The final week of the 2019 college football season is upon us. By now, you likely understand we search every game, and attempt to strip out all the noise surrounding each matchup to focus on what matters most: talent.
Each week, we comb through three important talent metrics: CFB Winning Edge Roster Strength, the average player ratings of each team using the 247Sports Composite, and also the 247Sports Team Talent Composite, in search of talent advantages not reflected by oddsmakers.
And we’ve been successful more often than not. Following a 6-5-1 record against the spread in Week 13, the Best Bets we’ve published are 67-57-3 ATS (54.0 percent) this year.
We’ve also improved over the course of the season. Since Week 5, our weekly talent advantage picks have resulted in a 52-33-3 record ATS (61.2 percent).
Rivalries are unique in college football, and they add a new layer to the usual narratives and outside factors surrounding each game this weekend.
But in the final week of the regular season, we have found 11 matchups in which the most valuable factor in the game – team talent – is underrated.
THURSDAY, NOV. 28
Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State (-2.5)
Roster Strength: Mississippi State 87.32 (13), Ole Miss 84.49 (36)
247Sports Rating: Mississippi State .8599 (23), Ole Miss .8570 (25)
Team Talent Composite: Mississippi State 732.68 (23), Ole Miss 717.92 (25)
FRIDAY, NOV. 29
Virginia Tech (-2.5) at Virginia
Roster Strength: Virginia Tech 84.54 (37), Virginia 83.25 (54)
247Sports Rating: Virginia Tech .8624 (22), Virginia .8355 (53)
Team Talent Composite: Virginia Tech 696.39 (29), Virginia 580.28 (59)
Texas Tech at Texas (-9.5)
Roster Strength: Texas 87.37 (13), Texas Tech 82.61 (59)
247Sports Rating: Texas .8938 (7), Texas Tech .8255 (63)
Team Talent Composite: Texas 877.91 (7), Texas Tech 577.21 (60)
Bowling Green at Buffalo (-28.5)
Roster Strength: Buffalo 76.86 (118), Bowling Green 76.66 (120)
247Sports Rating: Bowling Green .7831 (103), Buffalo .7751 (117)
Team Talent Composite: Bowling Green 315.44 (122), Buffalo 284.74 (126)
Kent State at Eastern Michigan (-5)
Roster Strength: Eastern Michigan 78.02 (108), Kent State 77.54 (112)
247Sports Rating: Kent State .7799 (108), Eastern Michigan .7749 (118)
Team Talent Composite: Eastern Michigan 317.49 (121), Kent State 313.22 (123)
Miami OH at Ball State (-3)
Roster Strength: Ball State 80.60 (81), Miami OH 76.75 (119)
247Sports Rating: Miami OH .7969 (86), Ball State .7792 (109)
Team Talent Composite: Miami OH 359.14 (113), Ball State 327.92 (120)
Toledo at Central Michigan (-9.5)
Roster Strength: Central Michigan 79.92 (89), Toledo 79.21 (94)
247Sports Rating: Toledo .8065 (73), Central Michigan .7967 (87)
Team Talent Composite: Toledo 451.43 (91), Central Michigan 416.63 (99)
Iowa (-5.5) at Nebraska
Roster Strength: Nebraska 84.37 (39), Iowa 83.37 (53)
247Sports Rating: Nebraska .8534 (30), Iowa .8409 (43)
Team Talent Composite: Nebraska 729.47 (24), Iowa 637.65 (43)
Missouri (-12) at Arkansas
Roster Strength: Missouri 84.33 (40), Arkansas 83.72 (47)
247Sports Rating: Arkansas .8557 (26), Missouri .8407 (44)
Team Talent Composite: Arkansas 707.72 (26), Missouri 642.83 (40)
Cincinnati at Memphis (-11)
Roster Strength: Memphis 84.68 (35), Cincinnati 82.20 (65)
247Sports Rating: Cincinnati .8154 (68), Memphis .8112 (70)
Team Talent Composite: Cincinnati 576.61 (61), Memphis 551.97 (71)
Boise State (-13.5) at Colorado State
Roster Strength: Boise State 80.58 (79), Colorado State 80.57 (82)
247Sports Rating: Boise State .8213 (67), Colorado State .8041 (77)
Team Talent Composite: Boise State 561.42 (67), Colorado State 518.83 (76)
Washington State at Washington (-7)
Roster Strength: Washington 88.45 (8), Washington State 83.45 (51)
247Sports Rating: Washington .8859 (13), Washington State .8216 (66)
Team Talent Composite: Washington 801.33 (19), Washington State 556.27 (70)
West Virginia at TCU (-12.5)
Roster Strength: TCU 84.26 (35), West Virginia 83.49 (48)
247Sports Rating: TCU .8481 (35), West Virginia .8407 (46)
Team Talent Composite: TCU 691.63 (30), West Virginia 639.11 (41)
Arkansas State (-11) at South Alabama
Roster Strength: Arkansas State 78.03 (105), South Alabama 76.66 (121)
247Sports Rating: Arkansas State .7922 (93), South Alabama .7839 (102)
Team Talent Composite: Arkansas State 447.87 (93), South Alabama 381.38 (110)
Appalachian State (-12.5) at Troy
Roster Strength: Appalachian State 81.43 (75), Troy 79.29 (95)
247Sports Rating: Troy .7913 (94), Appalachian State .7776 (115)
Team Talent Composite: Appalachian State 412.32 (101), Troy 388.67 (108)
USF at UCF (-23.5)
Roster Strength: UCF 84.78 (35), USF 81.43 (70)
247Sports Rating: UCF .8292 (60), USF .8253 (64)
Team Talent Composite: UCF 598.57 (54), USF 559.66 (69)
SATURDAY NOV. 30, 2019
Ohio State (-8.5) at Michigan
Roster Strength: Ohio State 92.41 (1), Michigan 88.30 (9)
247Sports Rating: Ohio State .9169 (2), Michigan .8702 (18)
Team Talent Composite: Ohio State 973.56 (2), Michigan 853.40 (11)
Clemson (-27.5) at South Carolina
Roster Strength: Clemson 91.43 (3), South Carolina 84.97 (32)
247Sports Rating: Clemson .8816 (14), South Carolina .8711 (17)
Team Talent Composite: Clemson 863.03 (9), South Carolina 762.68 (21)
Georgia (-28.5) at Georgia Tech
Roster Strength: Georgia 90.73 (5), Georgia Tech 79.20 (97)
247Sports Rating: Georgia .9136 (3), Georgia Tech .8356 (49)
Team Talent Composite: Georgia 960.16 (3), Georgia Tech 629.10 (45)
Texas State at Coastal Carolina (-7)
Roster Strength: Texas State 77.19 (113), Coastal Carolina 74.88 (129)
247Sports Rating: Texas State .7789 (110), Coastal Carolina .7601 (127)
Team Talent Composite: Texas State 348.47 (116), Coastal Carolina 305.73 (125)
Tulsa (-5.5) at East Carolina
Roster Strength: Tulsa 81.30 (73), East Carolina 78.41 (104)
247Sports Rating: East Carolina .8005 (82), Tulsa .7951 (90)
Team Talent Composite: East Carolina 468.23 (85), Tulsa 424.54 (96)
FIU at Marshall (-7.5)
Roster Strength: FIU 82.50 (62), Marshall 80.24 (84)
247Sports Rating: FIU .7997 (83), Marshall .7997 (84)
Team Talent Composite: FIU 532.88 (73), Marshall 489.63 (79)
Louisville at Kentucky (-2.5)
Roster Strength: Kentucky 83.19 (53), Louisville 82.18 (65)
247Sports Rating: Louisville .8428 (40), Kentucky .8419 (41)
Team Talent Composite: Kentucky 672.74 (34), Louisville 645.84 (38)
Northwestern at Illinois (-8.5)
Roster Strength: Illinois 84.17 (42), Northwestern 83.07 (53)
247Sports Rating: Northwestern .8412 (42), Illinois .8370 (48)
Team Talent Composite: Illinois 661.73 (37), Northwestern 612.62 (49)
Indiana (-6.5) at Purdue
Roster Strength: Indiana 82.96 (58), Purdue 77.70 (111)
247Sports Rating: Indiana .8438 (38), Purdue .8358 (50)
Team Talent Composite: Purdue 607.40 (51), Indiana 603.81 (53)
Wake Forest (-4) at Syracuse
Roster Strength: Syracuse 84.12 (43), Wake Forest 83.15 (55)
247Sports Rating: Wake Forest .8328 (54), Syracuse .8306 (58)
Team Talent Composite: Syracuse 574.82 (62), Wake Forest 563.24 (66)
Middle Tennessee at WKU (-8.5)
Roster Strength: Middle Tennessee 81.22 (74), WKU 79.82 (88)
247Sports Rating: Middle Tennessee .7960 (88), WKU .7935 (91)
Team Talent Composite: WKU 486.97 (82), Middle Tennessee 450.79 (92)
Charlotte (-9.5) at Old Dominion
Roster Strength: Charlotte 78.75 (102), Old Dominion 75.82 (127)
247Sports Rating: Old Dominion .7781 (114), Charlotte .7728 (120)
Team Talent Composite: Charlotte 386.38 (109), Old Dominion 374.74 (111)
Wyoming at Air Force (-11)
Roster Strength: Air Force 77.74 (110), Wyoming 77.89 (111)
247Sports Rating: Wyoming .7811 (106), Air Force .7428 (129)
Team Talent Composite: Wyoming 397.90 (106), Air Force 151.86 (134)
New Mexico State at Liberty (-14)
Roster Strength: New Mexico State 79.58 (92), Liberty 79.09 (97)
247Sports Rating: New Mexico State .7706 (125), Liberty .7352 (130)
Team Talent Composite: New Mexico State 269.79 (127), Liberty 153.48 (133)
Rice (-7) at UTEP
Roster Strength: UTEP 75.08 (120), Rice 75.50 (129)
247Sports Rating: Rice .7783 (113), UTEP .7668 (126)
Team Talent Composite: Rice 397.04 (107), UTEP 355.31 (115)
UNLV at Nevada (-7)
Roster Strength: UNLV 79.01 (98), Nevada 77.13 (117)
247Sports Rating: UNLV .7908 (95), Nevada .7730 (119)
Team Talent Composite: UNLV 462.72 (86), Nevada 461.96 (87)
Alabama (-3.5) at Auburn
Roster Strength: Alabama 88.94 (6), Auburn 86.40 (22)
247Sports Rating: Alabama .9224 (1), Auburn .8908 (9)
Team Talent Composite: Alabama 984.96 (1), Auburn 843.93 (13)
Wisconsin (-3) at Minnesota
Roster Strength: Wisconsin 85.33 (27), Minnesota 84.46 (40)
247Sports Rating: Wisconsin .8461 (36), Minnesota .8436 (39)
Team Talent Composite: Wisconsin 675.80 (33), Minnesota 621.36 (46)
Baylor (-14) at Kansas
Roster Strength: Baylor 87.54 (10), Kansas 83.28 (53)
247Sports Rating: Baylor .8488 (33), Kansas .8131 (69)
Team Talent Composite: Baylor 668.90 (35), Kansas 528.62 (74)
Rutgers at Penn State (-40)
Roster Strength: Penn State 86.37 (22), Rutgers 78.84 (100)
247Sports Rating: Penn State .8874 (11), Rutgers .8322 (55)
Team Talent Composite: Penn State 857.34 (10), Rutgers 587.28 (58)
Connecticut at Temple (-27)
Roster Strength: Temple 81.23 (73), Connecticut 77.38 (115)
247Sports Rating: Temple .8043 (76), Connecticut .7874 (97)
Team Talent Composite: Temple 489.03 (80), Connecticut 412.55 (100)
Southern Miss at FAU (-8.5)
Roster Strength: FAU 81.26 (74), Southern Miss 80.11 (86)
247Sports Rating: FAU .7990 (85), Southern Miss .7843 (100)
Team Talent Composite: FAU 524.02 (75), Southern Miss 456.29 (89)
UTSA at Louisiana Tech (-20.5)
Roster Strength: Louisiana Tech 79.77 (89), UTSA 76.46 (123)
247Sports Rating: Louisiana Tech .8047 (75), UTSA .7933 (92)
Team Talent Composite: Louisiana Tech 501.25 (78), UTSA 471.36 (84)
Boston College at Pitt (-9)
Roster Strength: 84.04 (44), Boston College 79.67 (92)
247Sports Rating: Pitt .8519 (32), Boston College .8313 (57)
Team Talent Composite: Pitt 637.95 (42), Boston College 564.95 (65)
Miami (-9) at Duke
Roster Strength: Miami 87.46 (11), Duke 85.27 (28)
247Sports Rating: Miami .8685 (20), Duke .8485 (34)
Team Talent Composite: Miami 815.12 (18), Duke 633.24 (44)
Maryland at Michigan State (-22)
Roster Strength: Michigan State 84.39 (37), Maryland 83.46 (51)
247Sports Rating: Maryland .8557 (27), Michigan State .8531 (31)
Team Talent Composite: Maryland 703.94 (27), Michigan State 688.74 (31)
Oregon State at Oregon (-19)
Roster Strength: Oregon 88.86 (7), Oregon State 84.73 (32)
247Sports Rating: Oregon .8690 (19), Oregon State .8279 (61)
Team Talent Composite: Oregon 817.70 (17), Oregon State 595.50 (57)
Notre Dame (-16.5) at Stanford
Roster Strength: Notre Dame 87.36 (10), Stanford 86.05 (23)
247Sports Rating: Notre Dame .8869 (12), Stanford .8661 (21)
Team Talent Composite: Notre Dame 843.29 (14), Stanford 787.59 (20)
Vanderbilt at Tennessee (-21)
Roster Strength: Tennessee 87.37 (12), Vanderbilt 83.98 (43)
247Sports Rating: Tennessee .8802 (16), Vanderbilt .8356 (52)
Team Talent Composite: Tennessee 830.34 (16), Vanderbilt 605.06 (52)
UAB (-3) at North Texas
Roster Strength: North Texas 79.55 (93), UAB 77.07 (117)
247Sports Rating: North Texas .7959 (89), UAB .7842 (101)
Team Talent Composite: North Texas 457.24 (88), UAB 441.81 (94)
Utah State (-11.5) at New Mexico
Roster Strength: Utah State 79.96 (86), New Mexico 76.34 (124)
247Sports Rating: New Mexico .7858 (98), Utah State .7727 (122)
Team Talent Composite: Utah State 424.16 (97), New Mexico 401.90 (104)
Tulane at SMU (-3.5)
Roster Strength: SMU 85.84 (24), Tulane 81.90 (67)
247Sports Rating: SMU .8101 (72), Tulane .8016 (81)
Team Talent Composite: SMU 565.15 (64), Tulane 486.98 (81)
Georgia State at Georgia Southern (-7)
Roster Strength: Georgia Southern 80.24 (83), Georgia State 78.35 (105)
247Sports Rating: Georgia State .7852 (99), Georgia Southern .7821 (105)
Team Talent Composite: Georgia Southern 411.80 (102), Georgia State 369.05 (112)
Texas A&M at LSU (-17)
Roster Strength: LSU 90.30 (5), Texas A&M 86.48 (19)
247Sports Rating: LSU .9045 (4), Texas A&M .8810 (15)
Team Talent Composite: LSU 906.17 (5), Texas A&M 848.89 (12)
Iowa State (-4.5) at Kansas State
Roster Strength: Iowa State 84.66 (35), Kansas State 82.73 (61)
247Sports Rating: Iowa State .8376 (47), Kansas State .8107 (71)
Team Talent Composite: Iowa State 597.15 (56), Kansas State 543.49 (72)
Navy (-9) at Houston
Roster Strength: Houston 81.50 (68), Navy 78.99 (99)
247Sports Rating: Houston .8243 (65), Navy .7712 (124)
Team Talent Composite: Houston 597.62 (55), Navy 335.40 (119)
North Carolina (-9) at NC State
Roster Strength: North Carolina 83.11 (56), NC State 81.21 (72)
247Sports Rating: North Carolina .8585 (24), NC State .8452 (37)
Team Talent Composite: North Carolina 697.75 (28), NC State 668.85 (36)
Colorado at Utah (-28.5)
Roster Strength: Utah 87.05 (15), Colorado 83.66 (49)
247Sports Rating: Utah .8358 (51), Colorado .8315 (56)
Team Talent Composite: Utah 620.35 (47), Colorado 614.27 (48)
Florida State at Florida (-17.5)
Roster Strength: Florida 86.70 (16), Florida State 86.06 (23)
247Sports Rating: Florida .8885 (10), Florida State .8938 (6)
Team Talent Composite: Florida State 878.07 (6), Florida 835.68 (15)
ULM at Louisiana (-19.5)
Roster Strength: ULM 79.87 (88), Louisiana 79.71 (90)
247Sports Rating: ULM .7785 (112), Louisiana .7808 (107)
Team Talent Composite: Louisiana 406.49 (103), ULM 346.03 (117)
Oklahoma (-13.5) at Oklahoma State
Roster Strength: Oklahoma 90.18 (6), Oklahoma State 83.63 (49)
247Sports Rating: Oklahoma .8982 (5), Oklahoma State .8407 (45)
Team Talent Composite: Oklahoma 869.53 (8), Oklahoma State 644.42 (39)
BYU (-3) at San Diego State
Roster Strength: San Diego State 80.89 (76), BYU 79.14 (96)
247Sports Rating: BYU .8062 (74), San Diego State .8030 (78)
Team Talent Composite: BYU 560.78 (68), San Diego State 504.19 (77)
Arizona at Arizona State (-14)
Roster Strength: Arizona State 86.57 (19), Arizona 85.02 (32)
247Sports Rating: Arizona State .8550 (28), Arizona .8265 (62)
Team Talent Composite: Arizona State 686.44 (32), Arizona 570.07 (63)
Cal at UCLA (-1.5)
Roster Strength: UCLA 85.37 (27), Cal 80.61 (83)
247Sports Rating: UCLA .8543 (29), Cal .8298 (59)
Team Talent Composite: UCLA 741.40 (22), Cal 611.58 (50)
Fresno State (-3) at San Jose State
Roster Strength: Fresno State 80.83 (77), San Jose State 78.31 (105)
247Sports Rating: Fresno State .8017 (80), San Jose State .7823 (104)
Team Talent Composite: Fresno State 482.79 (83), San Jose State 433.33 (95)
Army at Hawaii (-2.5)
Roster Strength: Hawaii 78.97 (97), Army 75.99 (126)
247Sports Rating: Hawaii .7765 (116), Army .7508 (128)
Team Talent Composite: Hawaii 420.99 (98), Army 265.19 (128)
Best Bets
Bowling Green +28.5
Toledo +9.5
Nebraska +5.5
FIU +7.5
New Mexico State +14
UNLV +7
Maryland +22
North Texas +3
Houston +9
ULM +19.5
UCLA -1.5
*All lines as of Wednesday evening.