Circa had Iowa’s season win total at eight flat (-110 either way) last week, but the book now has -125 juice toward the ‘over’ with ‘under’ supporters getting a +105 return.
FanDuel had the Hawkeyes’ number at 7.5 last month, albeit shaded to the ‘over’ at a -162 price (‘under’ +132). However, the betting shop has moved Iowa’s total to 8.5 (‘under’ -188, ‘over’ +152). As for DraftKings, it has the Hawkeyes at eight (‘over’ -130, ‘under’ +110).
Kerk Ferentz’s team went 10-4 straight up and 6-7-1 against the spread in 2023, but all 10 wins came in the regular season. We point that out since only regular-season games count toward season win totals.
Iowa won 10 games despite losing its starting quarterback Cade McNamara to a season-ending injury in its fifth game. In the next nine games, the Hawkeyes got atrocious QB play from Deacon Hill, who completed only 48.6 percent of his passes for 1,152 yards with a 5/8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. (Hill is now at Utah Tech playing FCS ball where he belongs.)
The offense was absolutely abysmal, averaging 15.4 points per game. That resulted in the belated dismissal of offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz, the son of the head coach.
Fittingly, the Hawkeyes scored zero points in the last two games of Brian’s tenure, a 26-0 loss to Michigan at the Big Ten Championship Game and a 35-0 loss to Tennessee at the Citrus Bowl.
Ferentz has hired Tim Lester, the former HC at Western Michigan, as his new OC to replace his son. Meanwhile, Phil Parker is back for his 13th season as DC.
Iowa was elite – per usual – on the defensive side of the ball last year, giving up an average of only 14.8 PPG despite getting nothing in the way of production out of the offense.
Phil Steele’s National Unit Rankings have Iowa #47 at the QB position, #39 at RB, #41 on the offensive line, #13 on the d-line, #1 at linebacker, #5 in the secondary and #10 on special teams.
Iowa has 10 starters back on offense and eight on defense.
The Hawkeyes return their top four tacklers and seven of their top eight. Steele’s magazine has LB Jay Higgins as a preseason first-team All-American, center Logan Jones as a preseason third-team All-American and LB Nick Jackson as a preseason fourth-team All-American.
Higgins led the nation in tackles last year with 171 stops. He also recorded five tackles for loss, four passes broken up, four QB hurries, two fumble recoveries, two sacks, one forced fumble and one interception. Higgins garnered first-team All-Big-Ten honors and was a second-team All-American.
Jackson also had a banner 2023 campaign after transferring to Iowa from Virginia. He had started 33 times in 46 games at UVA from 2019-22. In fact, Jackson led the ACC in tackles in 2021 (117) and ranks 13th in ACC history with 354 career tackles.
He added 110 tackles to his career total with the Hawkeyes last year on his way to earning second-team All-Big-Ten honors. Jackson finished the year with eight TFL’s, seven QB hurries, four sacks, four PBU and two forced fumbles. He’s a preseason first-team All-Big-Ten pick in Steele’s magazine.
Senior DB Sebastian Castro garnered second-team All-Big-Ten honors and was a third-team All-American last year. He contributed 67 tackles, eight TFL’s, eight PBU, three interceptions for 36 return yards and one touchdown, one sack, one QB hurry and one forced fumble.
Steele’s magazine has Castro as a preseason second-team All-Big-Ten choice and also recognizes DTs Yahya Black and Deontae Craig as preseason third-team All-Big-Ten selections. As a fourth-year junior in 2023, Black produced 51 tackles, five TFL’s, five PBU, 3.5 sacks, two QB hurries and one PBU. Craig recorded 54 tackles, seven QB hurries, five TFL’s, three sacks and one PBU.
Iowa’s offensive line returns all five starters and has 158 career starts under its belt. Jones is a preseason first-team All-Big-Ten pick at center. OT Mason Richman made Steele’s preseason second-team, followed by OG Nick DeJong as a third-team selection and OG Connor Colby as a fourth-teamer.
The Hawkeyes have their top four RBs returning led by Leshon Williams, who had 821 rushing yards, one TD and a 4.8 yards-per-carry average last season. Kaleb Johnson ran for 779 yards and six TDs while averaging 5.2 YPC as a freshman in 2022. He had 463 rushing yards, three TDs and a 4.0 YPC average last year.
Although Iowa lost the two-time Ray Guy Award winner in punter Tory Taylor, who was drafted in the fourth round by the Chicago Bears in the 2024 NFL Draft, Ferentz and his staff feel good about another Australian import at punter in Rhys Dakin, who enrolled early in January.
The Hawkeyes also lost an elite punt returner and first-team All-American CB in Cooper DeJean, who was an early second-round pick to the Philadelphia Eagles. Nevertheless, they feel good about his replacement Kaden Wetjen, who averaged 9.0 yards on seven punt returns in 2023.
Steele’s magazine has junior kicker Drew Stevens as a preseason third-team All-Big-Ten selection. Stevens was a second-team All-Big-Ten pick in 2022 when he made all 24 of his extra points and buried 16-of-18 field-goal attempts. He made 18-of-26 FGAs last year, including a season-long 53-yarder.
If we discount the 2020 COVID campaign (when the Hawkeyes went 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS), Iowa has won at least eight games during the regular season in six of the last eight years.
Even though Ferentz’s team isn’t in the weaker Big Ten West division anymore, the schedule works great in 2024. Iowa doesn’t have to play Oregon, Penn St., Michigan or USC. In fact, the Hawkeyes only definitive game as underdogs will be at Ohio St. on Oct. 5 when they have two weeks to prepare.
All three of Iowa’s non-conference games are at Kinnick Stadium, where it’ll host Illinois St., Iowa St. and Troy. The Trojans aren’t going to be nearly as strong as they’ve been the last two seasons, and the Hawkeyes are 7-1 SU and 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight head-to-head meetings with the Cyclones since 2015.
There’s a chance Iowa could be favored in 10 or 11 games. Of the four new Big Ten schools out West, the one you’d prefer to play on the road this year is certainly UCLA, and that’s what the Hawkeyes do on Nov. 9. They get two weeks to prepare for a Nov. 23 game at Maryland when the Terrapins play at Oregon on Nov. 9 and host Rutgers on Nov. 16.
PREDICTION: Like any ‘over’ wager, injuries are always a concern. Barring a rash of injuries, though, I think Iowa wins at least nine games, but my actual prediction is for a 10-2 record. Therefore, I’m endorsing Iowa ‘over’ eight wins at a -125 price (at Circa), risking 1.25 units to win one. I’m also going to play ‘over’ 8.5 wins for one-half unit at +152 odds (FanDuel).
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
-Iowa has 48 lettermen returning and lost only 18.
-According to the 247Sports Composite, Iowa had the nation’s #50 overall recruiting class that finished 15th among Big Ten schools. The Hawkeyes were ranked #130 in terms of transfer-specific imports. They brought in four transfers with two of those coming from Power-Four programs. The entire class had 25 commits, including six four-star prospects.
-Iowa won five out of six one-possession games in 2023.
-Iowa reaching 10 wins last year is surprising enough based on its putrid 15.4 PPG average. However, it’s even more shocking when you consider that the Hawkeyes were -7 in turnover margin and -671 in net yards for the entire 2023 campaign.
-FanDuel has Iowa with +590 odds to make the College Football Playoff. The Hawkeyes have 40/1 odds to win the Big Ten and 250/1 odds to win the CFP.
-FanDuel has Iowa installed as a 23.5-point home favorite (at a -115 price) in its opener at home vs. Illinois St., which is +1400 on the money line. The total is 42.5 points.
-FanDuel has Iowa listed as a 2.5-point home favorite (at a -120 price) for its Week 2 home game vs. Iowa St. The Hawkeyes are -140 on the money line, and the total is 37.5 points. The ‘under’ has cashed at a 17-2 clip in the last 19 games for the Cy-Hawk Trophy!
-Circa’s Games of the Year have Iowa -2.5 vs. Iowa St., -6 vs. Washington and -3 vs. Wisconsin.
-DraftKings has Iowa as a 24-point road underdog at Ohio St.