Florida head football coach Billy Napier owns a 7-14 record in 21 games against Power-Four opponents during the first two seasons of his tenure. He’s 11-14 overall at one of the nation’s most storied programs.
Those abysmal numbers have been produced at a time when it’s never been easier to quickly turn a program around by using the transfer portal. Before Napier coached his first game at UF, the school opened its new state-of-the-art, 142,000 square foot football-only facility, the $85 million Heavener Football Training Center.
Therefore, it’s zero surprise that Napier is listed as the favorite to become the first college football coach fired during the 2024 season. He’s installed as the +400 ‘chalk.’
As it stands today, Florida is projected to be an underdog at least eight times while playing the country’s most difficult schedule. Therefore, if the Gators lose at home to Miami and Texas A&M in the first three weeks of the year, Napier might not make it to Jacksonville to face Georgia on Nov. 2.
Another SEC coach, Sam Pittman at Arkansas, is at the top of the market. He’s listed with the next-shortest odds at +500.
Pittman exceeded expectations in his first two seasons in the Ozarks, especially in Year 2 when the Razorbacks finished 9-4 straight up and 8-4-1 against the spread. They trounced 15th-ranked Texas by a 40-21 count, beat seventh-ranked Texas A&M 20-10, won at LSU in overtime and thumped Penn St. 24-10 at the Outback Bowl.
But in 2022, Arkansas lost four games by nine combined points, including three losses to ranked foes by seven combined points. The Hogs beat Kansas 55-53 at the Liberty Bowl to finish 7-6 SU and 6-6-1 ATS.
Things really went South last year, though, as Arkansas went 4-8 SU and 5-7 ATS. That has Pittman on a boiling hot seat going into 2024.
He’s brought in former HC Bobby Petrino as his offensive coordinator, but does BP’s presence simply provide an interim HC option that’s had more success for the program than Pittman? Only time will tell.
The next-shortest odds on the board belong to Miami’s Mario Cristobal (+600), Baylor’s Dave Aranda (+700), Vanderbilt’s Clark Lea (+800), BYU’s Kalani Sitake (+1000 or 10/1), Ohio St.’s Ryan Day (12/1), California’s Justin Wilcox (12/1), Pitt’s Pat Narduzzi (12/1), Cincinnati’s Scott Satterfield (14/1), West Virginia’s Neal Brown (14/1), South Carolina’s Shane Beamer (16/1), Virginia’s Tony Elliott (16/1), Maryland’s Mike Locksley (16/1), Clemson’s Dabo Swinney (25/1), USC’s Lincoln Riley (25/1), Oklahoma’s Brent Venables (33/1) and Colorado’s Deion Sanders (50/1).