UPDATED on Friday, 9/20/19, at 7:06 p.m. ET.
Let’s get into some news, nuggets, injuries, trends, opinions and more for Week 4…(all of the spreads listed were as of Thursday afternoon, and games are on Saturday if not specified to Friday night’s trio of contests)
–Northwestern is a nine-point home underdog vs. Michigan State at noon Eastern on ABC. The Wildcats are 4-0-1 against the spread with three outright victories in their last five games as home underdogs. When listed as ‘dogs of seven points or more during Pat Fitzgerald’s 14-year tenure, they’ve compiled a 31-22-1 spread record with 19 outright victories.
–Northwestern senior CB Trae Williams is ‘out’ vs. Michigan State with an undisclosed injury. On the bright side for the Wildcats, however, sophomore RB Isaiah Bowser has been upgraded to ‘probable’ after missing last week’s 30-14 home win over UNLV. Bowser rushed for 54 yards on 10 carries before leaving a 17-7 loss at Stanford with a knee injury. Bowser led Northwestern with 866 rushing yards and six touchdowns as a true freshman in 2018.
–Michigan State will be down two starters on its offensive line at Northwestern. Junior OG Kevin Jarvis, who started 17 games in 2017 and ’18, is ‘out’ indefinitely with a knee injury. Also, OT Cole Chewins (back) is ‘out indefinitely and back-up OT A.J. Arcuri is ‘out’ with a foot injury.
–South Carolina, a 9.5-point underdog at Missouri, has covered the number in six straight games as a road underdog. The Gamecocks have won three in a row over Mizzou since Will Muschamp took over, including a 31-13 road win two seasons ago and a 37-35 win last year with their back-up QB getting his first and only career start. For those thinking upset, South Carolina is an attractive +280 on the money line. The ‘under’ is 6-1 in the past seven South Carolina-Missouri meetings. They collide at 4:00 p.m. Eastern on the SEC Network.
–Stanford is a 10.5-point home underdog vs. Oregon. This is only the fifth time the Cardinal has been a home underdog during David Shaw’s tenure and just the second time it’s been a double-digit home ‘dog. Regardless, Stanford has won outright in all four previous instances as a home puppy on Shaw’s watch. ESPN will provide television coverage at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.
–Illinois is 4-10 ATS in 14 games as a home underdog during Lovie Smith’s four-year tenure. The Illini is a 13-point home ‘dog vs. Nebraska at 8:00 p.m. ET. on the Big Ten Network.
–Colorado State QB Collin Hill is out for the season after sustaining an ACL tear to the same knee for the third time in his collegiate career. Hill had been playing outstanding to date this year, completing 69-of-102 throws (67.6%) for 840 yards with an 8/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
–On a two-point conversion try after Florida took a 22-21 lead at Kentucky last Saturday night, QB Kyle Trask was stopped by UK linebacker Kash Daniel and a host of others. The initial replays seemed to show Daniel attempting to twist — if not maul or break — Trask’s ankle well after the whistle had blown and the play was over. Daniel responded to those allegations Wednesday by denying them and indicating his hand was stuck under a player’s foot and he was just trying to get loose. Well, after new angles of video and pictures emerged Thursday (see embedded tweet), perhaps Daniel would like to re-evaluate his statement?
—My story on UF’s rally at UK and Feleipe Franks’s season-ending injury.
–A report out of Lexington indicated that UK’s Daniel won’t be disciplined by the SEC for Saturday’s game at Mississippi State. The source of that intel was Mark Stoops, who refused further comment on the matter lingering from the UF game.
–Georgia is 8-5 ATS as a home favorite during Kirby Smart’s tenure, while Notre Dame is 8-6 ATS as a road underdog on Brian Kelly’s watch. UGA is listed as either a 14 or 14.5-point home favorite vs. the Fighting Irish. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on CBS.
–Kalani Sitake was 0-4-1 ATS in five games as a home underdog during his four-year tenure as head coach at BYU going into last week’s game vs. USC. With the Cougars’ 30-27 overtime win over the Trojans as five-point home ‘dogs, Sitake got rid of that zero in the win column in such spots. BYU is a home ‘dog again to Washington this week, with the Huskies listed as 6.5-point road ‘chalk.’ Washington is 9-9 ATS as a road favorite under Chris Petersen.
–FIU senior QB James Morgan missed last week’s 30-17 non-covering win over New Hampshire as a 13.5-point home favorite. Morgan, who had a 26/7 TD-INT ratio last season, injured his ankle in a 20-14 home loss to Western Kentucky in Week 2. He was upgraded to ‘probable’ on Thursday morning for Friday’s showdown at La. Tech. The Bulldogs are seven-point home favorites for this 8:00 p.m. ET. kick in Ruston on the CBS Sports Network.
–Troy RB B.J. Smith was lost to a season-ending knee injury in last week’s 47-42 loss to Southern Miss as a three-point home ‘chalk.’ Smith was a first-team All-Sun-Belt selection in 2018 when he ran for 1,186 yards and 13 TDs while averaging 5.4 yards per carry.
–Rutgers QB McLane Carter (concussion) has been downgraded to ‘doubtful’ vs. Boston College. Chris Ash has named sophomore Artur Sitkowski as RU’s starter against the Eagles, who got doubled up by a 48-24 count as 20-point home favorites vs. Kansas last Friday night. Sitkowski has a 4/19 career TD-INT ratio. If you’re BC, do you fire Steve Addazio on the spot if he loses to KU and RU in back-to-back weeks?
–Louisville QB Jawon Pass remained ‘questionable’ on Thursday for his team’s trip to Tallahassee, where there will be tens of thousands of empty seats at Doak Campbell Stadium for FSU’s home game vs. Scott Satterfield’s bunch. Malik Cunningham will most likely get the starting nod if Pass can’t go for U of L. The Seminoles are 6.5-point home favorites. They’re 2-4 ATS as home ‘chalk’ on Willie Taggart’s watch.
–Satterfield went 19-11-1 ATS in 31 road assignments during his coaching tenure at Appalachian State.
–As of Thursday, it remained unclear who would be starting at QB for Mississippi State in its home game vs. Kentucky. Tommy Stevens is ‘questionable’ after leaving last week’s 31-24 home loss to Kansas State with a shoulder injury. He was replaced by true freshman Garrett Shrader, who rushed for 82 yards and one TD on 10 attempts. He showed tremendous promise, toughness and athleticism, but Shrader completed only 4-of-12 passes for 51 yards and made a few freshman mistakes. If he gets the nod, it’ll be his first career start. MSU junior QB Keytaon Thompson was reportedly unavailable vs. the Wildcats due to an upper-body injury. Thompson is expected to be ready (if needed) this week. Mark Stoops’s team is a six or 6.5-point road underdog.
–With the outright win as seven-point underdog last week at Mississippi State, Kansas State improved to 24-8 ATS as a road underdog since 2010. The Wildcats take a 3-0 record both SU and ATS into the open date. Chris Klieman’s team ventures to Stillwater with two weeks of preparation to take on Oklahoma State on Sept. 28.
–Oklahoma State is 9-5 ATS in 14 games as a road underdog since 2010. Mike Gundy’s club is a 5.5-point ‘dog at Texas for a 7:30 p.m. ET. kick on ABC. The Longhorns are 4-7 ATS as home favorites on Tom Herman’s watch.
–Bovada has LSU listed as a seven-point favorite (at even money for bets on the Tigers) for first-quarter wagers at Vanderbilt. I like LSU if you can that play at -7 or fewer.
–Eastern Michigan has won three games in a row as a road underdog against Big Ten teams, including walk-off field goals in victories at Purdue last year and at Illinois last week. Since the 2015 regular-season finale, the Eagles have compiled 29-12-1 spread record. They’re 33-point home favorites vs. Central Connecticut.
—My video preview of Week 4 on MajorWager’s YouTube channel. If you wish, please subscribe, rate and all that good stuff.
—My pick and analysis for Michigan at Wisconsin during an interview on VSIN’s ‘The Edge’ with Matt Youmans and JVT late Wednesday night.
–A decade after his one season in Knoxville, ESPN’s Chris Low penned this outstanding column on Lane Kiffin’s time as head coach of the Tennessee Volunteers, including what he said to Nick Saban in the post-game handshake at midfield.