As of early Monday, most betting shops had Georgia (14-0 straight up, 7-7 against the spread) installed as a 13 or 13.5-point favorite vs. TCU in the College Football playoff finals next Monday (Jan. 9) at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif.
FanDuel and BetMGM opened the total at 61.5 points on New Year’s Day. That number had moved to either 62.5 or 63 at most spots by late Monday morning. The Horned Frogs were +400 on the money line.
TCU (13-1 SU, 10-3-1 ATS) advanced to the CFP finals by beating Michigan 51-45 as an eight-point underdog at the Fiesta Bowl on New Year’s Eve. Sonny Dykes’s team hooked up money-line supporters with a +270 return, and the 96 combined points soared ‘over’ the 56-point total. In fact, the ‘over’ became a winner late in the third quarter.
TCU took the lead with 9:22 left in the first quarter on Bud Clark’s interception that he returned 41 yards for a touchdown. The Horned Frogs, who never trailed, extended their lead to 14-0 on a one-yard TD run by QB Max Duggan.
Duggan’s six-yard TD pass to Taye Barber put TCU in front 21-3 with 4:56 remaining in the second quarter. Michigan cut the deficit to 21-6 at halftime thanks to a 59-yard field goal by Jake Moody as time expired.
Moody’s 21-yard field goal made it 21-9 with 9:29 left in the third quarter. Jim Harbaugh’s team finally got into the end zone on a 34-yard TD pass from J.J. McCarthy to Ronnie Bell midway through the third.
It didn’t stay a one-possession game for long, though. With 4:25 left in the third, Emari Demercado’s one-yard TD run gave TCU a 28-16 advantage. Then McCarthy threw another pick-six, with Dee Winters scoring on a 29-yard interception return. Dykes decided to go for two, but the conversion attempt failed.
Michigan didn’t fold up the tents, however. McCarthy scored on a 20-yard TD run but after the two-point conversion failed, the Wolverines trailed 34-22. Duggan countered with a one-yard TD run less than a minute later.
Forty-six seconds after Duggan scored, Michigan’s Kalel Mullings found paydirt with a one-yard TD run. Less than a minute later with 14:13 remaining, McCarthy hit Roman Wilson with an 18-yard scoring strike. After McCarthy connected with Bell on the two-point conversion, TCU’s lead was trimmed to three, 41-38.
Next, on a crucial third-and-seven play, Duggan hit Quentin Johnston on a crossing pattern. Johnson got past one defender to break into the clear and nobody was catching him on a 76-yard TD reception.
After a field goal extended the Frogs’ lead to 51-38, Michigan responded again with a five-yard TD pass from McCarthy to Wilson. The Wolverines got a stop and had one last chance from their own 25 with 45 seconds left. However, they couldn’t generate a first down.
Duggan ran for 57 yards and two TDs, in addition to throwing for 225 yards and two TDs. He was intercepted twice, though. Johnston had six catches for 163 yards and one TD. Star RB Kendre Miller was off to a great start (see clip below), rushing for 57 yards on eight carries before leaving the game with what he later described as a “tweak of the MCL in one of his knees.” He told media member after the game that he expected to be ready for the CFP finals.
In Miller’s absence, Demercado stepped up to produce 150 rushing yards and one TD on 17 totes.
TCU had a bunch of heroes on defense. Winters had the pick-six, seven tackles and three tackles for loss. Dylan Horton recorded six tackles and four sacks, while Clark finished with a pick-six and five tackles.
Georgia edged Ohio State 42-41 when a potential game-winning field goal with just a few seconds remaining sailed wide left (by a lot). The Buckeyes led nearly the entire game and easily covered the spread as 4.5-point underdogs. The 83 combined points sailed ‘over’ the 62-point total when UGA’s kicker Jack Podlesny buried a 31-yard field goal with 10:14 remaining.
Ryan Day’s team had a 21-7 lead after QB C.J. Stroud found Marvin Harrison Jr. for a 16-yard TD pass with 10:56 left in the second quarter. UGA responded with back-to-back scoring drives and took a 24-21 advantage on a 32-yard field goal from Podlesny with 1:44 left until halftime.
However, the Buckeyes went back in front thanks to a 75-yard drive that took only four plays and 55 seconds. This time, Stroud connected with Xavier Johnson on a 37-yard TD pass.
Ohio St. extended its lead to 35-24 on Stroud’s 10-yard TD pass to Emeka Egbuka early in the third quarter. The Buckeyes got a short field goal late in the third to make it a 14-point game.
With 8:41 remaining, Stetson Bennett found a streaking Arian Smith for a 76-yard scoring strike. After Bennett connected with Ladd McConkey to convert the two-point try, Ohio St.’s lead was down to 38-35.
The Buckeyes went ahead 41-35 when Noah Ruggles buried a 48-yard field goal with 2:43 left. But Bennett had one more answer in his pocket. UGA went 72 yards in five plays with the veteran QB throwing a 10-yard TD pass to Adonai Mitchell with 54 ticks left.
Stroud needed to work quickly to get his team into field-goal range. The drive started with a five-yard run from Stroud, who got out of bounds to stop the clock. Then he hit Julian Fleming for a 12-yard pass to OSU’s 42.
Next, Stroud sensed pressure and fled the pocket with the middle of the field empty. He ran 27 yards to get the Buckeyes’ into Ruggles’ range at UGA’s 31. But on the next three plays, Ohio St. had a one-yard loss on a rushing attempt and two incomplete passes.
Ruggles’ kick never had a chance and UGA now gets a chance to repeat a week from today.
Stroud was tremendous in defeat, upping his stock for the 2023 NFL draft. He completed 23-of-34 passes for 348 yards and four TDs without an interception. Stroud added 34 rushing yards. Egbuka had eight receptions for 112 yards and one TD, while Harrison finished with five catches for 106 yards and two TDs.
Bennett connected on 23-of-34 throws for 398 yards and three TDs compared to one interception. Kenny McIntosh ran for 70 yards on five attempts and had five catches for 56 yards and one TD. Smith had three receptions for 129 yards and one TD.
UGA has won all four all-time meetings against TCU. In the most recent encounter at the 2016 Liberty Bowl, the Bulldogs won a 31-23 decision as three-point underdogs. The 54 combined points went ‘over’ the 48.5-point total on Nick Chubb’s 13-yard TD run with 2:48 remaining.