Vanderbilt (9-2 straight up, 8-2-1 against the spread) will find out where it stands in the College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday night. The Commodores were #14 before blasting Kentucky 45-17 as seven-point home favorites this past Saturday.
Nobody in front of Vandy lost this past weekend, although #12 Utah was fortunate to rally from a double-digit deficit with less than three minutes to remaining to pull out a 51-47 comeback win over Kansas St.
Clark Lea’s team shouldn’t have to concern itself with anyone jumping ahead of it since #15 USC and #16 Ga. Tech lost by double-digit margins Saturday night.
Vandy can’t control what happens elsewhere, but it can add to its resume with a road win over #20 Tennessee, which figures to move up tomorrow night following its 31-11 win at Florida. The Volunteers ended a 10-game losing streak at The Swamp with their first win in Gainesville since 2003.
As of Monday afternoon, most books had Tennessee (8-3 SU, 4-6-1 ATS) installed as a 2.5 or three-point home favorite vs. Vandy. The total was in the 64.5 to 65.5 range, while the Commodores were +125 on the money line.
Vandy raced out to a 17-0 lead on Kentucky this past Saturday night in Nashville, led 24-3 at halftime and coasted to a 45-17 win as a seven-point home favorite. The Commodores snapped a three-game winning streak for the Wildcats, who fell to 5-6 for the year.
Senior quarterback Diego Pavia was the catalyst, completing 33-of-39 passes for 484 yards and five touchdowns compared to only one interception. He added a team-high 48 rushing yards and one TD on 15 attempts.
WR Tre Richardson had six receptions for 159 yards and three TDs, while Junior Sherrill had eight catches for 115 yards and one TD. WR Richie Hoskins had a 32-yard TD grab.
Tennessee jumped all over Florida in the opening quarter. The Vols scored TDs on both of their possessions and forced UF into consecutive three and outs offensively. They extended their lead to 21-0 early in the second quarter before stopping the Gators on downs near midfield.
Josh Heupel’s team went up 28-0 on a four-play, 46-yard drive and got a field goal with two seconds left to make it 31-0 at halftime. The Vols coasted to victory chewing up clock in the second half.
QB Joey Aguilar completed 17-of-22 throws for 204 yards and one TD without an interception. RB DeSean Bishop had 116 rushing yards and two TDs on 24 carries, and RB Star Thomas added 71 rushing yards and one TD on nine attempts.
Vandy is 2-2 SU and 2-1-1 ATS in four road games this season, but there’s no shame in either defeat at Alabama (30-14 in an extremely misleading final score) or at Texas (34-31). The Commodores own a 6-1-1 ATS record with four outright victories in eight games as road underdogs since Diego Pavia took over as their starting QB at the start of the 2024 campaign.
Lea’s team has been an underdog 14 times with Pavia under center, compiling a 10-3-1 ATS record with seven outright victories. Vandy has won four of its last five games while going 4-0-1 ATS since its loss at Alabama.
The Commodores owns home wins over LSU (31-24), Missouri (17-10), Auburn (45-38 in overtime) and Kentucky in that span, in addition to the loss in Austin. Pavia has made a strong push into Heisman Trophy contention in recent weeks.
The transfer from New Mexico St. has produced 365, 377 and 484 passing yards in Vandy’s last three contests, throwing 11 TD passes compared to only one interception. He has six rushing TDs in the Commodores’ last five games, and he had 112 rushing yards on 18 attempts in the OT win over Auburn.
For the season, Pavia has completed 224-of-312 passes (71.8%) for 2,924 yards with a 26/6 TD-INT ratio. He has 661 rushing yards, eight TDs and a 5.0 yards-per-carry average.
In 51 career games, Pavia has connected on 62.0 percent of his passes for 9,640 yards with an 85/25 TD-INT ratio. He has 2,893 career rushing yards, 29 TDs and a 4.9 YPC average.
Tennessee (8-3 SU, 4-6-1 ATS) is 4-2 SU at home, but it has only one spread cover and a 1-4-1 ATS mark at Neyland Stadium. The Vols are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as favorites, and they’re 2-6 ATS in their last eight contests regardless of their role as favorites or underdogs.
When these teams met in Nashville last year, Tennessee fell behind 14-0 in the first five minutes and trailed 17-7 at end of the first quarter. However, the Vols outscored Vandy 17-0 in the second quarter to take a 24-17 halftime advantage.
They extended that lead to 31-17 midway through the third and eventually collected a 36-23 win as 10-point road favorites. UT has won six in a row in this rivalry by margins of at least 13 points, but it only 3-3 ATS in that span.
Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
PREDICTION: I’ll risk 1.65 units to win 1.5 units on Vandy +3 at Tennessee.