Published on Friday, 10/25/24, at 4:52 p.m. Eastern.
Updated on Saturday, 10/26/24, at 8:02 a.m. Eastern.
Before previewing all of the SEC showdowns for today, let’s hit on a few other things and share some links.
-Here’s the Week 9 edition of my podcast, Bets & Ballgames, that I co-host with Jay Greeson on Southeastern 16’s YouTube channel. We previewed all of the SEC games on this week’s show and gave out our non-SEC plays for the weekend. Our show is sponsored by BetOnline and myperfectfranchise.net.
-Ga. Tech Tech QB Haynes King is ‘out’ again today at Va. Tech. Zach Pyron will start for the Yellow Jackets, who are 10.5-point road underdogs.
-West Va. QB Garrett Greene and starting OT Wyatt Milum are ‘doubtful’ at Arizona. After posting a 16/4 TD-INT ratio and rushing for 772 yards and 13 TDs in 2023, Greene has a 9/8 TD-INT ratio and three rushing TDs this year.
-I explained why I’m backing the Cincinnati Bearcats (+7 at -120 juice buying the half-point tonight at Colorado) in this clip from Friday’s Chris Vernon Show on the Grind City Media YouTube channel.
–Here’s why I’m on Miami’s Team Total to go ‘over’ 37.5 points tonight vs. FSU.
-As of Saturday morning, DraftKings had Georgia listed as an 18-point favorite vs. Florida a week from today in Jacksonville. DK has Ole Miss as a 9.5-point favorite at Arkansas, while Texas A&M is -4 at South Carolina.
-I’ll be joining Chris Lee on the Southeastern 16 YouTube channel at 10:30 p.m. Eastern tonight for a 30-45 minute SEC Reaction pod. I’ll also be joining Wes Reynolds on VSIN this afternoon at 1:30 p.m. Eastern.
**Oklahoma at Ole Miss**
-As of Tuesday night, most books had Ole Miss (5-2 straight up, 5-2 against the spread) installed as a 20-point home favorite with a total of 49. The Sooners were in the +700 to +900 (Westgate SuperBook) range to win outright. By early Saturday morning, the Rebels were -19 at most shops.
-Oklahoma (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) has dropped back-to-back games and three of its last four both SU and ATS, including last week’s 35-9 home loss to South Carolina as a one-point underdog. The Sooners coughed up four turnovers, fell behind 21-0 in the first quarter and trailed 32-3 at halftime.
-OU true freshman QB Michael Hawkins was given the hook after throwing a pair of first-quarter interceptions. He was replaced by sophomore Jackson Arnold, who was the team’s starter earlier in the year before being benched in a 25-15 home loss to Tennessee. Arnold connected on 18-of-36 passes for 225 yards and one TD without an interception.
-Arnold has played in five of OU’s seven games, completing 79-of-138 throws (57.2%) for 763 yards with an 8/3 TD-INT ratio. However, four of those TD passes came in a 51-3 win over Temple.
-Oklahoma has been a road underdog during Brent Venables’ three-year tenure only once, winning 27-21 at Auburn as a two-point ‘dog in Week 5.
-OU’s five best WRs are ‘out’ yet again Saturday in Oxford, including Deion Burks, who is arguably the Sooners’ best wideout and was downgraded from ‘questionable’ to ‘out’ on Friday. RB Gavin Sawchuk, who led the team in rushing yards (744), rushing TDs (nine) and yards-per-carry average (6.2 YPC) in 2023, has also been ruled ‘out.’
-Lane Kiffin’s team has had two weeks to shake off a gut-wrenching loss at LSU and prepare for OU. Ole Miss never trailed in the overtime loss in Redstick until the Tigers scored the game-winning points in walk-off fashion. They won 29-26 over the Rebels as four-point home underdogs.
-Ole Miss is back at home for the first time since taking a 20-17 loss vs. Kentucky on Sept. 28. The Rebels are 3-1 both SU and ATS in four home games this year, and they’re 12-11-1 ATS in 34 games as home favorite during Kiffin’s five-year tenure.
-Ole Miss RB2 Matt Jones is listed as ‘out,’ and WR Tre Harris and OG Jeremy James are both ‘questionable.’ In seven games this year, Harris has 59 catches for 987 yards and six TDs. He’s the nation’s leader in receiving yards and is fourth in receptions.
-Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart has completed 70.2 percent of his passes for 2,384 yards with a 14/3 TD-INT ratio. He’s added 183 rushing yards, three TDs and a 3.1 YPC average.
-The ‘under’ is 6-1 overall for Ole Miss after cashing in six straight games, but this is the lowest total the Rebels have seen this season. The previous low was 51.5 in the 20-17 home loss vs. UK.
-The ‘under’ is 4-3 overall for the Sooners, but the ‘over’ cashed in their lone road assignment when they won a 27-21 decision at Auburn that saw the 48 combined points go ‘over’ the 41-point total thanks to a 63-yard pick-six by Kip Lewis with 4:01 remaining.
-ESPN will provide television coverage at noon Eastern.
**Arkansas at Mississippi St.**
-As of early Thursday afternoon, most betting shops had Arkansas (4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS) listed as a 6.5-point road favorite with a total of 58.5. The Bulldogs were anywhere from +185 to +200 on the ML. But on Saturday morning, most spots had the Razorbacks at -7 with the total adjusted down to 55.5 or 56 points.
-Arkansas is in its first road ‘chalk’ role since losing 29-27 at Missouri as a 3.5-point favorite in the 2022 regular-season finale. The Razorbacks are 1-2-1 ATS in four such spots during Sam Pittman’s five-year tenure.
-Arkansas is 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS in a pair of road games this year. The Hogs won 24-14 at Auburn and lost 39-31 in double overtime at Oklahoma St. as 10-point underdogs.
-Arkansas star RB Ja’Quinden Jackson is ‘out’ after sustaining a lower-body injury in last week’s 34-10 home loss vs. LSU. In seven games, Jackson has produced 592 rushing yards, 10 TDs and a 5.7 YPC average. He also has 11 catches for 125 yards. RB Rodney Hill (15 carries, 78 yards, one TD and a 5.2 YPC average) is listed as ‘questionable.’
-Mississippi St. (1-6 SU, 4-3 ATS) has lost six games in a row, but things aren’t nearly as dire as that slide seemingly suggests. The Bulldogs have covered the number in three straight games by 49 combined points.
-MSU true freshman QB Michael Van Buren has exceeded expectations in his first three starts. In a 35-13 loss at Texas (when the Longhorns had just a 7-6 lead with less than a minute remaining in the first half and were only ahead 14-6 with less than a minute left in the third quarter as 37-point home favorites), he completed 12-of-23 throws for 144 yards with zero interceptions and one rushing TD. In a 41-31 loss at UGA, Van Buren connected on 20-of-37 passes for 306 yards with a 3/1 TD-INT ratio. He had 242 passing yards for three TDs compared to only one pick in last week’s 34-24 home loss vs. Texas A&M.
-Mississippi St. has won back-to-back games in this rivalry, five of the last seven and seven of the last 10. The Bulldogs are on a 3-0 and 5-1 ATS runs in the most recent head-to-head encounters, including last year’s 7-3 win in Fayetteville and a 40-17 victory as 9.5-point home ‘chalk’ in 2022.
-MSU WR Mario Craver, WR Creed Whittemore, RB Keyvone Lee and DE De’Monte Russell are ‘out.’ Craver has 16 receptions for 355 yards and three TDs, and Whittemore has four catches for 65 yards in four contests. Lee has 140 rushing yards, one TD and a 4.8 YPC average.
-The ‘over’ is 5-2 overall for the Bulldogs, 4-0 in their home outings.
-The ‘under’ has hit in four consecutive games for the Razorbacks to improve to 4-3 overall. Their totals have been a wash in a pair of road contests.
-The SEC Network will have the broadcast from Starkville at 12:45 p.m. Eastern.
**Missouri at Alabama**
-As of early Friday afternoon, most shops had Alabama (5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS) installed as a 17.5-point home favorite with a total of 50.5. The Tigers were +600 on the money line. This line was only -14 early in the week until news broke that Missouri RB Nate Noel and QB Brady Cook weren’t practicing. However, ESPN’s Pete Thamel reported late Friday that there’s optimism that Cook might be able to play on his injured ankle. He was upgraded from ‘doubtful’ to ‘questionable.’ As of Saturday morning, most books had moved Alabama down to -15.5 or -16, with the total bumped up to 51 or 51.5 points. Mizzou was +500 to +550 on the money line.
-Missouri (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) will be without Noel, its leading rusher, today at Bryant-Denny Stadium. In six games this year, the transfer from Appalachian St. has 503 rushing yards, two TDs and a 5.9 YPC average. Look for Marcus Carroll to have increased carries. The Ga. St. transfer has run for 321 yards and six TDs, averaging 4.9 YPC.
-Cook left last week’s home game vs. Auburn with an ankle injury in the first quarter. He actually left the venue to go to a nearby hospital to get an MRI, only to return and go back in the game late in the third quarter. Cook led a pair of fourth-quarter TD drives, as Mizzou outscored Auburn 15-0 in the final stanza to pull out a 21-17 win thanks to a four-yard TD run from Jamal Roberts with 46 seconds remaining.
-For the season, Cook has connected on 63.1 percent of his throws for 1,545 yards with a 7/1 TD-INT ratio. He also has 117 rushing yards and four TDs.
-Missouri HC Eli Drinkwitz has compiled a 7-7 spread record in 14 games as a road underdog during his five-year tenure. However, Mizzou is 5-2 ATS in its last seven such roles.
-In addition to Noel, Missouri WR Mookie Cooper is ‘out,’ but there’s also been a lot of good news on the injury front for the Tigers in the last 24 hours. Starting TE Brett Norfleet and starting OT Cayden Green were ‘questionable’ along with four different safeties, including both starters. However, all four safeties, Norfleet and Green were upgraded to ‘probable’ on Friday. Cooper has 12 receptions for 235 yards, while Norfleet has 13 catches for 106 yards and one TD.
-The sky is falling for the Crimson Tide faithful in Tuscaloosa, where Alabama has posted a 4-0 SU record and a 2-2 ATS mark in four games.
-Kalen DeBoer’s squad is off a 24-17 loss at Tennessee as a 3.5-point road favorite. Since a 41-34 home win over UGA on Sept. 28, Alabama has lost two of three games outright, going 0-3 ATS with the lone win coming in a 27-25 triumph over South Carolina as a 21-point home ‘chalk’ two weeks ago.
-Alabama star QB Jalen Milroe has thrown four interceptions in the last two games and has a 3/5 TD-INT ration in his team’s last three contests. For the season, Milroe has completed 68.4 percent of his passes for 1,722 yards with a 13/6 TD-INT ratio. He has 330 rushing yards, 11 TDs and a 3.6 YPC average.
-The ‘over’ is 5-2 overall for the Tide, 3-1 in its four home games.
-The ‘under’ is 5-2 overall for Missouri, 1-1 in its two road assignments.
-Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC.
**Texas at Vanderbilt**
-As of early Friday, most books had Texas (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) listed as an 18.5-point favorite with a total of 51.5. The Commodores were +650 on the money line. By early Saturday morning, though, the Longhorns were down to -17.5 at most shops. Most spots had the total at 51 points, but there were still a few shops at 51.5. The ‘Dores were +550 to +600 on the money line.
-Texas safety Andrew Mukuba and WR Isaiah Bond have been ruled ‘out’ with injuries. Bond has 23 catches that have produced team-highs in receiving yards (380) and TD receptions (four), and Mukuba is the team’s sixth-leading tackler with 25 stops, two passes broken up and a pair of interceptions.
-Vanderbilt (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS) is on a three-game winning streak, including home wins over Alabama (40-35) and Ball St. (24-14) and a 20-13 victory at Kentucky.
-Clark Lea’s team has been a double-digit underdog four times this year, compiling a 4-0 spread record with three outright wins. The lone defeat came in a 20-17 overtime setback at Missouri. The Commodores own outright wins at Kentucky, vs. Alabama and vs. Va. Tech.
-New Mexico St. transfer QB Diego Pavia has been the catalyst for Vandy’s breakout campaign. Pavia has completed 66.2 percent of his passes for 1,391 yards with an 11/1 TD-INT ratio. He also has a team-high 470 rushing yards, three TDs and a 4.0 YPC average.
-Vandy leads the SEC in turnover margin (+6).
-Vandy had six key players listed as ‘questionable’ on Wednesday’s injury report, including RB Sedrick Alexander, RB AJ Newberry, LB Langston Patterson, CB Martel Hight, EDGE Miles Capers and TE Eli Stowers. However, all six of those players were upgraded to ‘probable’ on Thursday.
-Like Pavia, Stowers is a transfer from New Mexico St. who came to Vandy along with the Aggies’ former HC Jerry Kill and OC Tim Beck. Stowers leads the ‘Dores in receptions (33), receiving yards (463) and TD catches (two).
-Texas is ranked #1 in the country in both total defense and scoring ‘D’ (9.7 PPG), #2 against the pass and #21 versus the run. The Longhorns are ranked #14 nationally in total offense, #15 in passing yards and #14 in scoring with their 39.1 PPG average.
-Texas has only played one true road game this season, winning 31-12 at Michigan as a 6.5-point favorite. The Longhorns are 6-5 ATS in 11 road ‘chalk’ roles on Steve Sarkisian’s watch.
-The ‘under’ has cashed in three straight games for Texas to improve to 4-3 overall. The Longhorns’ lone road game saw the ‘over’ cash when the 43 combined points went North of the 42-point tally at The Big House in Week 2.
-The ‘over’ hit in Vandy’s first five games, but the ‘under’ has now been a winner in back-to-back contests.
-SEC Network 4:15 p.m. Eastern.
PREDICTION: I got Vandy +19 early in the week for 1.5 units. I sprinkled 0.25 units on the ‘Dores at +620 on the money line (I still like Vandy at +17.5 or +18.).
**LSU at Texas A&M**
-As of early Friday, most spots had Texas A&M (6-1 SU, 2-5 ATS) installed as a one-point favorite with a total of 54.5. The Aggies had been favored by 2.5 points for most of the week until the line moved 1.5 points early Thursday afternoon.
-LSU (6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS) has been a road underdog only twice during Brian Kelly’s three-year reign, going 1-1 both SU and ATS with a 45-35 win at Florida in 2022.
-LSU is 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS in a pair of road assignments. Kelly’s team rallied to win a 36-33 decision at South Carolina and pulled away late for a 34-10 win at Arkansas last week. True freshman RB Caden Durham had 101 rushing yards and three TDs on 21 totes in the win over the Razorbacks.
-LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier has completed 64.7 percent of his passes for 2,222 yards with an 18/6 TD-INT ratio. Durham has 382 rushing yards, six TDs and a 6.2 YPC average in six games. He has 10 catches for 148 yards and two TDs.
-LSU is on a six-game winning streak since dropping its opener to USC by a 27-20 count in Las Vegas. The Tigers are 3-0 in SEC play with wins at South Carolina, vs. Ole Miss (29-26 in overtime) and at Arkansas.
-Texas A&M has ripped off six consecutive wins since losing a 23-13 decision at home vs. Notre Dame in its opener. The Aggies are 4-0 in SEC action, including wins at Florida (33-20), vs. Arkansas (21-17), vs. Missouri (41-10) and at Mississippi St. (34-24).
-Mike Elko’s team went back to Conner Weigman, who missed three games with an injury, as its starting QB in the blowout win over Missouri on Oct. 5. Weigman completed 18-of-22 passes for 276 yards against the Tigers. He wasn’t as effective last Saturday in Starkville, connecting on 15-of-25 throws for 217 yards with one TD and a pair of interceptions.
-Texas A&M RB Le’Veon Moss is second in the SEC in rushing yards (674). He has eight rushing TDs and a 6.4 YPC average.
-These SEC rivals have split the last six head-to-head meetings with the home team winning each time. However, LSU is 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS in the last 10 encounters.
-The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight games for LSU to improve to 5-2 overall.
-The ‘over’ is 4-3 overall for the Aggies after hitting in back-to-back games.
-Kickoff is slated for 7:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC.
PREDICTION: Small opinion here, but I’ve got Texas A&M -1 for 0.5 units.
**Auburn at Kentucky**
-As of early Friday, most books had Kentucky (3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS) listed as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 44. By early Saturday morning, more books had UK at -1 than -1.5.
-Mark Stoops’s squad has lost back-to-back games both SU and ATS, including a 20-13 home loss vs. Vanderbilt and a 48-20 loss at Florida last week.
-Kentucky RB Demie Sumo-Karngbaye is ‘out’ due to an ankle injury. Sumo-Karngaye has 419 rushing yards, four TDs and a 4.6 YPC average. The Wildcats will also be without CB Maxwell Hairston, who was a second-team All-SEC selection in 2023.
-Kentucky QB Brock Vandagriff had gone four games in a row without throwing an interception, but he was picked off twice last week at UF. For the season, Vandagriff has connected on 57.6 percent of his throws with a 6/4 TD-INT ratio.
-UK is 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS in five home games.
-Auburn (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS) has lost four games in a row, going 1-3 ATS, including last week’s 21-17 loss at Missouri as a 3.5-point road underdog.
-Auburn is 2-3 ATS in five games as a road underdog on Hugh Freeze’s watch, going 1-1 ATS in a pair of such spots this year. The Tigers covered in a 31-13 loss at UGA as 21-point ‘dogs and their backers took a tough beat in the 21-17 loss at Mizzou as 3.5-point ‘dogs last week.
-The ‘under’ is 4-3 overall for Auburn, 2-0 in its road contests.
-The ‘under’ is 5-2 overall for UK, 4-1 in its home games.
-The SEC Network will provide the telecast at 7:45 p.m. ET.