As of Saturday afternoon, most books had Tennessee (1-0 straight up, 1-0 against the spread) installed as a nine-point favorite for tonight’s showdown vs. NC St. in Charlotte. The total is 60 points, and the Wolfpack are +285 on the money line.
After the number opened up at six, it was quickly adjusted to seven and then moved to 7.5 on Monday morning. The Volunteers were up to -8.5 by Wednesday, and they got as high as -10 on Thursday. By Friday, however, the number had dipped down to either -8.5 or -9.
I played the Vols -7 on Sunday, so I feel great about that position. It’s based on Josh Heupel’s dynamic offense featuring true sophomore quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who led Tennessee to a 69-3 win over Chattanooga last week.
In his first career start in last year’s 35-0 win over Iowa at the Citrus Bowl, Iamaleava had three rushing TDs. In last week’s win over the Mocs, he completed 22-of-28 passes for 314 yards and three TDs without an interception.
Iamaleava has an elite group of WRs, including Bru McCoy (six catches for 89 yards last week), Dont’e Thornton (3-105-2 TDs), Chris Brazzell II and Squirrel White, who had 67 receptions for 803 yards and two TDs last season.
The Vols also have an outstanding featured back in Dylan Sampson, who had 124 rushing yards and three TDs vs. Chattanooga.
There are still a few numbers that I like at their current positions that allow us to back the Vols’ offensive production.
Let’s play UT’s Team Total ‘over’ 34.5 points for 1.5 units. Let’s also play the Vols’ Team Total to go ‘over’ 17.5 points in the first half for 0.5 units and Iamaleava’s prop for passing yards to go ‘over’ 255.5 for 0.5 units.
I think Nico leads us to victory on both of these wagers, in addition to my original play on the Vols -7.
Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC.