The 2023 bowl season gets kicked off Saturday morning at 11:00 a.m. Eastern in Myrtle Beach, S.C., where the first of six games will be played when Ohio (9-3 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) takes on Ga. Southern.
Tim Albin’s team is going to be without its two best quarterbacks, its two best running backs and two of its three best wide receivers.
As of Friday morning, most books had Ga. Southern (6-6 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) installed as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 48.5 or 49. The Bobcats were in the +140 to +150 range on the money line.
Ga. Southern (6-6 straight up, 5-6-1 against the spread) has lost four games in a row both SU and ATS, while Ohio is on a three-game winning streak (2-1 ATS) with victories by margins of 10, 14 and 11 points to close out the regular season.
So why is Ga. Southern favored, you ask? Well, Ohio has personnel issues galore, especially to its skill players on offense.
Before we get to those, though, let’s point out how the Sun Belt is a vastly superior conference compared to the MAC. Also, the Eagles won their six games by margins of 34, 14, 37, 10, 10 and 17 points.
They also played a MAC foe on the road and blasted Ball St. 40-3 as 5.5-point road favorites. Ga. Southern doesn’t have any issues in terms of injuries, opt outs or portal entries to key players, either.
On the flip side, the Bobcats are being forced to give third-string QB Parker Navarro the first start of his career. That’s because Kurtis Rourke, who is second in program history in career passing yards with 7,651, has transferred to Indiana.
Rourke has a 50/16 career TD-INT ratio and 11 career rushing TDs. Rourke also has 828 career rushing yards and was the 2022 MAC Player of the Year when he was the nation’s highest-graded QB by Pro Football Focus before going down with a season-ending injury in November.
Navarro has completed 7-of-10 passes this year for 65 yards and two TDs with one interception. The Bobcats are down to QB3 because backup QB CJ Harris, who led them to a 30-27 win over Wyoming in last year’s Arizona Bowl, went down with a season-ending injury in September.
Ohio will also be without its second and third-leading WRs, Miles Cross and Tyler Walton, who are both in the transfer portal. Cross had 47 catches for 599 yards and five TDs in 11 games, while Walton had 37 receptions for 348 yards and two TDs.
Ohio won’t have its top two RBs, either. Starting RB Sieh Bangura is in the portal after producing 811 rushing yards and seven TDs with a 4.6 yards-per-carry average. Bangura also had 18 catches for 159 yards and one TD.
In 2022, Bangura had 940 rushing yards, 12 TDs and a 4.8 YPC average, in addition to 23 receptions for 208 yards and two TDs.
Ohio backup RB O’Shaan Allison has also dipped into the portal. Allison had 452 rushing yards and three TDs this year.
The Bobcats have only two RBs that’ll be in uniform Saturday who have touches the field this year, but the duo of RBs Rickey Hunt and Quintell Quinn combined for only 41 rushing yards and 16 snaps this season.
Ohio has won four bowl games in a row, but only one of those (last year) has come under third-year HC Tim Albin.
PREDICTION: If you can buy the half-point from -3.5 down to the key number of -3 at a price of -130 or hopefully cheaper, then we recommend an average-size play on Ga. Southern due to Ohio’s personnel issues.