As of Friday morning, most books had Alabama (8-1 straight up, 6-2-1 against the spread) installed as a six-point home favorite for Saturday’s SEC showdown vs. Oklahoma at Bryant-Denny Stadium. The total was in the 45.5 to 46.5 range, while the Sooners were +190 on the money line.
For first-half wagers, the Crimson Tide were listed as a 3.5-point ‘chalk.’ They were -0.5 points or -1.5 (for a +105 payout) in the first quarter. FanDuel had Alabama with a Team Total of 26.5 points (-114 either way), and OU’s Team Total was 19.5 (‘over’ -128, ‘under’ -104).
Alabama is 5-0 both SU and ATS in five home games this year to improve to 12-0 SU and 10-2 ATS at home during Kalen DeBoer’s tenure. Ten of those 12 home wins have been by margins of 11 points or more and nine have been by at least 14 points.
Since losing at FSU in Week 1, ‘Bama has won eight games in a row, including road scalps at Georgia (24-21) and at Missouri (27-24), in addition to home wins over Tennessee (37-20), Vandy (30-14) and LSU (20-9).
Bama QB Ty Simpson has completed 66.9 percent of his passes for 2,461 yards with a 21/1 TD-INT ratio through nine games. He’s making clutch plays and avoiding mistakes despite getting minimal support from the running game.
Alabama’s defense is ranked #10 in the nation versus the pass, #14 in scoring ‘D’ (17.2 points per game) and #16 in total defense.
Perhaps most important, Alabama is in big-time revenge mode here after getting run out of Norman by a 24-3 count as a 14-point road favorite last season. The loss took the Tide out of the hunt for a berth in the College Football Playoff.
Oklahoma (7-2 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) is 3-0 both SU and ATS in three road games this year. The Sooners have excellent defensive stats on the season, but they’ve only played two elite offenses.
In a home game vs. Ole Miss, the Rebels scored 34 points (despite settling for four field goals) and produced 21 first downs and 431 yards of offense. Tennessee had 28 first downs and 456 yards of total offense, but the Vols coughed up three turnovers (including a scoop-and-score TD for OU) in a 33-27 home loss.
In four games since undergoing surgery for a broken bone on his throwing hand, QB John Mateer has thrown only two TD passes compared to four interceptions. He’s produced 202, 150, 223 and 159 passing yards in those four outings.
PREDICTION: Let’s go with 2.2 units of risk to win two units on Alabama -5.5 (FanDuel). Furthermore, let’s risk 0.65 units to win 0.5 units on the Tide -3.5 in the first half.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
–Let’s put 2.2 units on the line to win two units on LSU at Arkansas to go ‘over’ 57.5 points. The ‘over’ is 7-2 overall for the Razorbacks, but both ‘unders’ would’ve gone North of this total with combined scores of 59 and 65 points. Bobby Petrino’s team has produced average combined scores of 68.7 points per game. Although LSU’s offense is struggling, the Arkansas defense is just what the doctor ordered to get this unit humming. The Hogs are ranked #108 out of 136 FBS teams versus the pass, #117 against the run, #123 in total defense and #124 in scoring ‘D’ (33.3 PPG). As for the Arkansas offense, it is ranked #18 nationally in rushing yards, #26 in passing yards, #8 in total offense and #22 ion scoring with its 35.4 PPG average.
-As of Friday morning, most books had moved Ole Miss to an 11.5-point home favorite Saturday night vs. Florida. The Rebels were -15.5 early Wednesday afternoon. Lane Kiffin’s postgame presser in Oxford on Saturday should be interesting.
-Texas A&M WR Mario Craver was listed as ‘questionable’ on Thursday night’s updated SEC Availability
Report ahead of Saturday’s home game vs. South Carolina. In nine games for the unbeaten Aggies, Craver has 46 catches for 775 yards and four TDs. He’s added 82 rushing yards and one TD on nine attempts for a 9.1 yards-per-carry average.
-For my opinions on all of the SEC action this weekend, check out my Bets & Ballgames podcast with Jay Greeson for Southeastern 16.