As of early Wednesday morning, most books had Tennessee (4-1 straight up, 2-2-1 against the spread) listed as a 12.5-point home favorite for Saturday’s SEC showdown vs. Arkansas. The total was 68.5 points, while the Razorbacks were in the +360 to +400 range on the money line.
Both teams have had two weeks to prepare for this matchup. The Volunteers are off a 41-34 overtime win at Mississippi St. as a 7.5-point road favorite.
As for the Hogs, they were last seen taking a 56-13 shellacking vs. Notre Dame as 5.5-point home underdogs. The blowout defeat was their third loss in a row and resulted in sixth-year head coach Sam Pittman being fired the next day.
As expected, former Arkansas (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS) head coach and Pittman’s second-year offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino was named the interim head coach. With seven games left on the schedule, the 64-year-old Petrino has October and November as an audition to see if he can recapture the magic he brought to this program during his previous tenure.
On Dec. 10 of 2007, Petrino famously left the Atlanta Falcons in the early morning hours after taking an assbeating from the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football. Even with three games left in the season, Petrino bolted The ATL for Fayetteville.
Just 24 hours after being on ESPN for MNF, Petrino was live on Sports Center calling the Hogs in a surreal scene. After a 5-7 record in Year 1, Petrino got the program humming in a hurry. He went 8-5, 10-3 and 11-2 in the next three seasons.
In fact, the Razorbacks produced a 22-6 record in his last 28 games as head coach. During the 2011 campaign, their only defeats came at third-ranked Alabama and at top-ranked LSU. Those teams ended up meeting in the BCS Championship Game in New Orleans.
But Petrino’s tenure at Arkansas quite literally came to a crashing halt in a motorcycle accident. The crash left Petrino battered and bruised on April 1 of 2012.
When his story of being alone on the motorcycle started to unravel several days later, Petrino was quickly in hot water with former AD Jeff Long. As it turned out, Petrino had company on his bike in the form of his mistress Jessica Dorrell, a former Arkansas volleyball player who had recently been hired as the football program’s student-athlete development coordinator.
As Long investigated the matter, he found out that Petrino had gifted Dorrell $20,000 and had circumvented the school’s affirmative action rules to hire her ahead of more than 100 candidates for the position. Nine days after the crash, Petrino was given a pink slip that rocked the Ozarks.
Outside of a 9-4 season in Pittman’s second year on the job, Arkansas football hasn’t tasted much success since Petrino’s exit. That’s why it says here that if he can produce a 4-3 record in the next seven games against brutal competition, Petrino will once again be the Head Hog.
That formidable challenge begins Saturday in Knoxville at 4:15 p.m. Eastern on the SEC Network.
Arkansas joined the SEC in 1992 and went 2-9 SU in its first 11 head-to-head meetings with Tennessee. However, the Razorbacks have won four in a row over the Vols and five of the last six both SU and ATS, including last year’s 19-14 win as 14-point home underdogs.
In last season’s encounter, Arkansas QB Taylen Green completed 19-of-27 passes for 266 yards before leaving the game early in the fourth quarter with a lower-body injury. Nevertheless, backup QB Malachi Singleton scored on an 11-yard TD run with 1:17 remaining to propel the Hogs to a comeback win.
That result puts Tennessee in revenge mode for this spot. During Josh Heupel’s five-year tenure, the Vols have compiled a 16-9 ATS record in 25 games as home favorites. Meanwhile, Arkansas owns a 20-12-1 ATS ledger in 33 games as a road underdog since the 2015 campaign.
The ‘over’ has produced a 5-0 record for Tennessee this year. The Vols have had combined scores of 71, 89, 85, 80 and 75 points.
The ‘over is 4-1 for the Hogs with their games netting combined scores of 69, 63, 76, 70 and 59 points.
Tennessee has produced scoring outputs of 45, 72, 41, 56 and 41 points this season. On the flip side, Arkansas has given up scoring outputs of 41 and 56 points in its only two games versus non-G5 opponents.
Ole Miss scored 41 points in Oxford on the Razorbacks, while Notre Dame had 42 points at halftime on its way to hanging 56 on the Hogs in Fayetteville two weeks ago.
The Vols lead the nation in scoring with their 51.0 points-per-game average. They’re ninth in the country in total offense (536.4 yards per game) and fifth in passing yards (337.2 YPG).
Arkansas is ranked #16 in the SEC and #110 nationally in scoring defense, giving up an average of 30.0 PPG. However, the Hogs gave up just 7 and 14 points vs. Alabama A&M and Arkansas St., respectively, in the first two weeks.
They’ve allowed an average of 43.0 PPG in their last three contests at Ole Miss, at Memphis and vs. Notre Dame. That number would rank #135 out of 136 FBS teams in scoring ‘D.’
Tennessee QB Joey Aguilar has exceeded expectations and then some since coming over from UCLA this past summer. He has completed 65.0 percent of his passes for 1,459 yards with a 13/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
PREDICTION: I’m all for betting ‘overs’ for both of these teams who have electric offenses and struggling defenses. With that said, the unit I have the least trust in is the Arkansas defense that we just saw give up six TD drives on six possessions in the first half against the Fighting Irish. Petrino fired the defensive coordinator and two other assistants on that side of the ball early last week, but I can’t see that making a big difference Saturday at Neyland Stadium. Let’s risk 2.4 units to win two units on Tennessee’s Team Total to go ‘over’ 40.5 points at a -120 price. In doing so, we eliminate Petrino and Green from the equation here and pick on the Hogs’ defense that’s been leaking like a sieve.
*Note: If there’s line movement on UT’s TT between now and Saturday, let me point out that I still like this wager as long as the number is 42 points or fewer.