As of late Thursday afternoon, most books had Texas (9-1 straight up, 6-4 against the spread) installed as a 20.5-point favorite for its home finale Saturday vs. Kentucky. The total was 47 points, while the Wildcats were +900 on the money line.
The Longhorns are mired in a 1-3 ATS slump and are in a vintage look-ahead situation with a trip to Texas A&M on deck next weekend. The Aggies and ‘Horns haven’t collided since 2011, one year before A&M left the Big 12 to join the Southeastern Conference.
Kentucky (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS) is 3-0 ATS with one outright win in three games as a double-digit underdog this season. The Wildcats have covered in those three games by a combined 47 points.
In Week 3, Mark Stoops’s team led Georgia for more than three quarters before dropping a 13-12 decision as a 22-point home underdog. UK had a 23-12 advantage in first downs, a 284-262 edge in total yards and controlled time of possession by a healthy margin (35:02 to 24:58), only to come up short against the Bulldogs.
Two weeks later, Kentucky went into Oxford to face undefeated Ole Miss as a 15-point road underdog, although gamblers could’ve had the ‘Cats at +17 earlier in the week. UK slowed down the Rebels’ high-octane offense and dominated time of possession in a 20-17 win.
Stoops’s bunch had a 22-14 advantage in first downs and controlled the ball for 39:43 compared to 20:17. Ole Miss missed a potential tying field goal in the final seconds.
Kentucky went to Neyland Stadium with four of its five best defensive players sidelined by injuries on Nov. 2 as a 17.5-point road underdog. Nevertheless, the ‘Cats took a 10-7 lead into halftime.
After the Volunteers scored a pair of third-quarter touchdowns to take a 21-10 lead, UK answered with a 32-yard TD pass from Gavin Wimsatt to Jeremy Maclin. The subsequent two-point conversion trimmed the UT lead to 21-18 with 13:31 left.
The Vols extended their lead to 28-18 with 4:55 remaining and held on to win by 10, but Kentucky backers made out with a comfortable spread cover.
After the loss in Knoxville, Kentucky had an open date to get healthy. Junior CB Maxwell Hairston, who was a second-team All-SEC selection in 2023 when he produced 67 tackles, six passes broken up, five interceptions and 1.5 tackles for loss, was back in the lineup last week for a 48-6 home win over Murray St. after missing five games in a row due to a shoulder injury.
When Wednesday’s initial injury report came out, UK got more good news. The team’s leading tackler LB Jamon Dumas-Johnson, who had 13 stops in the loss to the Vols, wasn’t listed on the report after missing the win over Murray St.
Also, veteran EDGE rusher DE J.J. Weaver was marked as ‘probable’ after missing back-to-back games.
Kentucky hasn’t missed the postseason since 2015, so this team knows it has to win its next two games to keep its season alive. Therefore, motivation isn’t a question for the Wildcats in this spot.
UK has lost by more than 14 points only twice this year. The ‘Cats lost 31-6 at home to South Carolina and were beaten 48-20 at Florida, but the Gamecocks and Gators both got pick-sixes late in the fourth quarter to pad those margins of victory.
PREDICTION: Let’s buy the half-point from +20.5 to +21 to get to the key number and go with Kentucky +21 for one unit.