As of Thursday morning, most books had Missouri (2-0 straight up, 2-0 against the spread) installed as a 27 or 27.5-point home favorite Saturday vs. Louisiana. The total was 47 or 47 points.
Most spots had the Tigers’ Team Total set at 37.5 points.
FanDuel’s updated numbers have Eli Drinkwitz’s squad with 45/1 odds to win the SEC Championship Game, 100/1 odds to win the College Football Playoff and an adjusted season win total of 7.5 (‘over’ -122, ‘under’ 108).
Missouri is on a 12-game home winning streak and has won 18 of its last 19 games at Faurot Field. The lone defeat came in 2023 to LSU when Jayden Daniels orchestrated a comeback victory late in the fourth quarter.
Missouri’s offense is humming through two games with Penn St. transfer quarterback Beau Pribula, who completed 30-of-39 passes for 334 yards and three touchdowns without an interception in this past Saturday’s 42-31 win over Kansas. The Tigers had enormous advantages over the Jayhawks in total yards (595-226), first downs (28-13) and time of possession (40:27-19:33).
RB Jamal Roberts had 143 rushing yards and one TD, while RB Ahmad Hardy produced 112 rushing yards and one TD on 25 attempts. Mississippi St. transfer WR Kevin Coleman had 10 receptions for 126 yards and one TD, and TE Brett Norfleet had seven catches for 76 yards and two TDs.
In Week 1, Mizzou led Central Arkansas 26-0 at halftime, 40-0 going into the fourth quarter and coasted to a 61-6 win. Pribula connected on 23-of-28 throws for 283 yards and two TDs without an interception, in addition to rushing for 65 yards and two TDs on 10 attempts.
Hardy, the transfer from ULM who was a first-team All-Sun Belt selection as a true freshman in 2024, had 100 rushing yards and one TD on 10 carries. WR Marquis Johnson caught five balls for 134 yards and one TD.
Louisiana is without its starting QB Walker Howard, a former four-star recruit out of high school to LSU who transferred to Ole Miss before landing with the Ragin’ Cajuns. Howard suffered an oblique injury in Week 1 that has him sidelined indefinitely.
Without Howard, Louisiana managed only 86 passing yards in last week’s 34-10 home win over McNeese. We should note that Louisiana saw its lead cut to 17-10 early in the third quarter and didn’t extend its advantage to two possessions until getting a 37-yard field goal with 10:41 remaining.
With 3:48 left, the Ragin’ Cajuns got a TD run to make it 27-10, and they added another score to get to 34 with 1:39 remaining.
In Louisiana’s most recent games against Power-Four competition since 2021, it has given up 38 points at Texas, 49 points at FSU, 35 points at Minnesota, 38 points at Wake Forest and 34 points vs. TCU in last year’s bowl game. However, that was a 34-3 loss in which the Horned Frogs led 27-0 at halftime, 34-0 with 9:26 left in the third quarter and hit the brakes offensively the rest of the way in a blowout.
We’ll also add in that Tulane, a high-quality G5 program, won a 41-33 decision in Lafayette last season.
Yes, I think Drinkwitz’s offense scores at least 38 points Saturday at home, but I’m thinking 45 to 52 points seems more likely.
PREDICTION: I’ll risk 2.16 units to win two units on Mizzou to go ‘over’ its Team Total of 37.5 points (-108 price at DraftKings) vs. Louisiana.