The proverbial hot seat is college football’s best topic of the offseason. Coaches are asked about it, the media predicts who is on it and fans across the nation discuss whether or not their coach deserves to be on it.
Still, it is fun to discuss what coaches need to win now or expect to get the hook. At some schools, a coach can be on the hot seat entering each and every season, even if they are just coming off winning a national title two years earlier. Hello, Gene Chizik.
At others, winning eight games or more will get you basically tenure, even if smartphones are ruining the attendance at college football games. Greetings, Pat Fitzgerald.
So, with the 2019 season just a month away from starting, let’s take a deep look at four Power Five coaches that need to win big or face being told to turn in their playbook.
Pac-12
Clay Helton, USC (32-17 record)
Helton was deemed an underwhelming hire when he took over following the 2015 season after serving as interim coach in place of fired Steve Sarkisian. A 10-3 season in 2016 and 11-3 record in 2017 made it seem as if the Trojans’ powers made the right choice … until last year’s complete collapse.
A 1-2 start rose the flames of the fire, especially a 37-14 loss at Texas. Three straight wins eased the pressure a bit, but then the Trojans lost five out of their last six to end the season and missed out on a bowl game for the first time without a bowl sanction since 2000.
It was a surprise that Helton was brought back for 2019, but with all the drama ongoing within the USC athletic department — not to mention the university itself with the admissions scandal — maybe there wasn’t enough time to make a change. Or, a more realistic reason, no big-name coach that the Trojans brass was interested in came on the market.
We will find out quickly whether or not Helton will be employed past this season. USC opens with Fresno State and then quickly enters a tough stretch: vs. Stanford, at BYU, hosting Pac-12 preseason favorite Utah and then traveling to Washington. Start out 2-3 or, gasp, 1-4, and Helton will be given the heave-ho.
Chances of being fired: 90%
SEC
Gus Malzahn, Auburn (53-27)
Another season, another year for Malzahn to try and prove himself. The good news? He might have the best defensive line in the country. The bad news? The schedule that the Tigers face is absolutely brutal.
Looking at the first six weeks, there is a good chance that Auburn comes out even at 3-3, but it could be worse at 2-4. Oregon is a tough opener, at Texas A&M will be a mighty test as well as the trip to Florida on Oct. 5. Add in a home game against Mississippi State — a team that beat the Tigers last season — and the worst start to a season since 2012 is possible.
Malzahn, after his initial magical first season and honeymoon of a second year, has not exactly been popular with many Auburn fans. His biggest fan, former president Steven Leath, is gone, so the person who handed him the outrageous contract is no longer in power.
Most importantly, Malzahn is 4-9 against rivals Georgia and Alabama. Two more losses at home this season to the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide, which seems likely considering the two programs recent success, could seal Malzahn’s fate even if his team gets off to a good start.
All we have heard from Gus over the past several months is how HE is in control of the offense now and how HE should have never given up play-calling duties in the first place. He’s setting himself up for a showdown. Who will win: Malzahn or the powers that are who want him out?
My money is on the latter. I don’t see Malzahn getting past this season.
Chances of being fired: 95%
Big Ten
Jim Harbaugh, Michigan (38-14)
It’s not that Harbaugh hasn’t won — he has — but he hasn’t won the big one: AKA the Ohio State game. This is the fifth year of the Harbaugh Era in Ann Arbor and despite the 10-win seasons, multiple headlines, jabs at other coaches and players, the results are the results. And for a proud historic program like Michigan, coming in second place in the division isn’t cutting it.
He might have his chance this year with a favorable schedule. Ohio State, Iowa, Notre Dame and Michigan State all come to The Big House. What might separate the Wolverines from another also-ran season and a championship one is two road games: at Wisconsin and at Penn State. Harbaugh doesn’t have a signature win during his tenure at Michigan, but beating the Badgers on Sept. 21 after two non-conference games and an open date will wake up the Big Ten.
How close is Michigan to firing him? Probably not that close right now. However, a mediocre season and repeat of an 8-5 record from 2017 will put him on the cusp of either being out of coaching for a year or trying to score another NFL gig.
Chances of being fired: 50%
ACC
Willie Taggart, Florida State (5-7)
What happens when you take over a program and miss its first bowl game since 1981? You immediately put your job on the line.
Listen, from everything that has been reported and quoted out, Taggart took over a FSU program that was in deep despair from the mismanagement of Jimbo Fisher. Players were undisciplined, coaches were not on the same page and everything that could go wrong within a program went wrong.
Yet, this is FSU. This is the Tomahawk Chop and Chief Osceola planting the spear at midfield. Not competing for the ACC title — once a given in Tallahassee — is unforgivable, so you can imagine how Seminoles’ fans feel while sitting home during bowl season.
There’s also this fact: Taggart, in his one season at Oregon, wasn’t impressive either, leading the Ducks to a 7-5 record. Sure, the 2016 season in which he led South Florida to 10 wins was great, but are we sure that this guy is capable of leading a major program back to the place that all alumni and fans feel it belongs?
The $18 million buyout he’d be due after this season helps his cause to get a third year.
Chances of being fired: 30%