With linebacker Alex Anzalone returning from a broken arm for Detroit’s 31-9 home win over Minnesota in its regular-season finale, the Lions only had six defensive starters ‘out’ with injuries when they hosted Washington in the NFC semifinals last year.
However, on the second play of the game, starting cornerback Amik Robertson limped off the field injured and didn’t return. Therefore, Dan Campbell’s team was missing seven starters when Jayden Daniels carved the Lions up in the Commanders’ 45-31 win as eight-point road underdogs.
And just like that, Detroit was sent into an agonizing offseason questioning how a spectacular regular season that ended with a 15-2 straight-up record and an 11-5 against-the-spread mark, including an 8-0 record on the road, could end in such disappointment.
But the answer was simple. The Lions just couldn’t overcome a ruthless rash of injuries on the defensive side of the ball.
Soon after the loss to Washington, Campbell’s staff lost both of its coordinators, with OC Ben Johnson and DC Aaron Glenn leaving to take head-coaching jobs with the Bears and Jets, respectively.
Johnson and Glenn did terrific jobs, no doubt about it. But are their losses really that big of a deal? Only time will tell, but those coaching defections certainly aren’t impacting my expectations for the 2025 Detroit Lions.
They return nine of 11 starters on offense and 10 of 11 on the defensive side of the ball. The loss of four-time Pro-Bowl center Frank Ragnow certainly hurts, as does the loss of offensive guard Kevin Zeitler, who left via free agency to sign with the Titans.
But Detroit has the second-best GM in the NFL (behind only Philadelphia GM Howie Roseman) and Brad Holmes prepared for those losses with his work in the last two drafts. He used the Lions’ second-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft to select Tate Ratledge, a two-time All-American at Georgia who will start right away as a rookie replacing Ragnow at center.
Zeitler’s job falls to second-year OG Christian Mahogany, who played well in two starts as a rookie. Holmes also selected LSU OG Miles Frazier, a fifth-round pick who gave up zero sacks in 579 pass-blocking snaps in 2024.
With Pro-Bowlers Penei Sewell and Taylor Decker manning the OT spots, I still think Detroit has one of the NFL’s top offensive lines. The Lions finished 2024 #1 in the NFL in scoring with their 33.2 points-per-game average, #2 in total yards, #2 in passing yards and #6 in rushing yards.
Detroit probably has the NFL’s best combination of RBs in Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Gibbs had 1,412 rushing yards, 16 touchdowns and a 5.6 yards-per-carry average last year, while Montgomery produced 775 rushing yards, 12 TDs and a 4.2 YPC average. Gibbs added 52 receptions for 517 yards and four TDs.
QB Jared Goff completed 72.4 percent of his passes for 4,629 yards with a 37/12 TD-INT ratio. WR Amon-Ra St. Brown hauled in 115 receptions for 1,263 yards and 12 TDs, while WR Jameson Williams had 58 catches for 1,001 yards and seven TDs. TE Sam LaPorta continued to establish himself as one of the league’s best at his position, snagging 60 balls for 726 yards and seven TDs.
FanDuel has DE Aidan Hutchinson with the second-shortest odds (+700) to win AP Defensive Player of the Year honors. Hutchinson broke his leg in a Week 5 win at Dallas and was unable to return for the rest of the season.
The University of Michigan product had 19 tackles, 7.5 sacks and one forced fumble in those five games. Reports out of Detroit from training camp have indicated that Hutchinson is 100-percent healthy and dominating practice sessions.
The only loss on defense was CB Carlton Davis, who signed with the Patriots in free agency. Holmes countered that loss by inking CB D.J. Reed, who has 42 passes broken up in 60 games in the last four seasons. He had 64 tackles, 11 PBU, four tackles for loss and one sack in 14 games for the Jets in 2024.
The Lions have the NFL’s best combination of safeties with Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph. Holmes pulled a coup by selecting Branch in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft. In 31 games during his first two seasons, the University of Alabama product has produced 183 tackles, seven interceptions for 111 return yards and one TD, 29 PBU, 17 TFL’s, two sacks and a pair of forced fumbles.
Joseph had an NFL-best nine interceptions with 99 return yards and one TD last year. He added 12 PBU. In his first three seasons since Holmes picked him in Round 3 of the 2022 NFL Draft, Joseph has recorded 247 tackles, 31 PBU, 17 interceptions, 5.5 TFL’s, two forced fumbles and one fumble recovery.
Special teams are a strength for the Lions, too. Jack Fox was a first-team All-Pro in 2024 when he led the NFL in yards per punt (51.0) and net yards per punt (45.8). Kicker Jake Bates had an outstanding rookie year, burying 26-of-29 (89.6%) field goals with a long of 58 yards.
FanDuel has Detroit’s season win total at 10.5 (‘under -135, ‘over’ +115). The Lions are the +155 ‘chalk’ to win the NFC North Division, and they have 11/1 odds to win Super Bowl LX. Those are the fifth-shortest odds on the board.
The schedule is certainly daunting, including road assignments at Baltimore, at Cincinnati, at Kansas City, at Washington, at Philadelphia and at the Los Angeles Rams, in addition to Detroit’s three NFC North road games.
The home schedule isn’t as challenging. Outside of the Lions’ division games at home, their only other opponents at Ford Field who made the playoffs in 2024 are Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh.
PREDICTIONS: I have Detroit going 11-3 with three swing games. I have Campbell’s team losing at Baltimore, at Washington and at Philadelphia. The coin-flip games include road games at Cincinnati, at Kansas City and at the L.A. Rams. Even if the Lions fall in all three swing games, they’ll still go ‘over’ their season win total. I’ll risk two units on Detroit ‘over’ 10.5 wins to net 2.3 units of profit.
Let’s also go with one unit on the Lions to win the NFC North (+155) and earn 1.55 units of profit. Finally, let’s risk 1.1 units to win one on Detroit +2.5 at Green Bay in Week 1.