It’s a new year with the same storyline for coach Mike Leach and his Washington State Cougars.
After a wildly successful season in 2018 in which the Cougars went 11-2, finished in the top 10 of both major polls and defeated Iowa State in the Alamo Bowl, Washington State again will get overlooked in preseason Pac-12 odds and rankings.
The reason is exactly the same as it was last preseason.
Replacing A Legend
No objective media member predicted Gardner Minshew would make people forget all-time leading passer Luke Falk, but that’s exactly what happened. From the first day of fall practice, it was evident that the East Carolina transfer was the right man for the job.
Now the question is who will replace Minshew.
It could be another graduate transfer in Gage Gubrud from nearby Eastern Washington. Gubrud won’t be scared of FBS football, as he led the Eagles to an upset of Washington State in Martin Stadium in 2016.
Other possible replacements include Trey Tinsley, Cammon Cooper and Anthony Gordon. Add in big-time recruit Gunner Cruz and this is a loaded race that might take some time.
Still, this should be Gubrud’s job. He comes from a high-tempo offense, similar to the one Leach likes to run. Eastern Washington’s offense was more balanced (272.2 passing ypg, 255.9 rushing ypg in 2018).
But Gubrud’s right arm should be used to the strain it will go through during a season in a Leach offense. Minshew attempted 662 passes last season. In 2016 as a sophomore, Gubrud threw it 570 times. Not many arms can withstand that work rate.
A toe injury that required surgery cut short Gubrud’s senior season in 2018, leading to the NCAA granting him another year. He also injured his foot leading up to spring practice, costing him some valuable reps in Leach’s system.
Despite all of this, there is a reason why Wazzu brought him in. They’ve seen his game first-hand, they expect him to win the starting job and they expect huge production from the quarterback position again.
Depth At Wide Receiver
The return of arguably the deepest group of receivers in the Pac-12 will help whomever starts at quarterback.
All Pac-12 honoree Tay Martin proved last season that he’s a threat at all times. Add in Jamire Calvin, Travell Harris, Calvin Jackson Jr., Dezmon Patmon, Easop Winston Jr., Kassidy Woods and Renard Bell, and you have a lot of headaches for opposing defensive coordinators.
Running back Max Borghi may cause the most restless nights. As a freshman, he rushed for 366 yards and eight touchdowns, catching 53 passes for 374 yards and four touchdowns.
Defensively Speaking
Washington State lost defensive coordinator Alex Grinch to Ohio State prior to last season. Grinch built a tremendously successful defense in Pullman, prior to which many believed that to be a near-impossible task.
Leach replaced him with Tracy Claeys, previously the head coach at Minnesota. The transition was almost seamless. Claeys has a knack for putting his players in perfect position. That’s a big deal for Washington State’s undersized defensive line.
Lamonte McDougle could be a breakout player on that line. During drills last fall, you could see his natural ability and power.
The only key losses on defense were linebacker Peyton Pelluer and cornerback Darrien Molton. This unit could once again defy gravity and contribute to a winning season despite the team’s offensive style.
Difficult Schedule
Oof!
The Cougars have three sure wins on their schedule in New Mexico State, Northern Colorado and Oregon State. The rest are either tossups or underdog spots.
A trip to Houston to play new coach Dana Holgorsen in Week 3 should be a fascinating offensive matchup. Then Washington State returns home to host what should be an improved UCLA team in head coach Chip Kelly’s second season.
Start 3-1 or better and magical things could be on the horizon.
Next, Wazzu travels to Salt Lake City to face Pac-12 South preseason favorite Utah at altitude. The Cougs escaped the Utes last season with a late-game touchdown pass from Minshew to Easop Winston.
It’s weird to say, but Washington State has owned Oregon the last four years. A trip to Autzen on Oct. 26 will put that streak to the test, as Oregon is getting some preseason College Football Playoff hype. The Ducks are currently favored by 5.5 points.
The Streak
Unfortunately for Washington State, rival Washington and coach Chris Petersen have built a six-game winning streak. Against probably Leach’s best team in Pullman, the Huskies’ defense shut down Minshew and his plethora of receivers in the snow, holding Washington State to a season-low 15 points in a 28-15 win. Things will not be easier at Husky Stadium.
Washington is favored by seven right now in what seems like a good bet on the Huskies.
Final Analysis
If Leach finds the right quarterback, it will be all systems go for the Cougs, who could threaten another double-digit win season.
Leach finds a good quarterback the majority of the time he searches for one. If Gubrud doesn’t work out, there are others waiting to prove themselves.
Right now, the season win total over/under sits at eight.
On paper, that’s just right. The line doesn’t seem to provide value. But Leach has almost constantly exceeded preseason expectations at Washington State. This is a pass for me, but don’t be surprised if the team puts together another magical season.