The NFL returns tonight, but not with the Super Bowl Champion Patriots.
The Bears will play host to the Packers, with the home team favored by three points, and the total set at 46.5.
I obviously want to do my best to make you guys some cash this NFL season, which means not forcing plays. I do have some smaller plays to make on this game, but not playing anything too big right off the bat. Patience is key, and we’ll have some strong plays to take advantage of on Sunday.
Packers +3.5 (-120) 0.75 units/Packers ML (+150) 0.25 units
I want to have the hook on Green Bay, so I’m willing to go to -120 to get it. We’ll still profit if the Packers cover and lose, but putting a quarter unit on the money line gives us a bit more of a payout if the Packers win outright, which I feel they can do.
Green Bay was completely out of control last season, with a disconnect between Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy. Not only should Green Bay’s offense have more organization, it’ll also be a new look with first-time head coach Matt LaFleur at the helm.
While I don’t think this will be any kind of Sean McVay outburst, it’ll at least be something the Bears haven’t seen. Sticking with that matchup, the Bears should fall off on defense with Vic Fangio off to coach the Broncos.
It also helps to have the massive QB advantage of Rodgers over Trubisky, who I expect to take a step back.
And finally, we have the hangover effect for the Bears. The way last season ended hurt, and the fact is they still don’t have a proven kicker. That could come back to haunt Chicago this year.
UNDER 46.5 (-110) 1.1 units
The notion of these TNF games being “grinders” doesn’t really come into effect until the season gets into full swing around Week 5 or 6. So this isn’t one of those “always play the under on TNF” bets.
At the same time, the Eagles and Falcons got off to a rusty start in the TNF opener last season, with Philly coming out on top 18-12. The first national game can be a little tight for both teams.
This game went just over this number as the SNF opener last season, with the Packers winning 24-23 in Green Bay. But the Bears took the matchup in Chicago, with a lower scoring 24-17 victory.
The Packers were decimated on defense last year, and should be able to give a better effort this year. And we know what Chicago brings on D, although I think losing Fangio should hurt a bit. I like something in the neighborhood of a 21-20 victory for the Packers here.