The Denver Broncos (15-3 straight up, 8-9-1 against the spread) advanced to the AFC Championship Game with Saturday’s 33-30 win over Buffalo in an overtime thriller.
They covered the spread as 1.5-point home favorites but also saw their quarterback Bo Nix go down with a broken ankle that’ll keep him out for the rest of the playoffs. The 63 combined points flew ‘over’ the 45.5-point total.
The narrative entering the game was how Buffalo star quarterback Josh Allen was the best remaining QB in the field. Without Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow or Lamar Jackson in the postseason, this was Allen’s time to shine.
He had done so last week in carrying the Bills to a late comeback win at red-hot Jacksonville, but it wasn’t to be in the Mile High City.
Buffalo committed five costly turnovers, with Allen matching a career-high with four giveaways (two fumbles and two interceptions), including a fumble late in the first half that handed the Broncos three points in walk-off fashion.
With all that said, the game was cloaked in controversy regarding Allen’s final turnover in OT. He threw a deep ball that WR Brandin Cooks appeared to secure as he fell to the ground. A catch would’ve set the Bills set up at Denver’s 20 in great position for a game-winning field goal.
Instead, the play was ruled an interception. Denver’s Ja’Quan McMillian got his hands on the ball as Cooks was hitting the ground, ripping it away with his momentum after landing on top of Cooks.
A somewhat similar play had taken place with Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers earlier this season. In that instance, Rodgers’ throw was batted at the line of scrimmage and bounced back toward him. He caught it as his knee was hitting the ground before it was ripped away from him by a defender.
Replay reviews ruled that the play was over when Rodgers had possession and his knee hit the ground. Likewise, I thought Cooks had possession when he hit the ground, and the play was over at that point.
Two plays later, Nix found WR Lil’Jordan Humphrey for a 24-yard connection to Denver’s 47. On second and 10, Nix’s pass to WR Courtland Sutton drew a 17-yard penalty for pass interference to Buffalo’s 36.
On the next play, Nix lost two yards on a designed run and broke his ankle. He remained in the game, though, and drew a 30-yard PI on Buffalo veteran DB Tre’Davious White on the next snap.
After Nix took a knee to center the ball, kicker Will Lutz buried a 23-yard, game-winning field goal.
With the OT loss, Allen is now 0-7 in games that have gone to OT during his tenure in Buffalo, with three of those defeats coming in the playoffs. The star QB took the setback hard, and it will probably haunt him until the moment that he’s able – IF he’s able – to finally hoist the Lombardi Trophy and give Buffalo the Super Bowl victory it’s craved for decades.
“I felt like I let my teammates down,” Allen said as he unsuccessfully fought back tears.
Without Nix, Denver will have to turn to Jarrett Stidham, the 29-year-old career backup who has started four times in 20 career appearances during his six NFL seasons. He was New England’s fourth-round pick with the 133rd overall selection in the 2019 NFL Draft.
Stidham, who played his college ball at Baylor and Auburn, went 0-2 in a pair of starts for the Raiders in 2022. With the Broncos in 2023, they had a 1-1 record in his two starts. Stidham completed 40-of-66 throws (60.6%) for 496 yards and two TDs with one interception in three total appearances that season.
Stidham has connected on 117-of-197 career passes (59.4%) for 1,422 yards with an 8/8 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Denver head coach Sean Payton has already done his postgame presser when the medical team told him that X-rays revealed Nix’s ankle was broken. To his credit, Payton went back to address the media again to get out in front of this enormous story.
“Stiddy’s ready,” Payton declared. “He’s ready. I said this at the beginning of the season I’ve got a 2 that’s capable of starting for a number of teams. And I know he feels the same way. So, watch out. Just watch.”
Nix completed 26-of-46 passes for 279 yards and three TDs compared to one interception vs. Buffalo. He had 29 rushing yards on 12 attempts, while WR Marvin Mims had eight catches for 93 yards and one TD.
Allen connected on 25-of-39 passes for 283 yards and three TDs with the two aforementioned picks. He had 66 rushing yards on 12 carries, while James Cook had 117 rushing yards on 24 attempts. Cook also had a lost fumble, though.
Buffalo TE Dalton Kincaid had six receptions for 83 yards and one TD, and WR Khalil Shakir had seven grabs for 75 yards.
In Sunday’s AFC Divisional Round, New England took advantage of an atrocious performance from Houston QB CJ Stroud, who threw four interceptions in the first half alone, to win a 28-16 decision over Houston as a three-point home favorite. With the win, the Patriots advanced to the AFC Championship Game at Denver.
As of early Monday afternoon, the Patriots were favored in the -4.5 to -5.5 range with a total of 41.5. The Broncos were +210 money-line underdogs at home.