College football bettors are always on the lookout for value. Factors like homefield advantage, coaching style, and weather all play important roles.
Nevertheless, we compare three unique talent evaluation metrics for every FBS vs. FBS game each week with an eye toward unearthing unexpected talent advantages.
First, we take a look at the CFB Winning Edge Roster Strength ratings, which use recruiting projections from online scouting outlets as a base, but also adjust to weigh the experience level and on-field production of every active FBS player.
One particular advantage of Roster Strength is the weekly updates in the CFB Winning Edge FBS Team Profiles, which account for injuries, transfers and personnel moves. So, when a starting quarterback goes down, as it did for USC, South Carolina and Stanford last week, we can see how that impacts a team’s overall rating.
Next, we explore the average 247Sports Composite rating for each program. But, instead of treating every player on the roster equally, CFB Winning Edge captures only the players expected to contribute on the field. And, like with Roster Strength, it then groups players by position to develop unit-specific ratings, which are then merged into the formula.
Why focus on individual units instead of the team as a whole? A gluttony of highly rated players at one position, or a dearth of talent elsewhere, can skew the ratings. For example, a stable of four-star running backs, or multiple five-star quarterbacks (in which only one at a time is likely to contribute in a meaningful way), might buoy a team’s rating if it lacks talent among its linebacker corps or starting secondary.
We want to account for the players on the field as best we can, and not those standing on the sideline. But of course, it’s valuable to take a big picture view as well.
For that, we consult the 247Sports Team Talent Composite. The Team Talent Composite combines every rated player on every Division I team roster and adds the point totals together to arrive at a gross sum to denote the raw talent available for each program. It’s a solid snapshot at each team’s pure talent, and treats all players equally.
FRIDAY SEPT. 6
Wake Forest (-19) at Rice
Roster Strength: Wake Forest 83.98 (49), Rice 74.88 (129)
247Sports Rating: Wake Forest .8328 (54), Rice .7783 (113)
Team Talent Composite: Wake Forest 563.09 (68), Rice 396.33 (98)
Marshall at Boise State (-12)
Roster Strength: Marshall 81.62 (79), Boise State 81.40 (81)
247Sports Rating: Boise State .8213 (67), Marshall .7997 (84)
Team Talent Composite: Boise State 576.69 (62), Marshall 489.63 (79)
SATURDAY SEPT. 7
Ohio at Pitt (-5.5)
Roster Strength: Pitt 83.88 (51), Ohio 77.44 (116)
247Sports Rating: Pitt .8519 (32), Ohio .7728 (121)
Team Talent Composite: 637.86, Ohio 334.86 (117)
Cincinnati at Ohio State (-16)
Roster Strength: Ohio State 90.33 (4), Cincinnati 81.76 (77)
247Sports Rating: Ohio State .9169 (2), Cincinnati .8154 (68)
Team Talent Composite: Ohio State 973.56 (2), Cincinnati 576.61 (63)
Army at Michigan (-22.5)
Roster Strength: Michigan 88.95 (7), Army 77.20 (119)
247Sports Rating: Michigan .8702 (18), Army .7508 (128)
Team Talent Composite: Michigan 852.4 (11), 269.71 (129)
Rutgers at Iowa (-20)
Roster Strength: Iowa 83.75 (48), Rutgers 81.62 (80)
247Sports Rating: Iowa .8409 (43), Rutgers .8322 (55)
Team Talent Composite: Iowa 639.61 (40), Rutgers 588.56 (58)
Syracuse at Maryland (-2)
Roster Strength: Maryland 85.09 (33), Syracuse 84.11 (46)
247Sports Rating: Maryland .8557 (27), Syracuse .8306 (58)
Team Talent Composite: Maryland 703.94 (27), Syracuse 579.37 (60)
Old Dominion at Virginia Tech (-28.5)
Roster Strength: Virginia Tech 85.38 (32), Old Dominion 76.86 (123)
247Sports Rating: Virginia Tech .8624 (22), Old Dominion .7781 (114)
Team Talent Composite: Virginia Tech 696.41 (29), Old Dominion 376.95 (104)
UAB (-9.5) at Akron
Roster Strength: UAB 79.17 (101), Akron 77.50 (114)
247Sports Rating: UAB .7842 (101), Akron .7712 (123)
Team Talent Composite: UAB 442.59 (90), Akron 308.49 (124)
West Virginia at Missouri (-14)
Roster Strength: Missouri 85.54 (30), West Virginia 83.55 (54)
247Sports Rating: Missouri .8407 (44), West Virginia .8407 (46)
Team Talent Composite: Missouri 642.83 (39), West Virginia 633.19 (43)
Vanderbilt at Purdue (-7)
Roster Strength: Vanderbilt 83.88 (52), Purdue 81.98 (76)
247Sports Rating: Purdue .8358 (50), Vanderbilt .8356 (52)
Team Talent Composite: Purdue 607.13 (51), Vanderbilt 605.06 (53)
Bowling Green at Kansas State (-23.5)
Roster Strength: Kansas State 82.87 (63), Bowling Green 78.56 (105)
247Sports Rating: Kansas State .8107 (71), Bowling Green .7831 (103)
Team Talent Composite: Kansas State 550.75 (72), Bowling Green 315.44 (122)
Northern Illinois at Utah (-21.5)
Roster Strength: Utah 86.61 (22), Northern Illinois 83.21 (59)
247Sports Rating: Utah .8358 (51), Northern Illinois .7890 (96)
Team Talent Composite: Utah 619.25 (47), Northern Illinois 397.98 (97)
USF at Georgia Tech (-6)
Roster Strength: USF 84.63 (40), Georgia Tech 79.24 (98)
247Sports Rating: Georgia Tech .8356 (40), USF .8253 (64)
Team Talent Composite: Georgia Tech 629.10 (45), USF 560.49 (69)
Texas A&M at Clemson (-17.5)
Roster Strength: Clemson 90.98 (2), Texas A&M 87.02 (16)
247Sports Rating: Clemson .8816 (14), Texas A&M .8810 (15)
Team Talent Composite: Clemson 863.03 (9), Texas A&M 847.15 (12)
Central Michigan at Wisconsin (-35)
Roster Strength: Wisconsin 84.53 (42), Central Michigan 79.13 (100)
247Sports Rating: Wisconsin .8461 (36), Central Michigan .7967 (87)
Team Talent Composite: Wisconsin 675.80 (33), Central Michigan (94)
Nebraska (-4) at Colorado
Roster Strength: Nebraska 84.23 (45), Colorado 84.03 (47)
247Sports Rating: Nebraska .8534 (30), Colorado .8315 (56)
Team Talent Composite: Nebraska 729.47 (24), Colorado 614.27 (48)
Charlotte at Appalachian State (-21.5)
Roster Strength: Appalachian State 81.08 (83), Charlotte 78.82 (102)
247Sports Rating: Appalachian State .7776 (115), Charlotte .7728 (120)
Team Talent Composite: Charlotte 389.37 (101), Appalachian State 344.68 (114)
Illinois (-21) at Connecticut
Roster Strength: Illinois 83.75 (53), Connecticut 76.69 (124)
247Sports Rating: Illinois .8370 (48), Connecticut .7874 (97)
Team Talent Composite: Illinois 660.43 (37), Connecticut 412.55 (95)
Southern Miss at Mississippi State (-16.5)
Roster Strength: Mississippi State 87.96 (13), Southern Miss 78.45 (104)
247Sports Rating: Mississippi State .8599 (23), Southern Miss .7843 (100)
Team Talent Composite: Mississippi State 732.68 (23), Southern Miss 456.23 (84)
New Mexico State at Alabama (-55)
Roster Strength: Alabama 91.67 (1), New Mexico State 79.95 (92)
247Sports Rating: Alabama .9224 (1), New Mexico State .7706 (125)
Team Talent Composite: Alabama 984.96 (1), New Mexico State 286.72 (125)
UTSA at Baylor (-26)
Roster Strength: Baylor 86.76 (19), UTSA 75.85 (126)
247Sports Rating: Baylor .8488 (33), UTSA .7933 (92)
Team Talent Composite: Baylor 668.90 (35), UTSA 456.40 (83)
San Diego State at UCLA (-7.5)
Roster Strength: UCLA 85.02 (34), San Diego State 80.53 (84)
247Sports Rating: UCLA .8543 (29), San Diego State .8030 (78)
Team Talent Composite: 741.97 (22), San Diego State 445.74 (89)
ULM at Florida State (-21)
Roster Strength: Florida State 88.10 (9), ULM 79.62 (93)
247Sports Rating: Florida State .8938 (6), ULM .7785 (112)
Team Talent Composite: Florida State 878.07 (6), ULM 346.03 (112)
UCF (-10.5) at FAU
Roster Strength: UCF 86.75 (20), FAU 80.42 (86)
247Sports Rating: UCF .8292 (60), FAU .7990 (85)
Team Talent Composite: UCF 606.87 (52), FAU 520.66 (75)
Wyoming (-7) at Texas State
Roster Strength: Wyoming 78.43 (106), Texas State 77.48 (115)
247Sports Rating: Wyoming .7811 (106), Texas State .7789 (110)
Team Talent Composite: Texas State 345.75 (113), Wyoming 337.23 (115)
WKU at FIU (-7)
Roster Strength: FIU 82.51 (68), WKU 77.84 (110)
247Sports Rating: FIU .7997 (83), WKU .7935 (91)
Team Talent Composite: FIU 525.83 (74), WKU 449.98 (88)
North Texas at SMU (-3.5)
Roster Strength: SMU 84.77 (38), North Texas 82.17 (74)
247Sports Rating: SMU .8101 (72), North Texas .7959 (89)
Team Talent Composite: SMU 563.62 (67), North Texas 457.24 (82)
BYU at Tennessee (-3.5)
Roster Strength: Tennessee 86.72 (18), BYU 82.57 (66)
247Sports Rating: Tennessee .8802 (16), BYU .8062 (74)
Team Talent Composite: Tennessee 837.17 (15), BYU 567.47 (65)
Coastal Carolina at Kansas (-7.5)
Roster Strength: Kansas 82.74 (64), Coastal Carolina 74.34 (130)
247Sports Rating: Kansas .8131 (69), Coastal Carolina .7601 (127)
Team Talent Composite: Kansas 533.25 (73), Coastal Carolina 286.06 (126)
LSU (-6.5) at Texas
Roster Strength: LSU 88.84 (8), Texas 88.11 (10)
247Sports Rating: LSU .9045 (4), Texas .8938 (7)
Team Talent Composite: LSU 906.17 (5), Texas 877.91 (7)
Tulane at Auburn (-18)
Roster Strength: Auburn 86.17 (27), Tulane 82.23 (72)
247Sports Rating: Auburn .8908 (9), Tulane .8016 (81)
Team Talent Composite: Auburn 843.93 (13), Tulane 486.98 (80)
Buffalo at Penn State (-29.5)
Roster Strength: Penn State 86.85 (17), Buffalo 74.91 (128)
247Sports Rating: Penn State .8874 (11), Buffalo .7751 (117)
Team Talent Composite: Penn State 857.34 (10), Buffalo 283.73 (127)
Nevada at Oregon (-24)
Roster Strength: Oregon 87.64 (11), Nevada 77.40 (117)
247Sports Rating: Oregon .8690 (19), Nevada .7730 (119)
Team Talent Composite: Oregon 817.70 (17), Nevada 383.85 (102)
Western Michigan at Michigan State (-16)
Roster Strength: Michigan State 86.50 (23), Western Michigan 84.64 (43)
247Sports Rating: Michigan State .8531 (31), Western Michigan .8018 (79)
Team Talent Composite: Michigan State 688.74 (32), Western Michigan 450.53 (87)
Eastern Michigan at Kentucky (-15)
Roster Strength: Kentucky 82.74 (62), Eastern Michigan 77.75 (112)
247Sports Rating: Kentucky .8419 (41), Eastern Michigan .7749 (118)
Team Talent Composite: Kentucky 672.74 (34), Eastern Michigan 330.17 (119)
Arkansas at Ole Miss (-6.5)
Roster Strength: Ole Miss 85.42 (31), Arkansas 84.94 (35)
247Sports Rating: Ole Miss .8570 (25), Arkansas .8557 (26)
Team Talent Composite: Ole Miss 717.65 (25), Arkansas 707.72 (26)
Liberty at Louisiana (-13.5)
Roster Strength: Louisiana 79.35 (96), Liberty 78.08 (108)
247Sports Rating: Louisiana .7808 (107), Liberty .7352 (130)
Team Talent Composite: Louisiana 394.01 (99), Liberty 137.67 (134)
Miami (-4) at North Carolina
Roster Strength: Miami 87.45 (14), North Carolina 85.14 (39)
247Sports Rating: Miami .8685 (20), North Carolina .8585 (24)
Team Talent Composite: Miami 815.12 (18), North Carolina 697.95 (28)
UTEP at Texas Tech (-34)
Roster Strength: Texas Tech 82.72 (65), UTEP 75.78 (127)
247Sports Rating: Texas Tech .8255 (63), UTEP .7668 (126)
Team Talent Composite: Texas Tech 577.21 (61), UTEP 354.43 (110)
Tulsa (-6.5) at San Jose State
Roster Strength: Tulsa 80.30 (88), San Jose State 77.84 (111)
247Sports Rating: Tulsa .7951 (90), San Jose State .7823 (104)
Team Talent Composite: Tulsa 417.24 (93), San Jose State 389.91 (100)
Arkansas State at UNLV (-1.5)
Roster Strength: UNLV 81.25 (82), Arkansas State 79.65 (89)
247Sports Rating: Arkansas State .7922 (93), UNLV .7908 (95)
Team Talent Composite: UNLV 427.57 (92), Arkansas State 380.00 (103)
Cal at Washington (-13.5)
Roster Strength: Washington 87.29 (15), Cal 82.54 (67)
247Sports Rating: Washington .8859 (13), Cal .8298 (59)
Team Talent Composite: Washington 801.33 (19), Cal 611.58 (50)
Stanford at USC (-1)
Roster Strength: USC 86.60 (21), Stanford 85.74 (28)
247Sports Rating: USC .8922 (8), Stanford .8661 (21)
Team Talent Composite: USC 915.56 (4), Stanford 787.59 (20)
Minnesota (-3) at Fresno State
Roster Strength: Minnesota 84.23 (44), Fresno State 80.38 (87)
247Sports Rating: Minnesota .8436 (39), Fresno State .8017 (80)
Team Talent Composite: Minnesota 621.36 (46), Fresno State 437.82 (91)
Oregon State at Hawaii (-6.5)
Roster Strength: Oregon State 83.79 (50), Hawaii 79.34 (97)
247Sports Rating: Oregon State .8279 (61), Hawaii .7765 (116)
Team Talent Composite: Oregon State 593.42 (57), Hawaii 350.48 (111)
BEST BETS
Admittedly, our Best Bets got off to a rough start with a 3-6 record against the spread. We focused solely on underdogs last week, and there are still a few to watch in Week 2. But also, in an effort to reverse our fortunes, we must note a pair of relatively small favorites with notable talent advantages in Week 2.
Arkansas (+6.5)
Kansas (-7.5)
Oregon State (+6.5)
Tennessee (-3.5)
Texas (+6.5)
Texas A&M (+17.5)
Texas State (+7)
USC (-1)
USF (+6)
Vanderbilt (+7)