The 2025 College Football Playoff bracket was released on Sunday. Alabama and Miami were the last two at-large selections at #9 and #10, respectively, with Notre Dame designated as the First Team Out.
The first of four first-round matchups will take place on Friday, Dec. 19, in Norman, where eighth-seeded Oklahoma (10-2 straight up, 6-5-1 against the spread) will host Alabama at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ABC. As of Monday afternoon, most books had the Crimson Tide installed as a one or 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 40.5.
These teams already met in Tuscaloosa on Nov. 15 with the Sooners winning a 23-21 decision as 6.5-point road underdogs. The 44 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 46.5-point total.
Oklahoma cornerback Eli Bowen intercepted quarterback Ty Simpson and returned the pick 87 yards for a touchdown to give his team a 10-0 lead with 2:03 remaining in the first quarter. QB John Mateer had a 20-yard TD run in the second quarter to extend OU’s lead to 17-7.
OU junior kicker Tate Sandell buried all three of his field-goal attempts, including a 52-yarder in the third quarter and the go-ahead 24-yarder with 13:41 left. The Sooners’ defense limited Alabama to 80 rushing yards on 33 attempts and produced three turnovers.
Alabama had a 23-12 advantage in first downs, a 406-212 advantage in total yards and had nearly a 10-minute advantage in time of possession. However, the Tide was -3 in turnover margin and missed a field goal in the gut-wrenching defeat.
Alabama (10-3 SU, 7-4-2 ATS) is 4-1 SU and 1-2-2 ATS in five road assignments this season, while OU owns a 6-1 SU record and a 2-4-1 ATS ledger in seven home contests. The Tide played in Norman last season and got spanked 24-3 as a 14-point road favorite.
Oklahoma is 1-1 both SU and ATS in a pair of home underdog spots during Brent Venables’ four-year tenure. The Sooners have been underdogs three times this season, going 2-1 both SU and ATS with outright wins at Alabama and at Tennessee.
The OU-Bama winner will face Indiana in Pasadena at the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day at 4:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
There are three other first-round matchups on Saturday, Dec. 20. Texas A&M (11-1 SU, 5-7 ATS), the #7 seed, will take on #10 seed Miami in College Station at noon Eastern on ABC. As of Monday afternoon, most shops had the Aggies as 3.5-point home favorites with a total of 51.5. The Hurricanes were in the +140 to +160 neighborhood on the money line.
Mike Elko’s squad won its first 11 games before losing 27-17 at Texas as a 2.5-point road favorite. The Aggies own quality wins at Notre Dame (41-40), at LSU (49-25) and at Missouri (38-17). They have seven wins by 17 points or more.
Texas A&M is unbeaten in seven home games, compiling a 2-5 ATS record. The Aggies are 1-1 ATS as single-digit home ‘chalk’ this year, beating Florida 34-17 as seven-point favorites and Auburn 16-10 as 6.5-point favorites. They’re 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS in six games (home or away) as single-digit ‘chalk.’
Miami (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS) is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS in four road assignments this season, losing 26-20 at SMU in overtime. Mario Cristobal’s team has won four games in a row since losing to the Mustangs, including a 38-7 win at Pittsburgh as a 6.5-point road favorite in its regular-season finale.
Miami has eight wins by margins of 17 points or more. The Hurricanes opened the season with a 27-24 home win over Notre Dame and beat USF 49-12 as 17.5-point home favorites. Their other loss came at home vs. Louisville (24-21) as 10.5-point favorites.
Miami lost a 17-9 decision at Texas A&M as a 5.5-point road underdog in 2022, but the ‘Canes avenged that defeat with a 48-33 win over the Aggies as 2.5-point home underdogs in 2023.
The Texas A&M-Miami winner will advance to play Ohio St. in the CFP quarterfinals on New Year’s Eve at 7:30 p.m. Eastern in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic on ESPN.
Ole Miss (11-1 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) will face Tulane in a 6/11 matchup at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium at 3:30 p.m. Eastern on TNT. As of Monday afternoon, most books had the Rebels listed as 16.5 or 17-point home favorites with a total of 56.5. The Green Wave were +550 to +600 on the money line.
Ole Miss is undefeated in eight home games with a 5-2-1 ATS record. The Rebels have won five games in a row since taking their only loss at Georgia (43-35).
These teams squared off at this same venue on Sept. 20 in Week 4, with Lane Kiffin’s team winning 45-10 as an 11.5-point home favorite. QB Trinidad Chambliss completed 17-of-27 passes for 307 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. He added 112 rushing yards on 14 attempts, while RB Kewan Lacy had 68 rushing yards and two TDs on 18 carries.
Tulane (11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS) QB Jake Retzlaff connected on just 5-of-17 throws for 56 yards, but he did have 51 rushing yards on eight attempts.
Tulane is 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS in six road assignments this year. During Jon Sumrall’s two-year tenure, the Green Wave has a 0-2 record both SU and ATS as a road underdog.
Sumrall remains in his role as head coach even though he’s headed to Florida next season. As for the Rebels, they’re obviously no longer Kiffin’s team since he left for Baton Rouge two days after the Egg Bowl to become the HC at LSU.
Kiffin took many of his offensive assistants with him to LSU, including offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. However, Weis Jr. is back in Oxford and will call plays for Ole Miss and remain with the team through its CFP run.
Pete Golding was named the new permanent HC of Ole Miss on Nov. 30. He was in his third year with the Rebels as defensive coordinator.
The Ole Miss-Tulane winner will get Georgia at the Sugar Bowl on New Year’s Day at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
In the final first-round game on Dec. 20, #5 seed Oregon (11-1 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) will host #12 seed James Madison at 7:30 p.m. Eastern on TNT. As of Monday afternoon, most spots had the Ducks as 21-point home favorites with a total of 50.5. JMU was a +1000 (or 10/1) money-line underdog.
Oregon is 6-1 SU and 4-2-1 ATS in seven home games, taking its lone loss vs. unbeaten and #1 seed Indiana. The Ducks are on a six-game winning streak since the loss to the Hoosiers, posting a 4-2 spread record in that span. They have quality wins at Washington (26-14), vs. #16 USC (42-27), at #23 Iowa (18-16) and at Penn St. (30-24 in OT).
JMU (12-1 SU, 8-5 ATS) was given a path to the CFP thanks to Duke’s win over Virginia in the ACC Championship Game. With the Dukes at #24 in the CFP rankings, they got in ahead of the unranked Blue Devils thanks to their higher ranking.
JMU beat Troy 31-14 in the Sun Belt Championship Game as a 24.5-point home favorite. The Dukes’ lone loss of the season came at Louisville (28-14) in Week 2. They’ve won 11 consecutive games since then, winning by double-digit margins nine times.
JMU HC Bob Chesney has accepted the same gig at UCLA, but he’ll remain with the Dukes through their CFP run.
The Oregon-JMU winner will move on to face fourth-seeded Texas Tech on New Year’s Day at the Capital One Orange Bowl at noon Eastern on ESPN.
Indiana, Ohio St., Georgia and Texas Tech are the top four seeds in that order.
FanDuel has the Buckeyes as +220 ‘chalk’ to repeat as CFP champions. The rest of the board looks like this:
Indiana +290
UGA +550
Oregon +800
Texas Tech +900
Texas A&M +1700 (or 17/1)
Alabama 22/1
Miami 22/1
Ole Miss 22/1
Oklahoma 50/1
JMU 500/1
Tulane 750/1
If I could only make one play in terms of the CFP futures, it would be for one unit on Texas Tech to win nine units.