I wasn’t that into the betting market for player props until the 2023 football season.
In the NFL that year, I had a lot of success backing ‘overs’ on receiving yards for Philadelphia WR A.J. Brown and Atlanta TE Kyle Pitts. When late October came around, I was still unbeaten taking LSU games to go ‘over’ in college ball.
This was Jayden Daniels’ senior campaign for the Tigers, who ended up with a 12-1 record to the ‘over’ in 2023. At that point, I was a believer and then some in LSU’s offense that also featured future first-round picks at WR in Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabers.
Therefore, I started hammering the player props for Daniels, Thomas and Nabers to go ‘over.’ My profit increased and my interest in player props did as well.
There have been several players that that have been good to me this year, especially Arkansas RB Mike Washington, who has 671 rushing yards, five touchdowns and a 7.0 yards-per-carry average.
The transfer from New Mexico St. has produced 79, 116, 65, 70, 63, 131 and 147 rushing yards in seven games for the Razorbacks. Nevertheless, Washington’s prop for rushing yards each week has been in the mid-to-upper 50s.
Not anymore, though. I’ve seen Washington’s number in the 74.5 to 79.5 range for Saturday’s SEC showdown at home vs. Auburn.
Should the elevated number give us pause this week? Perhaps. Auburn is ranked ninth in the nation in run defense.
However, Texas A&M ran for 207 yards against the Tigers with RB Le’Veon Moss going for 139 rushing yards and one TD on 21 attempts. The Aggies are ranked fifth in the SEC and #30 nationally in rushing offense, but Arkansas is ranked second in the SEC and #14 in the country in rushing offense.
Furthermore, since Bobby Petrino became the Hogs’ interim head coach (I’m aware he’s been calling the plays all season), Washington has been given season-highs in carries with 19 and 16 in the last two weeks.
On my first glance at last week’s box score when Arkansas took a 3-0 lead on Texas A&M, it displayed that Washington went ‘over’ with 71 rushing yards on the Hogs’ first drive of the game.
PREDICTION: Let’s risk 1.15 units to win one unit on Washington ‘over’ 74.5 rushing yards (Hard Rock and Bet365).
We’ve also had plenty of success with Arkansas QB Taylen Green’s prop for rushing yards to go ‘over.’ We did lose once when he took a nine-yard sack on his last rushing attempt in a 32-31 loss at Memphis last month.
We’re still 4-1 betting Green’s prop to go ‘over’ in the Hogs’ last five outings. He has produced 151, 115, 53, 81, 63 and 85 rushing yards in the last six contests.
Green has 589 rushing yards, five TDs and a 7.1 YPC average this year.
PREDICTION: Let’s risk 1.15 units to win one on Green to go ‘over’ 55.5 rushing yards (Hard Rock and Bet365).
Let’s move to Baylor at Cincinnati and highlight the spectacular season that UC signal caller Brendan Sorsby is enjoying through seven games. He has completed 65.4 percent of his passes for 1,718 yards with a 17/1 TD-INT ratio.
Sorsby has added 340 rushing yards and six TDs, averaging 5.9 YPC. He’s produced 96, 40, 39, 52, 64, 36 and 13 rushing yards to date, but the 39 and 13 numbers came in blowout wins when he was looking to stay healthy and out of harm’s way.
Sorsby had 39 rushing yards on just two attempts in a 70-0 home win over Northwestern St. He had only 13 yards on six carries in last week’s 49-17 win at Oklahoma St.
When we take a college QB’s rushing yards prop ‘over,’ you have to be worried about negative yards on sacks (sacks don’t impact the number for NFL signal callers), but Baylor is tied for last in the Big 12 and is ranked #121 nationally out of 136 FBS teams in sacks with only eight.
The Bears have given up 137 rushing yards to Auburn’s Jackson Arnold, 62 to Arizona St.’s Sam Leavitt and 72 to Kansas St.’s Avery Johnson.
PREDICTION: We expect Sorsby to use his legs a lot more Saturday in what should be a close game (the Bearcats were favored by 3.5 at most shops late Wednesday afternoon). Let’s put 1.15 units at risk to win one unit on Sorsby to go ‘over’ 33.5 rushing yards (BetMGM). I’ve seen other numbers all the way up to 37.5, but I would like it into the low 40s.
Vandy QB Diego Pavia has 438 rushing yards, four TDs and a 5.7 YPC average in seven games. For his career, he now has 2,674 career rushing yards, 25 TDs and a 5.7 YPC average.
Pavia has produced 44, 61, 24, 86, 79, 58 and 86 rushing yards this season. In the lone one-possession game the Commodores have played this year, he had a season-high 17 attempts to match his season-best 86 rushing yards in last week’s 31-24 win over LSU. As of late Thursday afternoon, Vandy was a 2.5-point favorite vs. Missouri.
Again, our thinking is more rushing attempts for Pavia in a tight game.
PREDICTION: Let’s risk 1.14 units to win one unit on Pavia to go ‘over’ 53.5 rushing yards (FanDuel).
Finally, let’s look at Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed Saturday at LSU. Less than 15 minutes before the Aggies were set to host Florida two weeks ago, I was wagering on a few props for Florida WR Dallas Wilson.
While looking for Wilson’s numbers, I noticed that Reed was only 29.5 for rushing yards. Before even investigating his stats, I threw a little action on Reed to go ‘over’ and he produced 37 rushing yards and one TD on seven carries.
It was a similar situation last week. I was simply looking to make my weekly bets on Washington and Green for Arkansas when I noticed Reed was at 32.5. I jumped on it again and he delivered with 55 rushing yards on six attempts.
Reed has 241 rushing yards, four TDs and a 4.7 YPC average. He’s put up at least 37 rushing yards in five of the Aggies’ seven games.
PREDICTION: Give me one unit (risking 1.15) on Reed to go ‘over’ 30.5 rushing yards (Hard Rock and Bet365). I’ve seen this number in the 30.5 to 33.5 range, but I would like it up to 37.5.
I’ll also mention that I’ve enjoyed success backing Haynes King in a similar fashion, but I’m passing on that this week since Ga. Tech is a 17-point home favorite vs. Syracuse.
The guess here is that Brent Key (and King) are going to try to give his body a week off from the usual wear and tear of a close game. In the Yellow Jackets’ four one-possession games this season, King has produced 156, 103, 106 and 120 rushing yards.
In the two contests decided by double-digit margins, King had only 15 and 60 yards and had his lowest amount of carries as well (eight and 14). His number this week is in the 70.5 to 78.5 range.
To be clear, I’m not against an ‘over’ play on King, but I’m going to skip it against The ‘Cuse.