Originally published on July 22 at 2:46 p.m. Eastern.
Updated on Aug. 7 at 10:08 a.m. Eastern.
Note: My rankings are based on who I would make favored over whom on a neutral field in Week 1.
1-Detroit Lions: Just a friendly reminder that Detroit went 15-2 straight up and 12-5 against the spread in 17 regular-season games last year. The Lions did so despite losing star DE Aidan Hutchinson to a season-ending injury on Oct. 13. By the time it hosted Washington in the NFC semifinals, Dan Campbell’s team was without six defensive starters and lost CB Amik Robertson on the second play of the game. Without seven starters, the Commanders put up seven touchdowns in a 45-31 win.
Detroit is returning nine starters on offense and 10 on defense. The two losses are on the offensive line as center Frank Ragnow retired and guard Kevin Zeitler left for the Titans in free agency. However, the Lions still have one of the best offensive fronts in all of the NFL thanks to the emergence of guard Christian Mahogany, who battled injuries and illness before being activated in late October of his rookie campaign last year.
Detroit GM Brad Holmes is the second-best in the NFL (behind only Philadelphia’s Howie Roseman) and he got a steal when he selected Georgia’s Tate Ratledge in the second round. Ratledge was a two-time All-American at UGA who will take over at center for Ragnow. Holmes also added guard Miles Frazier in the fifth round. Frazier didn’t allow a sack in 13 starts at LSU in 2024.
The only loss major loss on defense was starting CB Carlton Davis, but he was replaced by free-agent signee D.J. Reed. Holmes strengthened the defensive line with first-round pick Tyleik Williams, a defensive tackle out of Ohio St., and DT Roy Lopez, who started all 16 games he played for the Arizona Cardinals in 2024.
Sure, the losses of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson (Chicago’s new head coach) and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn (Jets’ new HC) hurt, but I’m confident that this veteran squad will be fine on both sides of the ball.
2-Philadelphia Eagles: Nick Sirianni’s team lost four starters – cornerback Darius Slay, safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson, defensive tackle Milton Williams and linebacker Josh Sweat – on defense and one on offense (OG Mekhi Becton). The back end of this defense concerns me – there’s plenty of talent but lots of youth.
The offense remains absolutely loaded. We’ll see how motivated this team is to repeat, but the pieces are certainly in place to do so.
3-Kansas City Chiefs: Andy Reid is hoping first-round pick Josh Simmons (Ohio St.) can solve the team’s issues at OT, which were on full display in the blowout loss to the Eagles in the Super Bowl. KC went 12-0 in one-possession games last year, but that stat isn’t an accident. When Patrick Mahomes has the ball at crunch time in a tight game, he’s going to lead his team to victory.
4-Baltimore Ravens: John Harbaugh’s teams have been to the playoffs in six of seven seasons with QB Lamar Jackson, and the one miss came when the Ravens went 1-3 down the stretch when he was out with an ankle injury. Jackson owns an incredible 70-24 record in 94 career regular-season starts.
Unfortunately, Baltimore is 3-5 in Jackson’s eight career postseason starts. In those eight contests, Jackson has a 10/7 touchdown-to-interception ratio and four lost fumbles. He has to play better in the playoffs.
5-Buffalo Bills: I almost feel guilty placing Buffalo at #5. To be clear, there isn’t much separation between the teams in my top five. Will the additions of WRs Elijah Moore and Josh Palmer be an upgrade from the losses of WRs Mack Hollins and Amari Cooper? Possibly.
I liked what the Bills did in the draft with just one exception – I would’ve grabbed a WR before they took Ohio St.’s Kaden Prather in the seventh round. Nevertheless, I loved the first four picks of SEC studs – Kentucky CB Maxwell Hairston, South Carolina DT T.J. Sanders, Arkansas DE Landon Jackson and Kentucky DT Deone Walker – on the defensive side of the ball. As long as his weight doesn’t become an issue, I think Walker in Round 4 is going to be an absolute steal. If DE Joey Bosa can stay healthy, his addition will be huge.
6-Washington Commanders: Assuming he stays healthy and WR Terry McLaurin’s contract gets worked out by mid-August, there isn’t going to be a sophomore slump for QB Jayden Daniels, who is already a top-five NFL QB. I explained why I’m extremely bullish on the 2025 Commanders back in May.
7-Los Angeles Rams: Three of the Rams’ six one-possession losses last year came when star WR Puka Nacua wasn’t on the field. They went 2-4 in the six games he missed (five of those misses came due to an injury sustained in a 26-20 overtime loss at Detroit in Week 1).
Sean McVay’s squad added a couple of offensive tools for QB Matt Stafford with TE Terrance Ferguson, a second-round pick from Oregon, and RB Jarquez Hunter, a speedy fourth-round selection out of Auburn who has some Darren Sproles in him. The acquisition of WR Davante Adams to replace Cooper Kupp should work fine.
I think Ole Miss LB Chris Paul Jr. was a steal in Round 5. NT Poona Ford should help the run defense.
8-Cincinnati Bengals: If not for the question marks around the contract situations with DEs Trey Hendrickson and first-round pick Shemar Stewart, I’d have the Bengals higher on this list. But the defense has issues galore even if Hendrickson and Stewart get signed, especially in the secondary. Cincinnati was ranked 25th in the NFL in both total defense and scoring ‘D’ in 2024, and that unit lost three starters in DE Sam Hubbard, CB Mike Hilton and S Vonn Bell. Nevertheless, the Bengals didn’t spend any of their six draft picks on DBs. UPDATE: When I published these rankings in July, I had the Bengals at #10 because Stewart was unsigned and Hendrickson was a hold out. Stewart is now signed and reportedly dominating at training camp. Hendrickson still doesn’t have a contract extension, but at least he’s now a ‘hold in’ and is at camp even though he’s not on the field yet. Therefore, I bumped the Bengals up two spots, and dropped the Chargers and Broncos one spot apiece.
On a positive note, I liked the addition of NT T.J. Slaton, who is an excellent run stuffer. WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins were signed to lucrative contracts that’ll keep them with star QB Joe Burrow for many years to come, and that means the Bengals will have one of the NFL’s top offenses as long as that trio is healthy.
9-Los Angeles Chargers: I have no idea what that performance was in a 32-12 loss at Houston in the Wild Card Round. It was mostly on QB Justin Herbert, who had a 23/3 TD-INT ratio in the regular season but was intercepted four times against the Texans.
Whatever the case, it was still a strong Year 1 under Jim Harbaugh. I’m really bullish on four of the Chargers’ draft picks, including RB Omarion Hampton (R1 from UNC), WR Tre Harris (R2, Ole Miss), DE Kyle Kennard (R4, South Carolina) and TE Orende Gadsden (R5, Syracuse).
10-Denver Broncos: Despite going 1-6 in seven one-possession games, playing in a division with two other playoff teams, getting off to a 0-2 start and playing a rookie QB, Denver still won 10 games (eight by double-digit margins and nine by at least nine points) and made the postseason. The Broncos are basically running it back with the same group, returning 20 of 22 starters. I wasn’t a big fan of their draft, but punter Jeremy Crawshaw (R6, Florida) will be a solid replacement (and possible upgrade) from punter Riley Dixon, who left for Tampa Bay in free agency.
On a positive note, WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins were signed to lucrative contracts that’ll keep them with star QB Joe Burrow for many years to come. I liked the addition of NT T.J. Slaton, who is an excellent run stuffer.
11-Green Bay Packers: Even with four losses by only nine combined points, Green Bay still went 11-6 during the regular season. RB Josh Jacobs was outstanding in his first year as a Packer. The hope is that first-round pick Matthew Golden, a University of Texas product who was the fastest WR in the 2025 NFL Draft, will have a huge impact as a rookie.
12-San Francisco 49ers: San Francisco went 1-6 in seven one-possession games during a nightmare 2024 campaign that was decimated by key injuries. If RB Christian McCaffrey can stay healthy and WR Brandon Aiyuk can get back to his 2023 form, the 49ers will be fine on offense. The recent request for a new contract or a trade by WR Jauan Jennings, who is off a breakout season, is concerning, but Ricky Pearsall is ready to make a big jump in Year 2 and the signing of WR Demarcus Robinson solidified depth at the position. And don’t sleep on WR Jordan Watkins, a fourth-round selection from Ole Miss.
13-Houston Texans: The anticipated absence of star WR Tank Dell for the entire season is a brutal loss, but the hope is that veteran Christian Kirk will have a big season and rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, both of whom hail from Iowa St., will make significant contributions right away. Playing in the AFC South certainly helps.
14-Tampa Bay Buccaneers: If Baker Mayfield continues to play like he did last year, Tampa Bay will have a chance every week. Rookie WR Emeka Egbuka should have an instant impact.
15-Chicago Bears: If Chicago was in a different division, I’d be predicting a postseason appearance. I love new HC Ben Johnson as an OC, but I have no idea how he’ll handle clock management. Therefore, I have zero clue what type of HC he’ll be. The o-line should be outstanding thanks to the additions of OG Joe Thuney and center Drew Dalman. Rookie TE Colston Loveland is a nice new toy for QB Caleb Williams, while WR Luther Burden (R2, Missouri) is my pick at 45/1 odds to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. We’ll see on the defense.
16-Minnesota Vikings: There are a lot of new faces with only seven starters returning on each side of the ball. I have a lot of questions about rookie QB J.J. McCarthy, especially coming off a serious knee injury. HC Kevin O’Connell is outstanding, though, and he has a helluva DC in Brian Flores.
17-Pittsburgh Steelers: I just can’t trust a team that has OC Arthur Smith calling plays. I still think Aaron Rodgers can play at a high level if the parts around him are functional. As always, the Steelers will be competitive and could sneak into the playoffs again. If so, they’ll have a better chance of pulling an upset (or two?) with Rodgers under center, but I doubt that happens.
18-Arizona Cardinals: The defensive line should be elite with the additions of Calais Campbell, Dalvin Tomlinson and Walter Nolen. LB Josh Sweat is another significant newcomer to what should be a vastly improved defense. James Conner remains one of the NFL’s most underrated RBs.
19-Seattle Seahawks: If Sam Darnold can replicate his 2024 success in Minnesota, Seattle could be in business. WRs DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are gone, but the Seahawks signed Kupp away from the Rams. They have a star in WR Jaxson Smith-Njigba, who had 100 receptions for 1,130 yards and six TDs in 2024. I won’t be surprised if they end up with a pair of Day 3 keepers in WRs Tory Horton (R5, Colorado St.) and Rickey White (R7, UNLV).
20-Atlanta Falcons: At long last, GM Terry Fontenot finally addressed the club’s pass rushing needs that have lasted for a decade. However, he parted with next year’s first-round pick since he knows he won’t be around if the defense isn’t immensely improved. Fontenot is terrible. Arthur Blank was a great owner for about a decade, but he’s been awful over the last decade in large part due to still leaning on President Rich McKay for advice. Raheem Morris told on himself with his atrocious clock management in the loss at Washington in the regular-season finale. With all that said, the offense should be elite with weapons galore.
21-Dallas Cowboys: The offense should be fine and the front four of the defense is solid, but the back end of the stop unit has issues galore. Here we go again with owner Jerry Jones wanting his name in the news. This time around, Jones is creating drama as it pertains to a lucrative extension for his star pass rusher Micah Parsons.
22-New England Patriots: The Pats had a stellar offseason, strengthening the offensive line with OT Will Campbell (R1, LSU), center Garrett Bradbury, OT Morgan Moses and center Jared Wilson (R3, Georgia). They added talent at WR with the additions of Stefon Diggs, Mack Hollins and rookie Kyle Williams (R3, Washington St.). The defense should also be improved with newcomers like OLB Harold Landry, CB Carlton Davis, DT Milton Williams and LB Robert Spillane. QB Drake Maye showed plenty of promise as a rookie last season. Perhaps most important, New England again has one of the best HCs in the NFL with Mike Vrabel.
23-Miami Dolphins: What happened to the running game last year? How will the rebuilt secondary fare? Is the relationship between star WR Tyreek Hill and HC Mike McDaniel repaired? There are lots of questions in South Florida.
24-Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson is still only 23. He started only 13 games in college at Florida and has just 15 NFL starts in his first two seasons. He has way too much talent to give on him at this early stage, but veteran Daniel Jones was brought in just in case.
25-Jacksonville Jaguars: Travis Hunter can’t fix everything that ails this dismal organization. Brian Thomas had a helluva rookie year, cementing his spot as WR1 for as long as he’s in Duval County.
26-Las Vegas Raiders: I like the offseason moves, but it’s not going to be a quick fix in the AFC West. The loss of Spillane to the Patriots in free agency hurts. Geno Smith has the sixth-most wins among NFL QBs since the start of the 2022 campaign.
27-Carolina Panthers: QB Bryce Young bounced back nicely in Year 2 after his brief benching. Carolina has a nice RB room with Chuba Hubbard, Rico Dowdle and Trevor Etienne. I liked the Panthers’ draft, especially first-round pick Tetairoa McMillan (WR, Arizona) and second-round selection Nic Scourton (DE, Texas A&M).
28-New York Giants: WR Malik Nabers is a DUDE! I put one unit on the prop for Nabers to go ‘over’ 7.5 touchdown catches at a -108 price (FanDuel).
29-Tennessee Titans: QB Cam Ward provides hope. The Titans bolstered the o-line by signing Zeitler away from the Lions and inking OT Dan Moore. Ward will have two excellent WRs in veterans Calvin Ridley and Tyler Lockett. The organization also likes a pair of WRs it took with fourth-round picks in Chimere Dike (Florida) and Elic Ayomanor, who you might recall as the wideout who had a monster game in Stanford’s comeback win at Colorado two seasons ago.
30-New York Jets: There are a lot of talented players on defense, but not so much on the other side of the ball (with apologies to WR Garrett Wilson and RB Breece Hall). Justin Fields is a quality QB2 who makes electrifying plays with his legs, but I don’t ever see him becoming a consistent winner as a starting QB.
31-Cleveland Browns: This team has too many weaknesses to have a bad QB situation, too.
32-New Orleans Saints: The QB quandary dragged the Who Dats into the preseason cellar.