Circa released its spreads for college football’s Games of the Year on June 15, posting numbers on the sides for 65 different games.
There are four Week 2 games on the board, including Texas as a four-point road favorite at Michigan. Circa opened the Longhorns at -5, but the number was down to -4 on Tuesday morning.
The Wolverines went 15-0 straight up and 9-5-1 against the spread last year, winning 11 times by double-digit margins, including a 34-13 triumph over Washington in the finals of the College Football Playoff.
However, head coach Jim Harbaugh left for the NFL to become HC of the Los Angeles Chargers. Sherrone Moore replaces him after going undefeated in the interim HC role while Harbaugh served two different multi-game suspensions from the NCAA last year.
Michigan lost 42 lettermen and returns only two starters on offense and five on defense.
If Michigan beats Fresno St. at home in its season opener, Texas will come to The Big House in Ann Arbor looking to end Michigan’s 23-game home winning streak. The Longhorns bring back seven starters on offense and eight on defense from a squad that finished 12-2 SU and 7-7 ATS, losing a 37-31 decision to Washington in the CFP semifinals.
The other lines in Week 2 include Tennessee -5 vs. North Carolina St. in Charlotte, Nebraska -5 vs. Colorado and Iowa -2.5 vs. Iowa St. The Hawkeyes have moved to -2.5 after opening as two-point home ‘chalk.’
Kirk Ferentz’s team is 7-1 SU and 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight head-to-head meetings against the Cyclones, who lost only 15 lettermen and return 19 starters (10 on offense and nine on defense). Iowa St., which finished 7-6 both SU and ATS in 2023, won 10-7 in Iowa City two years ago as a 3.5-point road underdog.
Tennessee (9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS) returns six starters on offense and five on defense from a team that capped the season with a 35-0 win over Iowa at the Citrus Bowl. The Vols have high expectations in 2024, as they hand the keys to their offense to true sophomore quarterback Nico Iamaleava, a former five-star recruit who looked outstanding in his first career start against the Hawkeyes.
NC St. (9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS) won its last five regular-season games of 2023, including four victories as an underdog, before losing a 28-19 decision to Kansas St. at the Pop-Tarts Bowl. The Wolfpack have eight starters back on offense and five on defense, and they add an elite QB in Grayson Allen, who won Sun Belt Player of the Year honors in his first three seasons at Coastal Carolina.
Nebraska will be looking to avenge a 36-14 loss at Colorado last year.
In Week 3, Circa has lines for three games: Alabama -9 at Wisconsin, Kansas St. -9 vs. Arizona and LSU -10 at South Carolina. The only one of those three contests that has had any line movement is the Crimson Tide going from -8 to -9.
In his head-coaching career at the FBS level, new Alabama HC Kalen DeBoer is 11-1-1 ATS in 13 non-conference games. The lone non-cover came in the CFP finals vs. Michigan last year. (Hat Tip to Phil Steele for that stat.)
The Week 4 games on Sept. 21 include Clemson -8 vs. NC St., Notre Dame -9.5 vs. Louisville, Michigan -9 vs. USC, LSU -18 vs. UCLA and Oklahoma -3.5 vs. Tennessee. The Fighting Irish opened as an eight-point home favorite to the Cardinals this past Saturday, while the Sooners were initially just two-point home ‘chalk’ to the Vols.
LSU will be looking for revenge after taking an embarrassing 38-27 loss at UCLA in the 2021 season opener. In Tennessee’s only previous trip to Norman, it lost 34-10 at OU in 2014. The Vols will go into that road tilt on a 2-5 slump both SU and ATS in their last seven road assignments.
In Week 5, Circa has Miami installed as a seven-point home favorite vs. Va. Tech on Friday night. I certainly lean to the Hokies in this spot. The Hurricanes have lost three straight ACC openers and are 4-12 ATS in their 16 league games during Mario Cristobal’s tenure.
Va. Tech (7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS) went 5-2 both SU and ATS in its last seven games last year and all seven of its wins in 2023 were by double-digit margins. The Hokies lost only 12 lettermen and bring back 11 starters on offense and 10 on defense.
(Side Note: I’m also a big fan of Va. Tech -13 at Vanderbilt in Week 1.)
The other Week 5 lines are FSU -9 at SMU, Georgia -5 at Alabama and Texas A&M -10.5 vs. Arkansas (in Arlington, TX.). The only movement for these contests since Saturday has been the Aggies going up one-half point from -10.
For all the success that Kirby Smart has enjoyed during his tenure at his alma mater, it’s a fact that UGA remains Alabama’s whipping boy. The Bulldogs have lost eight of the last nine head-to-head meetings against the Tide since winning at Bryant-Denny Stadium in 2007 on Matthew Stafford’s TD pass in overtime.
If this line holds and UGA does go off as a road favorite in Tuscaloosa on Sept. 28, it will be Alabama’s first game as a home underdog since a 41-34 loss to LSU in 2007 as a seven-point ‘dog.
Circa has four lined games in Week 6, including FSU -4 vs. Clemson, Florida -6 vs. Central Florida, Michigan -8 at Washington and UGA -21 vs. Auburn. Those four contests haven’t seen any movement from the opening numbers.
Clemson has won three games in a row in Tallahassee, but it will be looking for revenge after dropping a 31-24 heartbreaker to the Seminoles in overtime last year. With the comeback win, FSU ended a seven-game losing streak to Clemson and handed the Tigers their first ACC home loss since 2016.
Trailing by seven late in the third quarter, FSU got a defensive touchdown on Kalen DeLoach’s 56-yard fumble return. With 1:47 left in regulation, Clemson kicker Jonathan Weitz missed a 29-yard field-goal attempt.
Clemson will be facing its former QB in DJ Uiagalelei, who played for the Tigers from 2020-22. He transferred to Oregon St. in 2023 before leaving Corvallis to play for Mike Norvell.
After Dan Mullen was fired with one game left in the 2021 campaign, Florida beat FSU to get bowl eligible in its regular-season finale. However, the Gators lost 29-17 vs. Central Florida as seven-point favorites at the Gasparilla Bowl. They’ll be out for revenge when they host the Knights on Oct. 5 at The Swamp.
Circa has seven lined games in Week 7: Kansas St. -6 at Colorado, Iowa -4 vs. Washington, Ohio St. -1 at Oregon, Penn St. -5 at USC, Tennessee -9 vs. Florida, LSU -3 vs. Ole Miss and Texas -8 vs. Oklahoma (in Dallas). All of those games have remained on their opening numbers.
The Vols have lost 17 of their last 19 head-to-head meetings against the Gators, who have lost by more than five points in Knoxville only once since 1993 (a 38-28 loss at UT in 2016 when UF blew a 21-0 lead).
Ohio St. at Oregon is one of the nation’s premier matchups in 2024. The Buckeyes have gone 11-2 SU in three consecutive seasons, but they return seven starters on offense and nine on defense. Furthermore, Ryan Day’s team lost merely 17 lettermen and brought in the nation’s #3 overall recruiting class.
Ohio St.’s 2024 class features five five-star prospects from high school and a five-star transfer in safety Caleb Downs, who was the SEC Freshman of the Year and a first-team All-SEC selection at Alabama last season. According to the 247 Sports Composite, the Buckeyes have the country’s #9 class in terms of transfer-specific imports.
They improved their offense by signing two four-star transfers in QB Will Howard (Kansas St.) and RB Quinshon Judkins (Ole Miss), who had 2,725 rushing yards, 31 TDs and a 5.0 yards-per-carry average in two seasons with the Rebels.
In four seasons at Kansas St., Howard started 33 games. He has a 48/25 career touchdown-to-interception ratio, but he has 39 TD passes compared to 14 picks in the last two years. Howard has also produced 921 career rushing yards and 19 TDs.
Oregon is 22-5 SU and 19-8 ATS in 27 games during Dan Lanning’s tenure. The Ducks finished 2023 with a 12-2 SU record and an 11-3 ATS mark. They bring back eight starters on offense and nine on defense.
Oregon lost QB Bo Nix, who was selected in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft by the Denver Broncos with the #12 overall pick. Nevertheless, the Ducks shouldn’t experience a downgrade at QB with the addition of Dillon Gabriel, who spent the last two years as Oklahoma’s starting signal caller.
Gabriel has 49 career starts in three seasons at UCF and two at OU. He has an incredible 125/26 career TD-INT ratio to go with 1,060 career rushing yards and 26 TDs. Gabriel’s 14,865 career passing yards are ranked #8 in NCAA history. If he stays healthy in 2024, Gabriel will likely finish his college career #2 in career passing yards behind only Case Keenum (19,217 at Houston from 2007-11).
Oregon’s roster was going to be loaded with its returning players, but Lanning also brought in the nation’s #4 overall recruiting class and the #2 class in terms of transfer-specific players. The 14 transfers include one five-star (WR Evan Stewart from Texas A&M) and six four-star players.
Lanning added depth at QB with Dante Moore, a four-star transfer who started five games as a true freshman at UCLA in 2023.