Originally published on Friday, 12/26/25, at 11:26 a.m. Eastern.
Updated on Wednesday, 12/31/25, at 9:58 a.m. Eastern.
Vanderbilt (10-2 straight up, 9-2-1 against the spread) and Iowa are poised to collide for the first time ever on New Year’s Eve at the ReliaQuest Bowl at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. Kickoff is scheduled for noon Eastern on ESPN.
As of Friday (12/26), most books had Clark Lea’s team listed as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 47.5. The Hawkeyes were in the +165 to +180 range on the money line.
As of this morning (12/31) two hours before kickoff, most spots had Vandy at -3.5 with the total down to 45.5 points. Iowa was in the +145 to +160 range to win outright. This number has been bouncing between four and 5.5 for most of the last 3-4 days, and it was -5.5 at most shops yesterday.
Vandy has only one opt-out in star TE Eli Stowers, who had 62 catches for 769 yards and four touchdowns in 12 regular-season games. The Commodores are otherwise healthy and were on fire down the stretch.
Vandy has won three games in a row both SU and ATS, including a 45-24 win at Tennessee and a 45-17 home win over Kentucky. The ‘Dores have seven wins by 20 points or more and their only losses of the season came at Alabama and at Texas. They won by margins of seven points or more in all 10 victories.
Vandy QB Diego Pavia will be the best player on the field because he’s been the best player in the nation all year long. He’s completed 71.2 percent of his passes for 3,192 yards with a 27/8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Pavia also has 826 rushing yards, nine TDs and a 5.4 yards-per-carry average.
In Vandy’s last four games, the 2025 SEC Player of the Year accounted for 16 TDs and 1,862 all-purpose yards (1,494 passing yards and 368 rushing yards). He finished second in voting for the Heisman Trophy and won the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award.
Pavia led the SEC in completion percentage, TDs responsible for (36), total yards (4,018), total yards per play, passing efficiency rating (171.5), adjusted passing yards per attempt and passing yards per attempt.
Pavia, who also garnered 2023 Conference USA Player of the Year honors, played his four years of college ball at New Mexico St. and Vandy. Before his arrival at both schools, neither program was exactly considered a gridiron juggernaut.
Nevertheless, Pavia produced incredible career numbers by connecting on 62.1 percent of his throws for 9,908 yards with an 86/27 TD-INT ratio. He also had 3,058 career rushing yards, 30 TDs and a 5.0 YPC average.
Junior RB Sedrick Alexander also enjoyed a breakout campaign, rushing for 560 yards and 11 TDs with a 5.5 YPC average. He had 16 receptions for 181 yards and four TDs.
For those interested in Alexander’s player props, most books have his total for rushing yards at 41.5. He’s around -130 to score an anytime TD, while his odds to go for 2+ TDs is in the +500 neighborhood. Alexander has produced 2+ TDs six times in 12 games, and he has 15 total TDs (11 rushing and four receiving).
RB “MK” Young had 410 rushing yards and six TDs, averaging 9.1 YPC. He added 14 catches for 133 yards.
Even without Stowers, Pavia has plenty of options in the passing game. WR Trent Richardson hauled in 40 receptions for 679 yards and six TDs, while WR Junior Sherrill brought down 46 catches for 661 yards and seven TDs. WR Richie Hoskins made 26 grabs for 305 yards and three TDs, and backup TE Cole Spence has 13 receptions for 202 yards and a pair of TDs.
Iowa (8-4 SU, 8-3-1 ATS) has had an excellent season as well, but it was kept from being elite due to four narrow losses to high-quality opponents, including a 16-13 loss at Iowa St., a 20-15 home defeat vs. top-ranked Indiana, an 18-16 home setback vs. an 11-1 Oregon squad and a 26-21 loss at USC.
As usual, the Hawkeyes have one of country’s best defenses, ranking seventh nationally in total defense, pass defense and scoring ‘D’ (15.2 points per game).
However, they’re ranked #131 in the country in passing yards and #122 in total offense. As always, Iowa wants to run the ball (#46 nationally, 177.8 YPG) and play defense.
Vandy’s defense is ranked #16 nationally against the run. This unit is led by LB Bryan Longwell, who recorded 68 tackles, nine tackles for loss, two passes broken up, one sack and one interception.
PREDICTIONS: I’m going to be heavily involved in the player-prop market for this game, but those numbers weren’t out as of Dec. 26. Therefore, be sure to check back in the coming days for those plays. For now, I’m on Vandy buying the half-point from -4.5 to -4 (-120 price). I’m risking 3.6 units to win three units. I’m also on the Commodores at -2.5 (-118 price at DraftKings) in the first half, risking 1.18 units to win one unit.
Plays I’ve added: Pavia ‘over’ 55.5 rushing yards at a -105 price (1.1 units to win 1), Pavia anytime TD -110 (1.1 units to win 1), Alexander to score 2+ TDs (0.2 units to win 1) and Vandy’s Team Total ‘over’ 24.5 points (0.55 units to win 0.5).
For more pregame analysis of Vandy vs. Iowa, check out this video preview at Southeastern 16.
If you’re looking for Vandy-Iowa postgame coverage, go to Southeastern 16’s YouTube channel to join Jay Greeson and I for our Reaction Pod.