Published on June 6, 2023.
Edited at 9:08 am Eastern on Friday, Aug. 25, 2023.
There are seven games on the 2023 Week Zero card scheduled for Saturday, Aug. 26. The standalone game is Navy vs. Notre Dame at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland, where the Midshipmen and Fighting Irish will collide at 2:30 p.m. Eastern on NBC.
Notre Dame finished the 2022 campaign with a 9-4 straight-up record and a 7-6 against-the-spread mark in the first season of Marcus Freeman’s tenure. Freeman’s team won nine of its last 11 games, including a 45-38 win over South Carolina as a five-point favorite in the Gator Bowl.
But there were two inexcusable home losses to Marshall and Stanford. Notre Dame was favored by 20 and 16.5 points, respectively, in those two defeats. The highlight of the year was a 35-14 home win over Clemson, which came to South Bend as a four-point favorite with a No. 13 national ranking.
According to Phil Steele’s preseason magazine, Notre Dame returns six starters on offense and eight on defense.
The new starter under center is ex-Wake Forest quarterback Sam Hartman, who is the Demon Deacons’ all-time leader in career passing yards (12,967) and touchdown passes (110). He has a 110/41 career touchdown-to-interception ratio, in addition to 856 career rushing yards and 17 TDs.
He is the ACC’s all-time career leader in total yards from scrimmage (13,823) and career TD passes. Hartman ranks second in ACC history in career passing yards and career TDs (128).
As of June 6, most books had Notre Dame favored by 20 (Caesars) to 21 points (DraftKings). FanDuel had the total at 48.5 points, with Navy at +680 on the money line. Those numbers on the side remained the same as of June 14, with Circa posting the total at 49.5 points.
UPDATE: On Monday, Aug. 21, most books had Notre Dame listed as a 20.5-point favorite with a total of 50.5. The best money-line payout being offered on the Midshipmen was +895 at Circa. By Friday (8/25), most spots still had Marcus Freeman’s team at -20.5, but Circa was at -21. Circa also had the total at 49.5, but that number was at 49 at most spots and 48.5 at a few shops.
On Monday, DraftKings had the Fighting Irish at -11.5 with a total of 26.5 for first-half wagers. Navy had +600 odds to go into halftime with the lead. By Friday, most books were at -12 with a total of 25.5.
Freeman’s second recruiting class since taking over for Brian Kelly ranked No. 13 nationally at 247Sports. The Irish’s transfer-specific imports ranked No. 45.
Notre Dame has seven incoming transfers, including five from Power Five programs. Hartman is obviously the jewel of the crop, but he’s joined by ex-Virginia Tech WR Kaleb Smith and former Ohio St. DE Javontae Jean-Baptiste as four-star transfers.
In 30 games with the Hokies from 2019-22, Smith had 74 receptions for 1,143 yards and seven TDs. Jean-Baptiste had 19 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, four sacks and one forced fumble for the Buckeyes last year.
Freeman and his staff pulled in 19 four-star prospects from the prep level, including nine players inside of the top 200 at 247Sports. The prizes include OT Charles Jagusah, RB Jeremiyah Love, CB Christian Love and LB Drayk Bowen.
Three starting offensive linemen are back. OT Joe Alt is a preseason first-team All-American in both Athlon’s and Lindy’s magazines. Just like last season, junior RBs Logan Diggs and Audric Estime are expected to get most of the touches out of the backfield.
Estime ran for a team-best 920 yards and 11 TDs last year with a 5.9 yards-per-carry average. He had nine catches for 135 yards and one TD. Diggs produced 822 rushing yards, four TDs and a 4.9 YPC average. He added 10 receptions for 211 yards and two TDs.
Former RB Chris Tyree, who had 444 rushing yards, three TDs and a 4.4 YPC average in 2022, is transitioning to the WR position. Tyree caught 24 balls for 138 yards and two TDs last season.
TE Michael Mayer more than doubled the production of every other Notre Dame WR last season in terms of his catches (67) and receiving yards (809), and he tripled it with his nine TD receptions. He’s off to the NFL, though, leaving a huge void.
Freeman is hoping for a big jump from WR Jayden Thomas, who had 25 receptions for 361 yards and three TDs as a true freshman last year. He had five catches for 66 yards in the win over the Gamecocks in Jacksonville. Lorenzo Styles appears poised for a breakout campaign. He’s combined to catch 54 balls for 684 yards and two TDs in his first two years with the Irish.
CB Benjamin Morrison was spectacular as a true freshman in 2022. He produced 33 tackles, six interceptions with 97 return yards, four passes broken up, one tackle for loss and one pick-six. Morrison is a preseason second-team All-American in Lindy’s magazine and a third-team selection in Athlon’s mag.
Notre Dame returns its top three tacklers. Linebacker JD Bertrand is the best of the trio, recording 82 tackles, 8.5 TFL’s, three PBU, two sacks and two QB hurries. The Irish gave up an average of 23.0 points per game last year, which was the most since 2016 (27.8 PPG).
Navy finished 2022 with a 4-8 SU record and a 7-5 ATS mark. It was the third straight losing season and the fourth in the past five years. The result was the end of Ken Nuimatalolo’s 15-year tenure at the academy.
From 2008-2019, Nuimatalolo took Navy to 10 bowl games in a 12-year span, going 6-4 in those postseason appearances. The Midshipmen went 10-4 in 2009 and 11-2 in both 2015 and ’19. His teams won at least eight games nine times during his reign.
Unfortunately, things went South from 2018-22. The Middies were a combined 11-23 in his last three years and went 3-10 in 2018. Still, Navy went 109-83 on Nuimatalolo’s watch and were 37-26 in AAC play after joining the conference in 2015, winning at least a share of the AAC West division three times.
Most important, Nuimatalolo produced a 10-5 record vs. Army, although the Black Knights won five of the last seven head-to-head meetings.
Nuimatalolo’s replacement is Brian Newberry, who has been the team’s defensive coordinator since 2019. In his first year on the job as DC, Newberry was a semifinalist for the Broyles Award, which goes to the nation’s top assistant coach.
Navy brings back eight starters on offense and nine on defense. Newberry’s stop unit held opponents to 21 points or fewer eight times.
The defense brings back LB Colin Ramos, who is a preseason second-team All-AAC selection in Steele’s magazine. Ramos recorded 79 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, four sacks, two forced fumbles, one fumble recovery and one interception in 2022. Junior safety Rayuan Lane, a third-team preseason All-AAC pick, had 71 tackles, four PBU, 2.5 TFL’s, two forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries and one sack last season.
DE Jacob Busic was a third-team All-AAC selection last year and is a preseason fourth-team All-AAC choice. He produced 38 tackles, 8.5 TFL’s, six sacks, four QB hurries, two forced fumbles and one fumble recovery in 2022.
Both QBs, Tai Lavatai and Xavier Arline, return but sophomore Teddy Gleaton came out of spring practice at No. 1 on the depth chart. UPDATE on 8/21/23: Navy’s early depth chart has Lavatai OR Blake Horvath listed as the starting QB.
Whoever is under center will be handing off to tailback Daba Fofana a lot. Fofana, a preseason third-team All-AAC pick, ran for 819 yards and six TDs with a 4.4 YPC average last year.
Navy produced a 6-0 ATS record with two outright wins in six games as a double-digit underdog last season. The Middies beat the closing number by 76 combined points in those contests. Furthermore, they own an 11-2 ATS record with four outright wins in their last 13 games as double-digit ‘dogs.
We’ll also note that Navy lost five one-possession games last year. Three defeats came by three points, including a 13-10 loss at Air Force, a 35-32 setback vs. Notre Dame and a 20-17 double-overtime loss to Army.
Notre Dame led 35-13 at halftime, but Arline found Mark Walker for a 23-yard TD pass with 14:47 remaining. When Arline ran in the two-point conversion attempt, Navy cut the Irish’s lead to 35-24. Maasai Maynor threw a 20-yard TD pass to Maquel Haywood and the two-point conversion cut the deficit to three.
However, Notre Dame killed the clock after recovering the onside kick.
In the past 21 head-to-head meetings between these teams, Notre Dame has won by more than 21 points just six times and the Irish won by exactly 21 points once. Therefore, if the spread was Notre Dame -21 in the last 21 encounters, Navy would own a 14-6-1 spread record.
Navy only lost by more than 21 points once last year, falling 37-13 in a Week 2 home game vs. Memphis. The Tigers got a walk-off field goal before halftime to extend their lead to 13-7 at the break. With a 23-13 lead, Memphis got a TD with 6:05 remaining and added another with 3:49 left to provide the final score.
If we go all the way back to a 31-29 home win over Temple in Week 5 of the 2020 campaign, Navy has lost by more than 21 points only three times in its last 31 games.
PREDICTION: I’m on Navy +21 for one unit.