Louisville vs. NC State (-9.5, 148.5); ACC at Washington, DC… If the ‘Ville hasn’t rallied by now for Kenny Payne, it’s probably not going to happen, as most ACC observers suspect that his days with the Cards are likely numbered after two desultory campaigns. That there will be no shortage of interested parties for this job that comes with plenty of upside; they’re already speculating about who the successor might be in the Courier-Journal and other regional media outlets. (Some potential names in the rumor mill include Eric Musselman, Bruce Pearl, Buzz Williams, and several other well-known commodities). To illustrate further the depths to which the ‘Ville has fallen under Payne, as w we hit Tuesday, it’s been more than a month (February 10) since the Cards won or covered a game, with seven straight losses into DC. One of the better efforts of the season actually came against the Wolfpack back on the day the NFL playoffs opened on January 13 at the KFC Yum! Center when chasing NC State into the last minutes before succumbing 89-83, which if nothing else should ensure Kevin Keatts has the attention of his squad in the rematch,. A danger here might be trusting the Wolfpack against a foe that they could still manage to understandably overlook, but NCS does have some very sharp edges with ASU transfer G D.J. Horne (16.8 ppg). Butler transfer G Jayden Taylor (who’s scored 22 or more in three of the past four games), and bruising 6-9, 275-lb former Winthrop transfer PF D.J. Burns, a punishing presence in the paint. The Cards didn’t exactly slow the Wolfpack in the first meeting, either, as NCS hit better than 54% from the floor and an even 50% (10 for 20) on mostly-clear looks beyond the arc. ACC sources suggest the Wolfpack is hungry to face a foe it can handle after losing four straight to better teams than the Cards. Mostly, however, we’d be kicking ourselves if we didn’t go against the ‘Ville one last time this season. “Totals” alert-note Pack on 6-2 “over” run, and not long ago the Cards were on a 7-1 “over” run. NC State 86 – Louisville 71 PLAY NC STATE and OVER
Jacksonville State (-3.5, 140.5) vs. Florida International; C-USA Tourney at Huntsville, AL… Slight regional edge, perhaps, for in-state JSU, and while the Gamecocks are new to C-USA this season, vet HC Ray Harper is not new to March Mayhem, having taken several entries to the Dance in the past, including JSU two years ago when campaigning in the Atlantic-Sun. Though the Gamecocks ended up slightly disappointing in their new neighborhood, they recovered from a slow 0-5 break from the gate and were good enough to roll off six straight wins at one point this season, and own a dangerous threat in explosive G KyKy Tandy (18.3 ppg), who also hits nearly 40% of his trouble and thoroughly enjoyed his first campaign under Harper after seeing very limited action the past four seasons at Xavier. Tandy also closed the regular season with a 32-point showcase vs. Sam Houston, though, as the case for much fo this season, he could have used more help, and he still rates as the Gamecocks’ only double-digit scorer. Tandy also scored a season (and career) high 35 points in the first meeting vs. FIU back on January 6, as JSU swept the season series, albeit not too comfortably (scorelines 70-63 and 77-75). Still, more to like with Harper’s team than the Golden Panthers, a pedestrian outfit that hit a couple of high notes at home this season, but is very small on the perimeter (top scorers Gs Javaunte Hawkins and Arturo Dean both just 5-11). Most of all, FIU didn’t win a conference game away from Miami…and Huntsville is a good distance from South Beach. Jacksonville State 74 – FIU 66 PLAY JSU
Sacramento State vs. Montana State (-5, 135); Big Sky at Boise… Up is down and down is up in the Big Sky Tourney, where we saw some major upsets a year ago, and the surprises have extended into this March when a pair of 8 and 10 seeds both won in shockers on Sunday night and the underdogs covered again in both of the quarters on Monday. Now, it’s another matter about the scheduling in the Big Sky, wherein last night’s winner (Montana State here, and Montana vs. Idaho State) will be playing second nights of back-to-backs vs. teams off of rest days, an angle favoring the rested teams elsewhere in conference tourney week. Whatever. Sac State was the aforementioned 10 seed to win in the upset on Sunday (shocking top seed Eastern Washington) and makes its deepest-ever foray in the Big Sky Tourney tonight. Mind, this is a team that was only 8-23 entering Boise but has been playing some of its best of the season in recent weeks, with SU wins in four of five and spread covers in an impressive seven straight. in recent games, it’s been Utah State transfer G Zee Hamoda (scored 19 in the upset of EWU) doing considerable damage, though most impressive has been that this recent surge has mostly been without intimidating top scorer 6-8 F Duncan Powell (12.1 ppg), an NC A&T transfer who hasn’t featured since February 24. In Boise, however, the Hornets have won twice while outrebounding both Idaho and EWU and holding them to barely 40% combined on their FG attempts thru the first two rounds. The Bobcats are not likely to be caught looking ahead to a possible in-state grudge match vs. the Montana in the finale, not after losing two weeks ago at home to Sac State when the Hornets again controlled the glass (37-27) and saw former Wofford transfer G Austin Patterson score 20. Yet the nature of this tourney and the recent form of the Hornets suggests this one goes down to the wire (and maybe produces another patented Big Sky surprise) in Boise. Sac State 68 – Montana State 67 PLAY SAC STATE
Gonzaga (-2, 137) vs. Saint Mary’s; WCC at Orleans Arena, Las Vegas… Here’s the rubber match we usually get in the WCC Finals. And, as usual, it’s mostly about pride as both of these sides are securely in the field of 68 (a little late in coming for the Zags, but they’re comfortably on the same side of the cut-line now after winning for a ninth straight time (including wins at Kentucky and SMC), and 14th in 15 games, in last night’s semis vs. USF at the Orleans. It was only ten days ago (March 2) that the Zags avenged their Feb. 10 home loss to the Gaels by pounding Randy Bennett’s side in Moraga. Consensus opinion is that the Zags cracked the code on SMC that night, brushing aside SMC’s noted physicality as Mark Few consistently check-mated Bennett. Specifically, Bennett was forced to come out to the perimeter and guard Zags wing Nolan Hickman, who had hit 17 of 29 triples across the previous five games. his was a bit of a change from earlier in the season when opposing coaches were almost daring Gonzaga to shoot, as Few was missing the long-range threat that injured EWU transfer Steele Venters was expected to provide this season. But Hickman’s bombardier tactics have served to open the floor in halfcourt sets, and Hickman gladly turned into a facilitator instead at Moraga with seven assists in the 70-57 cruise. Another recent move by Few, putting 6-10 Ben Gregg into the starting lineup, has forced foes to defend rampaging 6-9 Wyo transfer Graham Ike a bit differently, resulting in Ike scoring 20 or more in seven straight into last night. To better contend with Ike (who scored 21 and pulled down 10 boards at Moraga), SMC could use the brute force of 6-8 soph PF Joshua Jefferson, but unfortunately he’s sidelined with a knee injury, and the Gaels aren’t that deep up front to begin with. Like the last two years in the WCC final, when dominating rubber matches against the Gaels after splitting the reg-season meetings, expect a similar outcome at the Orleans. Gonzaga 73 – Saint Mary’s 62 PLAY GONZAGA