As of late Friday morning, most books had Auburn (2-1 straight up, 1-2 against the spread) listed as a 2.5-point home favorite for Saturday’s SEC showdown vs. Arkansas. The total was 56 points, and the Razorbacks were +120 on the money line.
The ‘over’ has hit in five straight games in this rivalry and is 9-1 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings. Those nine ‘overs’ have had combined scores of 58, 68, 61, 58, 61, 72, 59, 100 and 66 points.
The ‘over’ is 3-0 for Arkansas (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) with its combined scores producing 70, 70 and 64 points. The Razorbacks are going to be without two starters in the secondary, as CB Jaylon Braxton (knee) and safety Hudson Clark (back) are ‘out’ for a second straight week.
Clark had 51 tackles 4.5 tackles for loss, four passes broken up, one QB hurry, one interception and 0.5 sacks in 2023, while Braxton recorded 20 tackles, eight PBU, one interception, one forced fumble, one fumble recovery and one scoop-and-score TD.
Without Clark and Braxton in uniform last week, UAB quarterback Jacob Zeno completed 23-of-32 passes for 235 yards and three touchdowns. The Blazers jumped out to a 17-3 lead on Zeno’s 34-yard TD pass to Amare Thomas with 14:51 left in the second quarter.
Bobby Petrino’s Arkansas offense is ranked fifth in the nation in total yards, 12th in passing yards, 11th in rushing yards and 10th in scoring with its 46.0 points-per-game average. The Hogs are ranked 85th nationally in pass defense and 73rd in scoring ‘D’ (22.0 PPG).
However, the 22.0 PPG average counts a 70-0 season-opening win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, an FCS opponent. The Razorbacks have given up 39 and 27 points against their two FBS foes (33.0 PPG).
The ‘over’ is 2-1 for Auburn with the two ‘over’s producing combined scores of 76 and 64 points. Hugh Freeze made a QB change last week and redshirt freshman Hank Brown made him look good in his first career start.
Brown completed 17-of-25 passes for 235 yards and four TDs without an interception. RB Jarquez Hunter had 152 rushing yards and one TD on 20 attempts in the 45-19 win over New Mexico.
The Lobos moved the ball all night long at Auburn, though. They had 22 first downs, 157 rushing yards and 291 passing yards. UNM missed a field goal, though, and threw two interceptions.
Auburn is ranked #99 in the country in pass defense. That’s not a good sign going against Arkansas QB Taylen Green, who has 806 passing yards and three TDs. He’s also produced 245 rushing yards, four TDs and a 6.0 yards-per-carry average.
Arkansas RB Ja’Quinden Jackson has 397 rushing yards, six TDs and an 8.4 YPC average.
PREDICTION: Arkansas at Auburn ‘OVER’ 56 points for one unit.
*NOTE: This isn’t necessarily an endorsement, but I’ll nonetheless point out that the Razorbacks are 10-3 ATS in 13 games as road underdogs during Sam Pittman’s tenure. I haven’t played the Hogs, but I’d be interested in a live bet on them if Auburn gets out to an early lead and Arkansas becomes available at +7 or better.