at the New York Jets as an 8.5-point road ‘dog and a 34-18 win over Las Vegas as a 2.5-point home favorite.
When the Broncos lost 26-20 at Seattle in Week 1 and 13-6 at home vs. Pittsburgh in Week 2, rookie QB Bo Nix threw four interceptions. Since then, Nix hasn’t committed a turnover and his team is undefeated.
The former QB at both Auburn and Oregon has thrown three TD passes without a pick during his team’s three-game winning streak. He completed 19-of-27 throws (70.4%) for 206 yards and two TDs against the Raiders last week.
For the season, Nix is now connecting on 61.8 percent of his passes. He has 119 rushing yards, three TDs and a 3.8 yards-per-carry average.
As for the Denver defense during this three-game surge, it has allowed merely 34 combined points for an average of 11.3 points per game.
Denver is 3-1 ATS with two outright wins in four games as an underdog this season. The Broncos are ranked third in the NFL in both total defense and scoring ‘D’ (14.6 points per game). They’re ranked #5 in pass defense and #10 at defending the run.
Denver is the healthier team, too. The Chargers might be without both of their starting OTs, as Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater are both listed as ‘questionable’ after missing a 17-10 home loss to Kansas City due to injuries.
L.A. LB Junior Colson also missed the loss to the Chiefs and is ‘questionable’ at Denver. Starting WR DJ Chark remains ‘out.’
Jim Harbaugh’s squad is ranked #29 in the NFL in total offense, #31 in passing yards and #28 in scoring with its pedestrian 17.0 PPG average. The Chargers have dropped back-to-back games both SU and ATS, and their wins in early September – at home to Las Vegas and at Carolina – aren’t aging well.
I made Denver a three-point favorite, so I obviously like Sean Payton’s team to win outright. Let’s go with the Broncos as home underdogs.
PREDICTION: Denver +3 vs. L.A. Chargers for one unit. Broncos +135 on the money line for 0.25 units.