As of early Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Army (11-1 straight up, 7-4 against the spread) installed as a 6.5-point favorite for Saturday’s showdown vs. Navy. The total was 39 points at most spots, while the Midshipmen were +210 on the money line.
Army has won 10 of its 11 games by margins of 11 points or more. Three of the Black Knights’ four non-covers lost by only 2.5 points combined points to the closing line.
In its 45-28 win over East Carolina as a 17.5-point home favorite, bettors could’ve taken Jeff Monken’s team for a winner at anywhere from -15.5 to -16.5 the entire week until about 20 minutes before kickoff when the number went through the key number of 17 and moved to 17.5. In the 20-3 win over Air Force as an 18-point ‘chalk,’ Army star QB Bryson Daily was a late scratch and didn’t play coming out of the team’s open date when he hadn’t been listed on the injury report at all.
Finally, in the 29-24 home win over UTSA, Army had a 29-17 lead with 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter, but the Roadrunners got a touchdown for a backdoor cover as six-point road underdogs.
Daily is healthy now and sparked the Black Knights to a 35-14 win over Tulane last week as a five-point home underdog. Daily had 126 rushing yards and four TDs on 25 attempts against the Green Wave.
For the season, Daily has 1,480 rushing yards, 29 TDs and a 5.6 yards-per-carry average. He’s also completed 57.7 percent of his passes for 877 yards with an 8/1 TD-INT ratio.
Army is ranked #10 in the nation in total defense, #11 versus the run and #7 in scoring ‘D’ (15.0 points per game). The Black Knights are ranked #1 nationally in rushing yards, averaging 314.4 yards per game on the ground. They’re ranked #32 in scoring with their 32.9 PPG average.
Navy (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) is mired in a 2-3 slide both SU and ATS in its last five games, including a 35-0 home loss to Tulane, a 51-14 setback vs. Notre Dame and a 24-10 loss at Rice as a 13-point road favorite.
The Midshipmen struggle against the run, ranking #85 nationally after giving up an average of 159.8 rushing yards per game.
Army is 6-2 SU and a 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight head-to-head meetings in this storied rivalry. Give me the Black Knights.
PREDICTION: Army -6.5 vs. Navy risking 1.1 units to win one unit.