CFB Winning Edge: Michigan, Florida State present value as Week 8 underdogs

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At the midpoint of the 2019 college football season, fans and bettors may be tempted to abandon preseason projections in favor of the eye test.

Nevertheless, priors make predictions more accurate. And one of the most important priors for us is talent.

That’s why we use three talent metrics for every FBS team.

1. CFB Winning Edge Roster Strength: Incorporates production from this season, in addition to injuries and other personnel news.

2. 247Sports Composite: Player ratings.

3. 247Sports Team Talent Composite: Team talent rankings.

Using those figures, we search for hidden talent advantages in every FBS vs. FBS matchup, and we compare them to the point spreads available from Las Vegas and offshore sportsbooks.

Our best bets (located at the bottom of this page) are 16-6-1 the last three weeks. Remarkably, 15 games meet our threshold as worthy of playing in Week 8.

FRIDAY, OCT. 18

Marshall at FAU (-5.5)

  • Roster Strength: FAU 80.57 (81), Marshall 79.89 (92)
  • 247Sports Rating: Marshall .7997 (84), FAU .7990 (85)
  • Team Talent Composite: FAU 524.02 (75), Marshall 489.63 (81)

Pitt (-3.5) at Syracuse

  • Roster Strength: Pitt 83.68 (45), Syracuse 83.71 (47)
  • 247Sports Rating: Pitt .8519 (32), Syracuse .8306 (58)
  • Team Talent Composite: Pitt 637.95 (42) Syracuse 574.82 (62)

Ohio State (-28) at Northwestern

  • Roster Strength: Ohio State 92.18 (1), Northwestern 83.07 (53)
  • 247Sports Rating: Ohio State .9169 (2), Northwestern .8412 (42)
  • Team Talent Composite: Ohio State 973.56 (2), Northwestern 612.62 (49)

UNLV at Fresno State (-15)

  • Roster Strength: Fresno State 80.83 (77), UNLV 78.94 (98)
  • 247Sports Rating: Fresno State .8017 (80), UNLV .7908 (95)
  • Team Talent Composite: Fresno State 482.79 (83), UNLV 462.72 (86)

SATURDAY, OCT. 19

Clemson (-24) at Louisville

  • Roster Strength: Clemson 91.23 (2), Louisville 83.33 (56)
  • 247Sports Rating: Clemson .8816 (14), Louisville .8428 (40)
  • Team Talent Composite: Clemson 863.03 (9), Louisville 645.84 (38)

West Virginia at Oklahoma (-33.5)

  • Roster Strength: Oklahoma 90.25 (4), West Virginia 83.33 (52)
  • 247Sports Rating: Oklahoma .8982 (5), West Virginia .8407 (46)
  • Team Talent Composite: Oklahoma 869.53 (8), West Virginia 639.11 (41)

Wisconsin (-31) at Illinois

  • Roster Strength: Wisconsin 85.44 (28), Illinois 82.04 (70)
  • 247Sports Rating: Wisconsin .8461 (36), Illinois .8370 (48)
  • Team Talent Composite: Wisconsin 675.80 (33), Illinois 661.73 (37)

Florida (-5) at South Carolina

  • Roster Strength: Florida 87.24 (12), South Carolina 85.47 (20)
  • 247Sports Rating: Florida .8885 (10), South Carolina .8711 (17)
  • Team Talent Composite: Florida 835.68 (15), South Carolina 762.68 (21)

Auburn (-19.5) at Arkansas

  • Roster Strength: Auburn 86.65 (19), Arkansas 84.31 (39)
  • 247Sports Rating: Auburn .8908 (9), Arkansas .8557 (26)
  • Team Talent Composite: Auburn 843.93 (13), Arkansas 707.72 (26)

Purdue at Iowa (-17.5)

  • Roster Strength: Iowa 83.86 (45), Purdue 78.85 (102)
  • 247Sports Rating: Iowa .8409 (43), Purdue .8358 (50)
  • Team Talent Composite: Iowa 637.65 (43), Purdue 607.40 (51)

Houston (-22) at Connecticut

  • Roster Strength: Houston 81.86 (71), Connecticut 76.69 (123)
  • 247Sports Rating: Houston .8243 (65), Connecticut .7874 (97)
  • Team Talent Composite: Houston 597.62 (55), Connecticut 412.55 (101)

Kent State at Ohio (-7.5)

  • Roster Strength: Kent State 78.13 (108), Ohio 78.06 (110)
  • 247Sports Rating: Kent State .7799 (108), Ohio .7728 (121)
  • Team Talent Composite: Kent State 313.22 (123), Ohio 337.17 (118)

Georgia Tech at Miami (-18)

  • Roster Strength: Miami 87.90 (9), Georgia Tech 79.05 (99)
  • 247Sports Rating: Miami .8685 (20), Georgia Tech .8356 (49)
  • Team Talent Composite: Miami 815.12 (18), Georgia Tech 629.10 (45)

N.C. State (-3.5) at Boston College

  • Roster Strength: N.C. State 81.82 (72), Boston College 79.51 (93)
  • 247Sports Rating: N.C. State .8452 (37), Boston College .8313 (57)
  • Team Talent Composite: N.C. State 668.85 (36), Boston College 564.95 (65)

Iowa State (-7) at Texas Tech

  • Roster Strength: Iowa State 83.42 (48), Texas Tech 82.53 (64)
  • 247Sports Rating: Iowa State .8376 (47), Texas Tech .8255 (63)
  • Team Talent Composite: Iowa State 597.15 (55), Texas Tech 577.21 (61)

Toledo at Ball State (-2.5)

  • Roster Strength: Toledo 80.57 (83), Ball State 80.01 (88)
  • 247Sports Rating: Toledo .8065 (73), Ball State .7792 (109)
  • Team Talent Composite: Toledo 449.42 (92), Ball State 327.92 (120)

Central Michigan (-11) at Bowling Green

  • Roster Strength: Central Michigan 78.68 (104), Bowling Green 77.66 (114)
  • 247Sports Rating: Central Michigan .7967 (87), Bowling Green .7831 (103)
  • Team Talent Composite: Central Michigan 416.27 (94), Bowling Green 315.44 (122)

Northern Illinois (-2.5) at Miami OH

  • Roster Strength: Northern Illinois 82.02 (57), Miami OH 76.92 (120)
  • 247Sports Rating: Northern Illinois .7890 (96), Miami OH .799 (86)
  • Team Talent Composite: Northern Illinois 397.98 (105), Miami OH 359.14 (113)

TCU (-3.5) at Kansas State

  • Roster Strength: TCU 84.26 (35), Kansas State 82.73 (61)
  • 247Sports Rating: TCU .8481 (35), Kansas State .8107 (71)
  • Team Talent Composite: TCU 691.63 (30), Kansas State 543.49 (72)

Oregon State at Cal (-10.5)

  • Roster Strength: Oregon State 83.18 (60), Cal 81.81 (73)
  • 247Sports Rating: Cal .8298 (59), Oregon State .8279 (61)
  • Team Talent Composite: Cal 611.58 (50), Oregon State 593.90 (57)

New Mexico at Wyoming (-19.5)

  • Roster Strength: New Mexico 77.04 (105), Wyoming 77.00 (119)
  • 247Sports Rating: New Mexico .7858 (98), Wyoming .7811 (106)
  • Team Talent Composite: Wyoming 397.90 (106), New Mexico 322.60 (121)

Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern (-6.5)

  • Roster Strength: Georgia Southern 79.89 (88), Coastal Carolina 74.71 (130)
  • 247Sports Rating: Georgia Southern .7821 (105), Coastal Carolina .7601 (127)
  • Team Talent Composite: Georgia Southern 411.80 (102), Coastal Carolina 305.73 (125)

LSU (-18.5) at Mississippi State

  • Roster Strength: LSU 88.41 (6), Mississippi State 87.18 (12)
  • 247Sports Rating: LSU .9045 (4), Mississippi State .8599 (23)
  • Team Talent Composite: LSU 906.17 (5), Mississippi State 732.68 (23)

Oregon (-3) at Washington

  • Roster Strength: Oregon 88.11 (8), Washington 87.27 (14)
  • 247Sports Rating: Oregon .8690 (19), Washington .8859 (13)
  • Team Talent Composite: Oregon 817.70 (17), Washington 801.33 (19)

Temple at SMU (-7.5)

  • Roster Strength: SMU 84.77 (33), Temple 82.34 (66)
  • 247Sports Rating: SMU .8101 (72), Temple .8043 (76)
  • Team Talent Composite: SMU 565.15 (64), Temple 490.46 (78)

Minnesota (-28) at Rutgers

  • Roster Strength: Minnesota 84.61 (35), Rutgers 79.37 (94)
  • 247Sports Rating: Minnesota .8436 (39), Rutgers .8322 (55)
  • Team Talent Composite: Minnesota 621.36 (46), Rutgers 587.28 (58)

Tulsa at Cincinnati (-17)

  • Roster Strength: Cincinnati 82.31 (67), Tulsa 80.67 (81)
  • 247Sports Rating: Cincinnati .8154 (68), Tulsa .7951 (90)
  • Team Talent Composite: Cincinnati 576.61 (62), Tulsa 424.54 (96)

ULM at Appalachian State (-15)

  • Roster Strength: Appalachian State 81.43 (75), ULM 80.34 (85)
  • 247Sports Rating: ULM .7785 (112), Appalachian State .7776 (115)
  • Team Talent Composite: Appalachian State 412.32 (101), ULM 346.03 (117)

USF at Navy (-15)

  • Roster Strength: USF 83.25 (58), Navy 76.72 (122)
  • 247Sports Rating: USF .8253 (64), Navy .7712 (124)
  • Team Talent Composite: USF 559.66 (69), Navy 335.40 (119)

Buffalo (-17.5) at Akron

  • Roster Strength: Akron 76.56 (125), Buffalo 75.14 (128)
  • 247Sports Rating: Buffalo .7751 (117), Akron .7714 (123)
  • Team Talent Composite: Akron 312.81 (124), Buffalo 284.74 (126)

North Carolina (-3.5) at Virginia Tech

  • Roster Strength: Virginia Tech 84.66 (37), North Carolina 82.73 (60)
  • 247Sports Rating: Virginia Tech .8624 (22), North Carolina .8585 (24)
  • Team Talent Composite: North Carolina 697.75 (28), Virginia Tech 696.39 (29)

Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech (-1)

  • Roster Strength: Louisiana Tech 83.49 (50), Southern Miss 79.48 (92)
  • 247Sports Rating: Louisiana Tech .8047 (75), Southern Miss .7843 (100)
  • Team Talent Composite: Louisiana Tech 501.25 (78), Southern Miss 456.29 (89)

Indiana (-6) at Maryland

  • Roster Strength: Maryland 84.53 (36), Indiana 82.25 (65)
  • 247Sports Rating: Maryland .8557 (27), Indiana .8438 (38)
  • Team Talent Composite: Maryland 703.94 (27), Indiana 603.81 (53)

Duke at Virginia (-3)

  • Roster Strength: Duke 84.82 (35), Virginia 83.60 (49)
  • 247Sports Rating: Duke .8485 (34), Virginia .8355 (53)
  • Team Talent Composite: Duke 633.24 (44), Virginia 580.28 (59)

Baylor at Oklahoma State (-4)

  • Roster Strength: Baylor 86.64 (18), Oklahoma State 84.04 (39)
  • 247Sports Rating: Baylor .8488 (33), Oklahoma State .8407 (45)
  • Team Talent Composite: Baylor 668.90 (35), Oklahoma State 644.42 (39)

Missouri (-21) at Vanderbilt

  • Roster Strength: Missouri 86.19 (21), Vanderbilt 84.20 (41)
  • 247Sports Rating: Missouri .8407 (44), Vanderbilt .8356 (52)
  • Team Talent Composite: Missouri 642.83 (40), Vanderbilt 603.40 (53)

Middle Tennessee at North Texas (-7.5)

  • Roster Strength: North Texas 81.31 (76), Middle Tennessee 80.56 (82)
  • 247Sports Rating: Middle Tennessee .7960 (88), North Texas .7959 (89)
  • Team Talent Composite: North Texas 457.24 (88), Middle Tennessee 451.24 (91)

Old Dominion at UAB (-16)

  • Roster Strength: UAB 79.46 (96), Old Dominion 76.86 (120)
  • 247Sports Rating: UAB .7842 (101), Old Dominion .7781 (114)
  • Team Talent Composite: UAB 435.97 (94), Old Dominion 373.58 (110)

Charlotte at WKU (-8.5)

  • Roster Strength: Charlotte 79.21 (96), WKU 79.07 (108)
  • 247Sports Rating: WKU .7935 (91), Charlotte .7728 (120)
  • Team Talent Composite: WKU 490.01 (78), Charlotte 386.38 (109)

Arizona State at Utah (-14)

  • Roster Strength: Arizona State 86.05 (21), Utah 85.56 (26)
  • 247Sports Rating: Arizona State .8550 (28), Utah .8358 (51)
  • Team Talent Composite: Arizona State 686.44 (32), Utah 620.35 (47)

Kentucky at Georgia (-25)

  • Roster Strength: Georgia 90.15 (5), Kentucky 82.15 (68)
  • 247Sports Rating: Georgia .9136 (3), Kentucky .8419 (41)
  • Team Talent Composite: Georgia 960.16 (3), Kentucky 672.74 (34)

Rice (-4.5) at UTSA

  • Roster Strength: UTSA 75.96 (127), Rice 75.08 (129)
  • 247Sports Rating: UTSA .7933 (92), Rice .7783 (113)
  • Team Talent Composite: UTSA 471.36 (84), Rice 397.04 (107)

Kansas at Texas (-21)

  • Roster Strength: Texas 86.90 (15), Kansas 82.81 (59)
  • 247Sports Rating: Texas .8938 (7), Kansas .8131 (69)
  • Team Talent Composite: Texas 877.91 (7), Kansas 528.62 (74)

East Carolina at UCF (-33)

  • Roster Strength: UCF 85.16 (30), East Carolina 78.51 (103)
  • 247Sports Rating: UCF .8292 (60), East Carolina .8005 (82)
  • Team Talent Composite: UCF 598.57 (54), East Carolina 468.23 (85)

San Diego State (-8) at San Jose State

  • Roster Strength: San Diego State 79.75 (91), San Jose State 78.25 (110)
  • 247Sports Rating: San Diego State .8030 (78), San Jose State .7823 (104)
  • Team Talent Composite: San Diego State 504.19 (77), San Jose State 427.04 (96)

Tulane at Memphis (-4)

  • Roster Strength: Memphis 83.14 (55), Tulane 82.31 (68)
  • 247Sports Rating: Memphis .8112 (70), Tulane .8016 (81)
  • Team Talent Composite: Memphis 551.97 (71), Tulane 486.98 (81)

Western Michigan (-9) at Eastern Michigan

  • Roster Strength: Western Michigan 84.76 (33), Eastern Michigan 78.12 (109)
  • 247Sports Rating: Western Michigan .8018 (79), Eastern Michigan .7749 (118)
  • Team Talent Composite: Western Michigan 452.05 (90), Eastern Michigan 317.49 (121)

Colorado at Washington State (-12.5)

  • Roster Strength: Colorado 84.01 (44), Washington State 82.77 (60)
  • 247Sports Rating: Colorado .8315 (56), Washington State .8216 (66)
  • Team Talent Composite: Colorado 614.27 (48), Washington State 556.27 (70)

Army (-5) at Georgia State

  • Roster Strength: Georgia State 77.49 (115), Army 76.32 (125)
  • 247Sports Rating: Georgia State .7852 (99), Army .7508 (128)
  • Team Talent Composite: Georgia State 369.05 (112), Army 265.19 (128)

UTEP at FIU (-24)

  • Roster Strength: FIU 82.67 (63), UTEP 75.08 (120)
  • 247Sports Rating: FIU .7997 (83), UTEP .7668 (126)
  • Team Talent Composite: FIU 532.88 (73), UTEP 355.31 (115)

Michigan at Penn State (-9)

  • Roster Strength: Michigan 88.33 (7), Penn State 86.19 (22)
  • 247Sports Rating: Penn State .8874 (11), Michigan .8702 (18)
  • Team Talent Composite: Penn State 857.34 (10), Michigan 853.40 (11)

Texas A&M (-6.5) at Ole Miss

  • Roster Strength: Texas A&M 86.80 (17), Ole Miss 85.39 (28)
  • 247Sports Rating: Texas A&M .8810 (15), Ole Miss .8570 (25)
  • Team Talent Composite: Texas A&M 848.89 (12), Ole Miss 717.98 (25)

Florida State at Wake Forest (-1.5)

  • Roster Strength: Florida State 87.53 (10), Wake Forest 85.41 (26)
  • 247Sports Rating: Florida State .8938 (6), Wake Forest .8328 (54)
  • Team Talent Composite: Florida State 878.07 (6), Wake Forest 563.24 (65)

Tennessee at Alabama (-34.5)

  • Roster Strength: Alabama 91.23 (3), Tennessee 85.83 (23)
  • 247Sports Rating: Alabama .9224 (1), Tennessee .8802 (16)
  • Team Talent Composite: Alabama 984.96 (1), Tennessee 830.34 (16)

Arizona at USC (-10)

  • Roster Strength: USC 86.38 (19), Arizona 83.76 (49)
  • 247Sports Rating: USC .8922 (8), Arizona .8265 (62)
  • Team Talent Composite: USC 915.56 (4), Arizona 570.89 (63)

Boise State (-7) at BYU

  • Roster Strength: Boise State 80.37 (86), BYU 79.86 (88)
  • 247Sports Rating: Boise State .8213 (67), BYU .8062 (74)
  • Team Talent Composite: Boise State 561.42 (67), BYU 560.78 (68)

Nevada at Utah State (-21)

  • Roster Strength: Utah State 82.86 (57), Nevada 77.32 (117)
  • 247Sports Rating: Nevada .7730 (119), Utah State .7727 (122)
  • Team Talent Composite: Nevada 461.96 (87), Utah State 424.16 (97)

Air Force (-3) at Hawai’i

  • Roster Strength: Hawaii 78.97 (97), Air Force 77.75 (112)
  • 247Sports Rating: Hawaii .7765 (116), Air Force .7428 (129)
  • Team Talent Composite: Hawaii 420.99 (98), Air Force 151.86 (131)

Best Bets

  • Kent State +7.5 at Ohio
  • Toledo +2.5 at Ball State
  • South Florida +15 at Navy
  • Akron +17.5 vs. Buffalo
  • Virginia Tech +3.5 vs. North Carolina
  • Louisiana Tech -1 vs. Southern Miss
  • Maryland +6 vs. Indiana
  • Baylor +4 at Oklahoma State
  • Middle Tennessee State +7.5 at North Texas
  • Arizona State +14 at Utah
  • UTSA +4.5 vs. Rice
  • Colorado +12.5 at Washington State
  • Georgia State +5 vs. Army
  • Michigan +9 at Penn State
  • Florida State +1.5 at Wake Forest