Published on Tuesday, 11/19/24, at 10:17 a.m. Eastern.
Updated on Wednesday, 11/20/24, at 10:48 a.m. Eastern.
FanDuel sent out opening numbers Monday for 15 different games on Rivalry Weekend.
Let’s start with a game on Thanksgiving night in New Orleans, where Tulane (9-2 straight up, 9-2 against the spread) will play host to Memphis. As of early Tuesday morning, the book had the Green Wave installed as a 14.5-point home favorite.
But an hour or so later, Tulane was adjusted to -13.5. The total was 55.5 points (‘over’ -120, ‘under’ -102), while the Tigers moved from +450 on the money line down to +365. Both teams have open dates this weekend and two weeks to prepare for each other.
Jon Sumrall’s team is 4-1 both SU and ATS in five home games this year, with the lone defeat coming in a 34-27 loss to Kansas St. as a 9.5-point underdog. Memphis (9-2 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) is 2-2 both SU and ATS in four road assignments.
The Tigers have won back-to-back games, but they are mired in a 2-5-1 ATS slide. With that said, they haven’t lost by more than 12 points this year.
Since losing 34-19 at Oklahoma in Week 3, Tulane has ripped off eight consecutive wins while going 7-1 ATS. The Green Wave has won six of those eight games by margins of 14 points or more.
Tulane has won three of the last four head-to-head meetings against Memphis, going 4-0 ATS. The Green Wave captured a 31-21 win at Memphis last year as a four-point road ‘chalk.’
The Egg Bowl has moved from Thanksgiving night to Black Friday this year. FanDuel has Ole Miss (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) listed as a 27.5-point home favorite (at a -120 price) vs. Mississippi St.
The total is 60.5 points, while the Bulldogs are +1600 on the money line.
Ole Miss has prevailed in three of the last four Egg Bowls, but Mississippi St. is 2-1-1 in those four meetings and won a 24-22 decision in Oxford two years ago.
Like the Bulldogs from Starkville, Ga. Tech (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) would love nothing more than to throw a wrench into the College Football Playoff plans for its arch-rival Georgia this year. UGA (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) kept its CFP hopes alive this past weekend by beating Tennessee 31-17 as a 7.5-point home favorite.
FanDuel had Kirby Smart’s team listed as a 20.5-point home favorite vs. Ga. Tech on Monday night, but the number was moved down to -19.5 on Tuesday morning. The Yellow Jackets were +860 on the money line, and the total was 54.5 points.
Since Brent Key took over on The Flats, Ga. Tech has thrived as a double-digit underdog. In fact, the Yellow Jackets have compiled a 7-5 ATS record with five outright wins in 12 games as double-digit ‘dogs on Key’s watch.
However, two of the five non-covers came last month when Ga. Tech star QB Haynes King was sidelined with an injury. Furthermore, the Yellow Jackets were double-digit ‘dogs all week long ahead of their Nov. 9 home game vs. Miami 10 days ago.
But on Friday night before facing the Hurricanes, reports surfaced that King would be back in the lineup. At that point, the Yellow Jackets were adjusted from 10.5-point home underdogs to +9.5. They handed the ‘Canes their first loss of the year in a 28-23 upset win.
In the two head-to-head meetings between these Peach State rivals since Key took over, Georgia has been ranked #1 in the nation. Nevertheless, Ga. Tech covered the spread in a 37-14 loss in Athens two years ago as a 36-point road underdog.
The Bulldogs won 31-23 in Atlanta last year, but the Yellow Jackets hooked up their backers as 24-point home ‘dogs.
As of Tuesday morning, FanDuel has North Carolina installed as a 7.5-point home favorite (at a -115 price) vs. North Carolina St. The Wolfpack had +250 money-line odds, while the total was 54.5 points.
By Wednesday morning, however, UNC (6-4 SU, 2-7-1 ATS) was down to -5.5 (-115) and NC St. had +172 odds to win outright.
Mack Brown’s team will take a three-game winning streak into Saturday’s ACC showdown at Boston College. The ‘under’ has cashed in three straight games for the Tar Heels and five of their last six.
NC St. (5-5 SU, 2-8 ATS) has won three games in a row over UNC, including last year’s 39-20 win as a 2.5-point home underdog. The Wolfpack also won 30-27 in Chapel Hill as a 6.5-point ‘dog in 2022.
Dave Doeren’s team hasn’t missed out on the postseason since 2019, but that streak could be at stake in Chapel Hill if NC St. loses this Thursday night at Ga. Tech.
In another ACC tilt, Duke is favored by 3.5 points (-105 price) at Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons are +134 on the money line, and the total is 49.5 points.
Ohio St. (9-1 SU, 5-5 ATS) is listed as a 23.5-point home favorite vs. Michigan. The total is 44.5 points, and the Wolverines are +1400 to win outright.
Michigan (5-5 SU, 3-7 ATS) has won three in a row over the Buckeyes, including last season’s 30-24 win as a 3.5-point home underdog.
Oregon is an 18.5-point home favorite vs. Washington with a total of 51.5 points. The Huskies are +720 on the money line.
Despite a 16-14 loss at home vs. No. Illinois in Week 2, sixth-ranked Notre Dame (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS) appears to be a lock for the CFP if it can take care of business in its final two regular-season games. That won’t be an easy task, though, as the Fighting Irish will take on Army this Saturday at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx.
As of Tuesday morning, most books had Marcus Freeman’s team favored by 14 or 14.5 points against the Black Knights, who have won all nine of their games by margins of at least 11 points.
If Notre Dame can get past Army, then it has to travel across the country to face USC. FanDuel has the Fighting Irish as a 5.5-point road favorite (-115 price) against the Trojans, who are +172 on the money line. The total is 52.5 points.
USC (5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS) is hoping to get bowl eligible when it plays Saturday at UCLA.
Florida (5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS) is a 13.5-point road favorite at FSU, which is +460 on the money line. The total is 45.5 points.
UF is a 10-point home underdog Saturday vs. Ole Miss. If the Gators aren’t able to knock off the Rebels, they’ll come to Tallahassee in need of a win to extend their season.
As for the Seminoles, they are undoubtedly the nation’s most disappointing team and possibly one of the most disappointing squads in the past decade. They started the season as a Top-10 club in most polls, but Mike Norvell’s bunch is an atrocious 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS ahead of Saturday’s home game vs. Charleston Southern.
Clemson is a 2.5-point home favorite (-124 price) vs. South Carolina. The total is 48.5 points, and the Gamecocks are +125 on money line.
Shane Beamer’s team is on fire, winning four consecutive contests to improve to 7-3 both SU and ATS. Two of South Carolina’s three losses have been by five combined points in games it led in the fourth quarter.
Dabo Swinney’s team has won eight of the last nine head-to-head meetings between these Palmetto State rivals, but the Gamecocks rallied to edge the Tigers, 31-30, as 14-point road underdogs in Death Valley two years ago.
Tennessee is installed as a 12.5-point road favorite at Vanderbilt, and the total is 49.5 points. The Commodores are +390 on the money line.
Vandy (6-4 SU, 7-3 ATS) is 5-0 ATS with three outright wins in five games as a double-digit ‘dog this year. Since winning three straight head-to-head meetings against the Volunteers from 2016-18, the ‘Dores have lost five straight in this rivalry by margins of 18 points or more.
FanDuel had Alabama (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) as a 15.5-point home favorite vs. Auburn early Tuesday, but that number was down to -14.5 late Wednesday morning. The total is 52.5 points, and the Tigers went from +520 on the money line Tuesday to +440 a day later.
Auburn (4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS) needs wins at home vs. Texas A&M and in the Iron Bowl to become eligible for the postseason. Meanwhile, Kalen DeBoer’s team appears to be in good shape for a CFP bid if it can prevail at Oklahoma and vs. Auburn.
The Crimson Tide has won four in a row over Auburn and is 12-4 SU and 8-7 ATS in the 15 Iron Bowls dating back to 2007.
Louisville is a 2.5-point road favorite at Kentucky. The Wildcats are 5-0 both SU and ATS in the last five games against the Cardinals in the Governor’s Cup.
Assuming Miami (9-1 SU, 5-5 ATS) can beat Wake Forest at home this weekend, it’ll be attempting to keep its CFP hopes alive at the Carrier Dome on Nov. 30. FanDuel has the ‘Canes as 9.5-point road favorites (-124 price) at Syracuse.
The Orange have +285 odds to win outright, while the total is set at 64.5 points. The ‘over’ is 7-2-1 overall for UM.
Finally, Texas (9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS) is a 7.5-point road ‘chalk’ (-118 price) at Texas A&M, which is +250 on the money line. The total is 50.5 points (‘over’ -114, ‘under’ -106).
The Longhorns are currently ranked #3 in the CFP rankings, but can they afford another loss? Steve Sarkisian’s team doesn’t have many quality wins on its resume, and it took an assbeating from Georgia in its own house.
The only wins Texas has over teams that have a winning record going into Week 13 are Colorado St. (7-3) and Vandy (6-4). The Longhorns are 6-7 ATS in 13 games as road favorites during Sark’s four-year tenure.
Texas A&M (8-2 SU, 3-7 ATS) is 10-6 ATS as a home underdog since the start of the 2014 campaign. These bitter rivals haven’t met since 2011.
If I could only make one play out of all of these games, it would be Ga. Tech +19.5 at UGA.