Let’s discuss some of last night’s action and look ahead to tonight’s card. All spreads mentioned were the current numbers as of early this morning.
–Penn St. (16-11 straight up, 14-11-2 against the spread) is in must-win mode tonight when it faces Ohio St. as a two-point road underdog. The Nittany Lions, who are 5-5 ATS with two outright wins in their 10 games as underdogs, were a part of Joe Lunardi’s ‘Next Four Out’ in his ‘Bracketology’ update from Tuesday. They’ve struggled on the road, going 2-7 SU and 3-5-1 ATS.
However, PSU’s road woes pale in comparison to Ohio St.’s (11-16 SU, 8-19 ATS) enormous issues. The Buckeyes have lost eight consecutive games and are mired in a 1-13 slump both SU and ATS in their 14 games since Jan. 5. Making matters worse, HC Chris Holtmann announced Wednesday that Zed Key needs season-ending shoulder surgery. Key averages 10.7 points, 7.5 rebounds and 1.0 blocks per game. He shoots at a 54.7 percent clip from the field.
–Northwestern (20-7 SU, 17-10 ATS) is a 5.5-point underdog tonight at Illinois. The Wildcats have won five games in a row both SU and ATS and eight of their last 10. They’re 6-2 both SU and ATS in eight road contests, including back-to-back wins at Ohio St. (69-63) and at Wisconsin (54-52). The ‘under’ has cashed in six straight games for Northwestern to improve to 17-10 overall. Also, the Wildcats have been underdogs 13 times, posting a 9-4 spread record with eight outright wins.
Illinois guard Terrence Shannon has missed back-to-back games due to a concussion and is listed as ‘questionable’ tonight. Shannon averages 17.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 1.4 steals per game.
–Rutgers (SU, ATS) is already down starting forward Mawot Mag, who sustained a season-ending injury in a 61-55 win over Michigan St. on Feb. 4. Mag was averaging 7.8 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.0 steals per game. Now the Scarlet Knights will likely be without another starter, Caleb McConnell, for a second straight game tonight vs. Michigan. McConnell (9.7 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 3.0 APG and 2.5 SPG) is ‘doubtful’ with a back issue that kept him out of Saturday’s 58-57 win at Wisconsin. He is considered one of the nation’s premier defenders.
Rutgers, a 5.5-point favorite, owns a 13-3 SU record and a 12-4 ATS mark in 16 home games. On the flip side, Michigan is only 2-5 both SU and ATS in seven road outings. The Wolverines might be without two key players in Piscataway. Jett Howard and Terrance Williams are both ‘questionable.’ Howard is the team’s second-leading scorer (14.4 PPG), while Williams averages 6.8 points and 6.1 RPG. Howard is dealing with an ankle sprain and Williams has missed back-to-back contests with a knee contusion.
-Most books have UAB (20-8 straight up, 10-15-2 against the spread) listed as a 12-point home favorite vs. Rice with a total of 158 or 158.5. The Blazers are 14-2 SU but just 6-8-1 ATS at home this year, while the Owls are 6-5 SU and 7-3-1 ATS in 11 road assignments. UAB cruised to a 70-52 win at Rice as a 1.5-point road favorite on Jan. 28. The 122 combined points stayed 32 points ‘under’ the closing total of 152. However, the Blazers were without star guard Jelly Walker, who averages 22.6 points and 4.0 assists per game. When Walker has been healthy, the ‘over’ has produced an 18-4 record for UAB this season. The ‘over’ is on a 4-0 run for the Blazers and has cashed in five of their last six games. The ‘over’ is on a 15-3 surge for Rice in its last 18 games, going 9-2 in the 11 games in which the Owls have had totals in the 150s.
–Drexel (15-14 SU, 15-12-1 ATS), a 6.5-point favorite tonight vs. Northeastern, is 11-3 SU and 9-3-1 ATS in 14 home games. Northeastern (10-17 SU, 11-16 ATS) is 3-10 SU and 5-8 ATS in 13 road assignments. The Dragons have won four games in a row over the Huskies both SU and ATS, including a 76-55 win as 3.5-point road underdogs on Jan. 14. The ‘over’ is on a 13-5 roll for Northeastern to improve to 18-9 overall.
–Max Rice buried 5-of-10 attempts from 3-point range and scored 22 of his 30 points in the second half of Boise State’s 82-77 win over New Mexico last night. The Lobos covered the spread as 5.5-point underdogs, but they allowed an 11-point lead in the first half to get away. UNM now has absolutely no room for error if it hopes to garner an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament. Richard Pitino’s team probably needs to win its last three regular-season games — vs. San Diego St., vs. Fresno St. and at Colorado St. — and add another win or two at the Mtn. West Conference Tournament in Las Vegas to be in the conversation. The 159 combined points went ‘over’ the 149.5-point total. The ‘over’ has hit at a 7-1-1 clip for the Lobos in their last nine games.
–Wisconsin picked up a big win last night by beating Iowa 64-52 as a 1.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Like most of the Big Ten (with Northwestern being a notable exception), the Hawkeyes remain horrible on the road.
-The ‘over’ has cashed in six straight games for Florida after its 82-74 loss to Kentucky as a 2.5-point home underdog last night. The 156 combined points elevated ‘over’ the 139.5-point total. The Wildcats improved to 9-3 both SU and ATS in their last 12 contests.
–LSU ended its 14-game losing streak and snapped Vanderbilt’s five-game winning streak in an 84-77 win as a 2.5-point home underdog last night in Baton Rouge. KJ Williams was the catalyst for the Tigers with 35 points and 10 rebounds.
-Here’s how I’m ranking the most attractive games on Saturday’s stacked card:
1-Arkansas at Alabama
2-Texas at Baylor
3-Saint Mary’s at Gonzaga
4-Indiana at Purdue
5-West Virginia at Kansas
6-Auburn at Kentucky
7-Kansas St. at Oklahoma St.
8-Virginia at North Carolina
9-Michigan St. at Iowa
10-Texas A&M at Mississippi St.
11-TCU at Texas Tech
-Some of Sunday’s top matchups include Northwestern at Maryland, Wisconsin at Michigan, Rutgers at Penn St., Cincinnati at Memphis, Illinois at Ohio St. and Providence at Georgetown.