Let’s pick up the conversation we started last week about Circa’s Games of the Year lines posted on June 15 in Las Vegas. We’ve already covered Weeks 1 through 7.
In Week 8, Circa has posted numbers for only three games. Notre Dame is a 15-point favorite vs. Ga. Tech at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Alabama is a three-point road ‘chalk’ at Tennessee and Georgia is a two-point road favorite at Texas.
Ga. Tech fans had to be pleased with Brent Key’s first full season as head coach. The Yellow Jackets went 3-9, 3-7 and 3-9 in Geoff Collins’s first three years on the job, and they finally fired him after a 1-3 start in 2022.
Key took over as interim HC and promptly led Ga. Tech to a 26-21 win at 24th-ranked Pittsburgh as a 22-point road underdog. One week later, Key led his team to a 23-20 overtime win over Duke as a three-point home underdog.
Key would go 4-4 straight up and 5-3 against the spread in the interim role. Then when the Yellow Jackets failed to lure Willie Fritz to Atlanta from Tulane, they gave Key the full-time gig.
He led Ga. Tech to a 7-6 SU record and an 8-5 ATS mark in 2023. The Yellow Jackets return eight starters on offense and five on defense. They’re 6-3 ATS with four outright wins in nine games as double-digit underdogs on Key’s watch.
Marcus Freeman has a new quarterback in the third season of his tenure. After one year with veteran Sam Hartman under center, Notre Dame will have former Duke star QB Riley Leonard running its offense.
In 21 starts during 27 career games at Duke across three seasons, Leonard has completed 61.7 percent of his passes for 4,450 yards with a 24/10 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also has 1,224 career rushing yards with 19 TDs and a 5.3 yards-per-carry average.
Leonard really shined in 2022, leading Duke to a 9-4 SU record and a 10-3 ATS mark. He connected on 63.8 percent of his throws for 2,967 yards with a 20/6 TD-INT ratio. Leonard added 699 rushing yards, 13 TDs and a 5.6 YPC average.
Duke started 4-0 last year with four wins by margins of 21, 35, 24 and 34 points. The Blue Devils ascended to #17 in the national rankings ahead of a home game vs. 11th-ranked Notre Dame. Dating back to the end of the 2022 campaign, they had won nine of their last 10 contests.
Duke came out on the wrong end of a 21-14 decision vs. Notre Dame. Even worse, Leonard sustained an ankle injury on the game’s final play, and he wasn’t fully healthy the rest of the season.
Then during spring practice in South Bend, issues with Leonard’s ankle resurfaced and he underwent surgery again. Whether Leonard will be ready for Notre Dame’s Week 1 game at Texas A&M remains to be seen.
Alabama’s last trip to Neyland Stadium resulted in a 52-49 loss on a walk-off field goal in an epic thriller at Tennessee. The Crimson Tide exacted revenge in Tuscaloosa last year, pulling away from the 17th-ranked Volunteers in a 34-20 win as a nine-point home ‘chalk.’
Georgia will make its first trip to Austin since 1958 on Oct. 19. Although it’s a road assignment for Kirby Smart’s squad, the Bulldogs are in a favorable spot because they catch the Longhorns coming off their biggest rivalry game of the season against Oklahoma the prior weekend.
In Week 9 on Oct. 26, Circa has Texas A&M -1 vs. LSU, Ole Miss -5 vs. Oklahoma, FSU -2 at Miami, Kansas St. -8 vs. Kansas, Michigan -21 vs. Michigan St. and Penn St. -6 at Wisconsin.
The Rebels are in an ideal situation with two weeks to get healthy and prepare for the Sooners, who will be off of their game in Dallas vs. Texas and a home game vs. South Carolina.
Ole Miss is poised for a monster season and has a schedule that works. Lane Kiffin’s team will probably be an underdog only twice – Circa has it as a three-point road underdog at LSU on Oct. 12 and a seven-point home ‘dog vs. Georgia on Nov. 9 – and there’s no sign of Alabama, Texas, Missouri, Texas A&M or Tennessee on the 12-game slate.
The Rebels return 10 starters on offense and 10 on defense. Kiffin has become The Godfather of the Portal in recent years, and he once again brought in the #1 transfer-specific class, per the 247Sports Composite.
Ole Miss has 20 incoming transfers, including seven four-star players and one five-star in former Texas A&M defensive tackle Walter Nolen. Other key additions are ex-South Carolina WR ‘Juice’ Wells (first-team All-SEC in 2022), former Florida DE Princely Umanmielene, ex-Arkansas LB Chris Paul Jr. and former LSU RB Logan Diggs.
I’ll have plenty more content on Ole Miss this summer, but I’ll mention now that I’ve already bet the Rebels to go ‘over’ 9.5 wins. I’ve hit their season win totals to go ‘over’ in each of the last two years. Jay Greeson and I previewed Ole Miss during a recent edition of Bets & Ballgames for Southeastern 14.
FSU has won three straight head-to-head meetings over Miami, including a 45-3 road win in 2022 at Hard Rock Stadium.
In Week 10, Circa has five lined games: Clemson -9 vs. Louisville, Iowa -3 vs. Wisconsin, Oregon -4 at Michigan, Ohio St. -5 at Penn St. and Georgia -19 vs. Florida (in Jacksonville). The only number that’s budged since opening is the Hawkeyes moving from -2 to -3.
Iowa is another team that I’ve backed to go ‘over’ (7.5 at a -122 price at FanDuel). The Hawkeyes, who went 10-2 SU and 6-5-1 ATS during the regular season last year, lost only 18 lettermen and bring back 10 starters on offense and eight on defense. Their defense gave up an average of only 14.8 points per game in 2023.
With the exception of at Ohio St. on Oct. 5, Iowa doesn’t have any games on its schedule where it’s going to be a considerable underdog. The Hawkeyes had atrocious quarterback play last year after Cade McNamara went down with a season-ending injury in Week 5. With McNamara back healthy, the offense should be improved.
After being dominated by Florida for 27 years, UGA has won six of the last seven head-to-head meetings against the Gators, who have had three losing seasons in a row.
In Week 11 on Nov. 9, there are six lined games, including Notre Dame -5 vs FSU, Texas Tech -6.5 vs. Colorado, LSU -1 vs. Alabama, Texas -18 vs. Florida, UGA -7 at Ole Miss and Missouri -2 vs. Oklahoma.
I’m bullish on Missouri -2 vs. Oklahoma and like the Tigers to go ‘over’ their season win total of 9.5 (+120). Eli Drinkwitz’s team has two weeks to prepare for the Sooners, who will be playing their fifth game in five weeks when they go to Columbia.
FSU’s trip to South Bend could represent its only underdog spot of the regular season. The Seminoles have lost three games in a row to the Fighting Irish, including road setbacks in 2018 (42-13) and 2020 (42-26).
Circa opened Notre Dame as a three-point favorite, but it moved the number two points to -5 within 24 hours.
UGA thumped Ole Miss 52-17 as a 10.5-point home favorite last November. The Rebels are 3-0 ATS with two outright wins in their last three games as home underdogs, and they’re 4-2 ATS in six total games as home ‘dogs on Kiffin’s watch.
When Kalen DeBoer brings his troops to Redstick, LSU will be hoping to avenge a 42-28 loss at Alabama last year. The Tide owns a 10-2 SU record and a 7-5 ATS mark in its last 12 head-to-head meetings against the Tigers, who are 13-1 SU in 14 home games during Brian Kelly’s tenure, including a 32-31 overtime win over ‘Bama in 2022.
Circa has posted spreads for only three games in Week 12. LSU is -6 at Florida, Oregon is -11 at Wisconsin and UGA is -15 vs. Tennessee.
The Gators have lost five games in a row to LSU both SU and ATS, including a 52-35 defeat in Baton Rouge last year. The ‘over’ has hit in six consecutive head-to-head meetings with average combined scores of 74.0 points per game.
Billy Napier’s team will be in the middle of a brutal five-game stretch that’s preceded by the game against Georgia and a trip to Austin when Texas has two weeks to prepare for UF. After hosting LSU, the Gators host Ole Miss and then finish the regular season at FSU.
Oregon opened as a nine-point home favorite for its trip to Madison, but the number was quickly adjusted to -11. Dan Lanning’s squad will be making its third flight East in a five-week stretch. The Ducks play at Purdue on Oct. 19 and at Michigan on Nov. 2.
Wisconsin has two weeks to prepare for Oregon, which will be playing its eighth game in eight weeks. The Badgers had a disappointing first year under Luke Fickell, going 7-6 both SU and ATS. They return seven starters on offense and eight on defense.
Tyler Van Dyke is expected to be the starting QB for Wisconsin. He spent four seasons at Miami, starting 29 games and throwing for 7,487 yards with a 54/23 career touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Tennessee hasn’t won at UGA since Josh Dobbs’s Hail Mary TD pass on the game’s final play in 2016. The Vols are 1-4 ATS in five games as road underdogs during Josh Heupel’s tenure. They’ve lost seven games in a row to the Bulldogs and are 0-5 ATS in the last five encounters.
On Nov. 23, Circa has four games on the board. Kansas is -6.5 vs. Colorado, USC is -7 at UCLA, Alabama is -2 at Oklahoma and Texas A&M is -2 at Auburn.
For the Aggies’ trip to The Plains, both teams will be in major look-ahead situations. Ditto to Alabama in its trip to Norman with the Iron Bowl on deck. Texas A&M will have its first game against arch-rival Texas since 2011 in College Station the following week.
Oklahoma will most likely be in its first game as a home underdog on Brent Venables’ watch. The Sooners have only been home ‘dogs once in the last decade, losing 45-24 as one-point ‘dogs vs. Ohio St. in 2016.
Circa has 11 games on the board for Rivalry Weekend on Nov. 30. Those lined matchups include Clemson -13 vs. South Carolina, FSU -11 vs. Florida, Kentucky -1 vs. Louisville, Ohio St. -10 vs. Michigan, Oregon -19 vs. Washington, Notre Dame -4 at USC, Alabama -13 vs. Auburn, LSU -5 vs. Oklahoma, Ole Miss -21 vs. Mississippi St., Texas -5 at Texas A&M and NC St. -6 at North Carolina.
Circa opened the Rebels as 19-point home ‘chalk’ before moving them up to -21. Mississippi St. won a 24-22 decision at 20th-ranked Ole Miss as a two-point road underdog in its last trip to Oxford in 2022.
South Carolina was victorious in its last trip to Death Valley in 2022, rallying from a double-digit deficit to beat Clemson 31-30 and end a seven-year losing streak in the rivalry. The Tigers responded last year with a 16-7 win over the Gamecocks in Columbia.
Kentucky is 5-0 both SU and ATS in its last five games against Louisville in the Governor’s Cup. The Wildcats won 38-31 over the Cardinals as 7.5-point road underdogs last season. I like UK -1 vs. U of L.
Auburn hasn’t won in Tuscaloosa since 2010 when Cam Newton orchestrated an incredible second-half comeback. Hugh Freeze’s team has lost its last two home games against ‘Bama in incredibly heartbreaking fashion, including last year’s 27-24 setback on Jalen Milroe’s 31-yard TD pass on fourth and goal with 32 seconds remaining.
Ohio St. has won 15 of the last 19 head-to-head meetings with Michigan, but the Buckeyes have suddenly lost three games in a row to the Wolverines.