As of Thursday afternoon, most books had Cincinnati (4-1 straight up, 4-1 against the spread) installed as a 10.5-point home favorite for Saturday’s Big 12 showdown vs. Central Florida at noon Eastern. The total was in the 53.5 to 54.5 range, while the Knights were +320 to +340 on the money line.
The Hard Rock and Bet365 both had Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby’s prop for rushing yards set at 40.5.
The junior signal caller hit his prop for an anytime touchdown and went ‘over’ his rushing yards prop before halftime in last week’s 38-30 home win over previously unbeaten Iowa St.
In five games this season, Sorsby has 291 rushing yards and five touchdowns on 44 attempts for a 6.6 yards-per-carry average. He’s produced 96, 52 and 64 rushing yards in the Bearcats’ three games against Power-Four opponents.
If we go back to last season, Sorsby had 48, 48, 143, 19 and 93 rushing yards in UC’s last five contests. Therefore, he has at least 48 rushing yards in seven of UC’s last eight games against P4 competition.
PREDICTIONS: I’m risking 1.1 units to win one unit on Sorsby to go ‘over’ 40.5 rushing yards. I’ve also added a one-unit play (risking 1.1 units) on the Bearcats -6.5 in the first half.