As of late Friday afternoon, most books had moved Indiana (14-0 straight up, 9-5 against the spread) down to -3 for tonight’s rematch vs. Oregon in Atlanta. The total was in the 49.5 to 50.5 range, while the Ducks were +140 on the money line.
IU reportedly had around 80 percent of the fans compared to Alabama at last week’s Rose Bowl in Pasadena, where Curt Cignetti’s team dealt out a 38-3 Pimpslap as a 7.5-point favorite. The Hoosiers improved to 7-1 ATS in eight games as single-digit favorites since Cignetti took over before the 2024 campaign.
They appear to have an enormous home crowd advantage again tonight.
What Cignetti has done in Bloomington has been nothing short of spectacular. Before he arrived, IU had two 9-win seasons (1945 and 1967) in the program’s history that dates back to 1887. The Hoosiers had never once tasted a double-digit win total.
Cignetti didn’t just win his first nine games. No, he won his first nine games by 14 points or more. Next, he won his 10th straight. Indiana finished 11-2 with both of its losses coming on the road against Notre Dame and Ohio St., which beat the Fighting Irish in the finals of last year’s College Football Playoff.
Since IU’s loss in South Bend in the CFP, it has won 14 consecutive games, including wins over the Buckeyes and Crimson Tide. The program has inked Cignetti to a lucrative contract extension, and QB Fernando Mendoza has won the Heisman Trophy.
Despite the success, Cignetti’s team appears to still be laser focused. Sure, there’s the old adage of how it’s hard to beat the same team twice, but I’m confident we have the premier squad in backing Indiana.
The Hoosiers already went across the country to Eugene and beat the Ducks by double digits. They led 20-13 early in the fourth quarter when Oregon got a tying pick-six from dynamic true freshman cornerback Brandon Finney.
With the crowd going nuts sensing a shift in momentum, Indiana responded with a 12-play, 75-yard touchdown drive that chewed up more than six minutes of clock. Next, IU intercepted Oregon QB Dante Moore for the second time and then ate up more than four minutes of clock before hitting a 22-yard field goal to put the game away.
IU enjoyed a 23-14 advantage in first downs and a 326-267 edge in total yards at Oregon. Despite the pick six, the Hoosiers won by double digits in a hostile environment to make a statement.
I think they’re going to do the same tonight.
PREDICTIONS: Indiana -3 for three units, Indiana -2 in the first half for one unit, IU’s Team Total ‘over’ 26.5 points for 0.5 units and IU’s Team Total ‘over’ 12.5 points in the first half (-135 price).